Hi Jones, This (devil's advocate's I suspect) picture you brushed might be true for the 50,000 miles battery life you assumed, but they say 150,000 miles (~10 years) in the original article posted by Jed, which is about the same as the several other new automotive lithium announcements we have heard lately.
So **even** if the battery accounts for half the cost as you assumed, which would be surprising considering its small size (16 kWh), at ~$2,000/yr it remains more economical than gasoline or diesel --especially if, following Michael's example, your boss offers to pay half of it!--, plus urban air becomes definitely healthier to breathe, not to mention the zero GHG emission if they manage to produce the electricity cleanly at the plant level. Michel 2008/9/18 Jones Beene <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > ----- Original Message ---- > From: Terry Blanton > > >> Cost of ownership of the Volt will justify the capital investment. > > > ONLY if the batteries have a rock-solid replacement guarantee, and can > actually exceed it - allowing one to write off the investment over many > years. Anyone know what the guarantee details will be - for full > replacement, or the expected life? > > Given the history of lithium batteries in laptop computers, this is scary. > > You simply cannot expect the lifetime of lithiums to be any more than the > guarantee. Sony was saying "improved" for years in laptops before it turned > out to be same-old, same-old. > > Over half the cost of the Volt is probably in the batteries, and if they > need to be replaced in 4 years at $20,000 retail -- then the yearly cost of > ownership has gone through the roof. > > After all the cost of gasoline @4 gallon for the average American is only > $2,300+ per year. > > That is - figuring that the average passenger vehicle in the United States > is getting 22.4 mpg according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and > the average US driver travels 13,000 miles yearly. In total, the average US > driver uses 580 gallons of fuel each year = $2,300+ per year. > > If we assume that the cost of batteries is $20,000 and that a full > replacement guarantee is only good for 50,000 miles - then the yearly > amortized cost of the batteries alone - even if the electric power is FREE > which it isn't of course, could end up being a lot more than the average > cost of gasoline.... > > Not to mention the pollution is not eliminated - it is simply moved to the > grid plant. > > A small diesel combined with a few SLA batteries seems to make more sense > for both the consumer and the environment in the long run. > > The diesel will actually get better net efficiency - than going from > grid-->home-->batteries-->vehicle, because of all the loses at every step -- > so there is even less net pollution than with the Volt. > > Jones > > > >
