<[email protected]> wrote: I just read "The Coming Population Crash" by Fred Pearce. It is quite > a surprise that all developed countries are ( China and India following > soon) loosing population.
They are not losing population yet. Look at the stats carefully. China is still gaining at 0.5% per year. In absolute numbers that is a lot of people. After you reduce the fertility rate it takes a while before that begins to actually reduce annual growth, especially when overall health is improving and lifespans are increasing. However, if the population that is increasing is mainly over 40, this group will not have many more children, so when they die in 20 to 40 years, population will fall. In a generation, China and Japan may face a tremendous increase in old people without enough young, working age to support them. Following this they may have a sudden drop in population. That is a problem but I think improved robots can help take care of the elderly, and those places are too crowded now, so a drop in population would make life easier in the long term. - Jed
