Howdy Jones,
Our companies tries to practice a rule of thumb that states things change
every seven years. Since it takes 3 1/2 years to plan a business move, it
requires that planning for the next business move begin 3 1/2 years into
the operation so that as 7 years operation is complete we are ready to start
the next plan. Sounds elementary.. until business experience teaches that
either one leads change OR change drags one kicking and screaming into the
next change. Rudders only work on boats.
There is a strange edict recorded way back in the Bible regarding 7 years..
seems the land was meant to rest every 7 years.. and an even stranger edict
at the end of every 49 years.. the nation was to declare a year of Jubilee
and all debts were cancelled and all land returned to the respective tribal
family. I kinda waited to see if Israel would give it a try 1948+ 49= 1997
with the Jubilee year start in 1998.. well so much for thinking out loud.
Sometimes when I watch a really smart fellow like the new sec of treasury
stand up and admit he don't have a clue what to do.. well.. I think back
again about that 7 year and 49 year thing and wonder if there may be some
truth to it. Used to be the old time scribes that recorded laws and history
were honor bound to tell the truth. Maybe they knew something so important
they left a clue for history.
I sure have been reading a lot about ole Darwin lately. Seems he's got a
handle on how things got started... Does anybody know if he's still hanging
around wiith his drinking buddies back in London.. maybe they could offer
some evolutionary clues on economics, cuz we sure need to know more about
money and jobs than we do about how a dinasour turned into a bird while
nobody was looking with a cell phone camera.
Richard
Jones wrote,
Jack Smith has mentioned Kondratieff Waves/ and economic long cycles
before. These are generally 55+ years in duration. Kuznets, another
esteemed economist of an earlier age, had the economic cycles shorter.
Hopefully neither cycle is even close to a natural "law" but more like an
amusing anecdote.
Is there now in 2009 a better planning model for this long cycle and one
which transcends the blips, and on which BO is basing his moves? Can the
Admin effectively overcome, or short-circuit, the natural down cycle with
pro-active legislation and spending- even if they get all the numbers
right ?
