On Oct 9, 2009, at 7:56 AM, Abd ul-Rahman Lomax wrote:
• The amount of helium observed in the gas stream is generally
within a factor of about 2 less than would be expected for a
reaction mechanism consistent with D+D → 4He.
Which is of interest particularly with, say, the Takahashi theory
that a primary mechanism may be the reaction 4d -> Be-8 -> 2He-4,
which is a reaction that requires no messy momentum transfer to the
lattice, with the alpha particles being generated with equal and
opposite momentum; so half of them would be on a vector inward to
the cathode and would be absorbed there and generally unable to
easily escape.
A theory that requires 11.9 MeV alphas makes no sense at all in light
of many experiments that show no such alphas. This especially in
light of the fact that the events to date appear to be located near
cathode the surface. Half of those alphas are directed outwardly.
It simply is very difficult to establish with high sigma results
whether energy is produced at 23.8 MeV or 18.8 MeV per He4, or
something in between.
Storms reports (2007, p. 90), from SRI, in a single experiment
where great care was taken to recover as much helium as possible,
24.8 +/- 2.5 MeV/He-4, which is consistent with the 23.8 value and
not with 18.8. Storms concludes that the Q value is 25 +/- 5 MeV/
He-4, based on "all measurements," i.e., all the reports with
sufficient information to analyze. As Storms notes, this certainly
does not prove that the reaction is the 2d fusion reaction that,
with no loss of energy through gamma emission, would predict 23.8,
other reactions are possible and, if course, I'll note the reaction
with the Be-8 intermediary would do exactly that.
This looks like there may be some wishful thinking involved. It is a
bit of an ad hoc approach to "combine" both the averages and
deviation for the results of multiple experiments in multiple labs
and expect anything meaningful to arise from it. Consider this
statement concerning one of the experiments "averaged":
"If the gross values are combined, an upper limit of of <43+-12 Mev/
He is obtained. If 50% of the helium is assumed to be retained by
solid palladium when this was used, this value is reduced to 21+-12
MeV/He." This is nonsensical because even an absolutely exact energy
measurement combined with an estimate of helium production with 95%
confidence interval of +-30% yields a confidence interval of +-30%.
It is not appropriate to just carry the same fixed error of +-12 MeV
forward from the helium measurement alone, and just ignore the
contribution of the error in the estimate of the residual helium. The
experiment that obtained 24.8 MeV +- 2.5 MeV was one of a kind, not
replicated. Further, the method of gathering the helium from the
electrode was deloading and loading the cathode several times, and
each event compounds any errors due to leakage or contamination of
the hydrogen source, and still does not account for any helium that
might remain in or even be be permanently locked in the cathode. Just
because the error bars on the helium measurement mass spec. device is
tight does not mean the error bars for the experiment as a whole are
tight.
Even if it is meaningful, the "combined" result of (25 MeV +- 5 MeV)/
He does not specify how many sigma the +-5 MMeV represents. If the
+-5 error is only one sigma, then it is only 68.2% likely the mean is
between 20 and 30 MeV/He. Possibly Ed Storms can help clarify if the
values are 1 or 3 sigma, etc. A mean reaction energy of anything
less than 23.8 MeV would be very strong evidence in support of the
deflation fusion theory. Even the value of 24.8+-2.5 MeV does not
exclude the deflation fusion theory, as 22.3 MeV would be convincing
evidence if later proved to a high degree of precision.
It is of possible significance that the standard deviation of the sum
of X + Y can be greater than the standard deviations of either random
variable X or Y. In paricular:
stdev(X + Y) = sqrt(var(X)+var(y)+2*cov(X,Y))
Given that the sums being combined are all from similar experiments,
we would at least expect a positive covariance. This means that when
random variables with similar sigmas are added, the resulting sigma
increases by at least 41% and possibly more due the the covariance
contribution.
Lastly, it is notable that in the deflation fusion theory that the
energy of the He* at the time of the He* prospective fission and the
total energy of the reaction are not equal. The former is at or near
a minimum, due to the vacuum energy exchange being at a maximum,
while the latter also includes the energy returned from the vacuum in
the form of zero point energy supplied to the electron as it re-
inflates its wave function and radiates in the process. The energy
determining the branching ratios is not the final enthalpy produced
by the experiment. This is yet another reason that tritium doping
experiments are essential, because neutron energy spectra can be
determined with a high degree of accuracy, which gives a good look at
the energy available in the He* nucleus at the moment of fission. If
the mean energy of the neutron is less than 14.1 MeV, then the mean
energy of the alphas have to be less than 3.5 MeV for the D+T
reactions, in order for COM to be observed if no electron is
involved, and the total energy of the reaction is then known to not
support a conventional fusion explanation.
Best regards,
Horace Heffner
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
