----- Original Message ---- From: Terry Blanton
> Cost of ownership of the Volt will justify the capital investment. ONLY if the batteries have a rock-solid replacement guarantee, and can actually exceed it - allowing one to write off the investment over many years. Anyone know what the guarantee details will be - for full replacement, or the expected life? Given the history of lithium batteries in laptop computers, this is scary. You simply cannot expect the lifetime of lithiums to be any more than the guarantee. Sony was saying "improved" for years in laptops before it turned out to be same-old, same-old. Over half the cost of the Volt is probably in the batteries, and if they need to be replaced in 4 years at $20,000 retail -- then the yearly cost of ownership has gone through the roof. After all the cost of gasoline @4 gallon for the average American is only $2,300+ per year. That is - figuring that the average passenger vehicle in the United States is getting 22.4 mpg according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the average US driver travels 13,000 miles yearly. In total, the average US driver uses 580 gallons of fuel each year = $2,300+ per year. If we assume that the cost of batteries is $20,000 and that a full replacement guarantee is only good for 50,000 miles - then the yearly amortized cost of the batteries alone - even if the electric power is FREE which it isn't of course, could end up being a lot more than the average cost of gasoline.... Not to mention the pollution is not eliminated - it is simply moved to the grid plant. A small diesel combined with a few SLA batteries seems to make more sense for both the consumer and the environment in the long run. The diesel will actually get better net efficiency - than going from grid-->home-->batteries-->vehicle, because of all the loses at every step -- so there is even less net pollution than with the Volt. Jones
