On Sep 28, 2009, at 10:51 AM, Jones Beene wrote:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/27/business/27novel.html?em
....yes, these numbers are in line with present quotes: A system
meets half
the power needs of a typical California home costs roughly $20,000 to
install after rebates...
.... assuming rebates will return, which they have not, to date.
In sunny CA this will generate about 2,400 kilowatt hours of
electricity a
year, enough to cover a quarter to a third of a typical electric
bill... (in
a home heated by natural gas, with no AC).
Solar roofs work best in warm climates to supplement air conditioning
power, because the demand matches the supply.
The average power rate is about 11 cents per KWhr so your $20,000
investment
will give you a savings of a whopping $250 per year for many years
to come
.... but oops, that is if you do not include interest.
The significant development is the *replacement* of building
materials with solar active materials. In looking at the economics
it is only the *incremental* cost for solar that counts. The cost of
the roofing materials replaced can thus be deducted from the true
cost. In addition, solar elements can have much longer lifetimes and
storm viability as compared to roofing shingles or even rooftop
mounted panels. It always struck me as stupid to see a large array of
solar panels mounted over a perfectly good roof. This advance is
just a beginning of what should be a bonanza in solar construction
materials, changes in building codes, architecture, etc. It is just
a matter of time before big time manufacturing sets in and a large
pool of construction workers get trained. As rooftops age and need
replacing, total solar roofs, will become a financially viable
option, as well as solar integrated siding and windows.
IOW there is a severe negative return every year, the cells will never
pay-off, not ever, even if they last 50 years (they will not) since
the
accumulated interest, by the time the power rate quadruples (it may
quadruples in about 25 years) will have put your real investment
into the
stratosphere ...
You would be better off to invest in some beach property in Alaska ;-)
I would love to own some beach front property here. It is very
expensive!
At least they might find oil under it...
Unlike most states, all mineral rights here belong to all the people
of Alaska, not the land owners.
or better yet, convert your
swimming pool into an Algoil pond. That might actually pay off in a
few
years ...
Jones
The significance of the article is not where we are but where we are
headed. It is one more step toward integrated solar, which should
eventually drop below $1 a watt in net cost.
Best regards,
Horace Heffner
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
