Jed Rothwell wrote: > See: > > http://superwavefusion.com/ Hi, They say they are leaders in the field; others also say it. They say they have achieved 50% reproducibility. If 20 years were needed to achieve 50% reproducibility, we can expect that less than 20 years will be needed to achieve 100% reproducibility. Because the beginnings in a new field are the most difficult part, more people and knowledge is summed up over time, experiments are better understood over time, etc. etc.
We can suppose that the degree of reproducibility is an exponential function of time. In year "0" (1989) we had low reproducibility. Let's say: 1% (0.01) 20 years later, we have 0.5 Exponential regression using those values gives us the formula *r = 0.01 e^1.956011503·10^-1 y where r reproducibility, and y number of years. *^Calculating y for r=1, gives: y=ln(1/0.01)/0.1956011503 = 23.54 That is, in 3 years and a half 100% reproducible cold fusion will be achieved. Probably the truth is more between the lineal function (20 more years) and some exponential of some kind. Averaging both values, we get around 10 / 12 years. A good way to make a better estimate would be to know how reproducible was cold fusion in general 10 years ago. Another possibility is that the function is of the "square root" type, that is, total reproducibility is not achieved, only asymptotic. Then we can ask when 90% reproducibility would be achieved. ¿Would you buy a generator that works nine out of ten times? I would. I would wait a little bit and try to start it again; as a matter of fact, we do exactly that actually with many conventional explosion motors.
