Jones wrote: Jack Smith has mentioned Kondratieff Waves/ and economic long cycles before. These are generally 55+ years in duration. Kuznets, another esteemed economist of an earlier age, had the economic cycles shorter. Hopefully neither cycle is even close to a natural "law" but more like an amusing anecdote.
Hi All, The problem I have with interpreting the Kondratieff wave as the result of economic activity, as Schumpeter did with his 'innovation theory', is that the K-wave is best delinieated by wars. Here is the list of trough wars with accompanying slogans: 1794, Ohio, The Battle of Fallen Timbers 1846, Oregon, "Fifty-Four Forty or Fight" ---- Mexico, "Remember the Alamo" 1898, Havana Harbor, "Remember The Maine" 1950, Korea, "Better Dead than Red" 2001, New York City, Twin Towers, "Bring our enemies to justice, or bring justice to our enemies" A trough war marks the end of one approximately 55-year cycle and the beginning of the next upswing. Of course there are lttle cyles within larger cycles (maybe the whole thing is fractal). The most recent longer wave is the one that terminated in 1914 - 1945, analogous to the 30-years war: 1618 - 1648. So the massive swindles (trillions for "asset-backed" securities, the Iraq War, foreign oil, credit cards, etc.) which have brought us to our knees, probably represent a recurring theme which is superimposed on the K-wave. My hunch is that the K-wave will bring the ship of state (a kayak?) popping to the surface; but we will all have to lend a hand. Jack Smith ------------------- Source: Bill Arnold Sent: 10 February 2009 To: [email protected] ``The following is at cyclesi webpage, written by Ray Tomes, http://groups.yahoo.com/group/cyclesi/ [Also] http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/ Now, note, that the KIND OF CYCLES Ray Tomes and I are into discussing are all listed there. Dewey was the president of the original Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Wheeler is a cycles scientist, like Dewey, who is well known in cycles research on the historic cycles charts over long periods of time. Dewey's books contain extensives charts seeking correlations just as Wheeler. Kondratieff, Gann and Elliott wave/cycle charts are historic for cycle scientist.''
