I did not think much of the book "The Black Swan." I am pretty familiar with most of the examples given by the author. Some people were surprised by them, but others were not. I was not, in some cases. Also, I thought the author has an ego problem.
Anyway, the discovery of cold fusion by F&P was definitely a black swan event, even to F&P themselves, I think. It was one of the blackest swans in history. However Rossi is not a black swan in my opinion. At least, not to me, or to the readers here. Something like this has been likely for years. It is a extrapolation or extension of Arata and Piantelli. That is not to say I could have predicted this particular event, with this particular type of nano-particle (whatever type it is!). I mean that something along these lines is not a surprise. It will be a huge surprise to most members of the public, and to the opposition, but that does not make it a black swan as defined in the book. - Jed
