I completely and utterly agree that Rossi and Defkalion could not have both
been telling the truth.
So, now for assumptions that may or may not be accurate, based entirely on
opinion, supposition, wild speculation, and a little bit of a "gut feeling":
It is possible that Defkalion was making, let's be diplomatic and say
"forward-looking statements", based on a Rossi delivery schedule. They may
have intended to build their own cores, after receipt of Rossi's 1 MW
"demonstration" reactor. Suppose they had worked on it quite a bit with Rossi
and had seen real gains, but that Rossi never had the level of control that
he'd claimed. When Rossi failed to deliver a controllable unit (and became more
of a liability with shoddy, unsanctioned demonstrations), they proceeded with
their in-house development.
It's important to note that the number of claims of independent replication of
Ni-H gains is indeed growing. Defkalion MAY have had success in spooling up
and controlling the reaction, in a way that Rossi never could. There is no
evidence to support this, but the spectre of independent testing should not be
ignored.
I believe (based solely on my personal interpretations of Rossi's past alleged
transgressions) that Rossi is perfectly capable of running a scam without an
exit strategy. I have serious doubts that the Defkalion board are cut from the
same cloth. I can't imagine them staying in the game without a reason for
playing.
When the silence fell upon DGT (from July to October), I'd assumed that they
were dead in the water. Disappearance would be the logical aftermath if Rossi
was unable to supply the necessary reactor. Their reemergence and statements
lead me to believe that they believe that they have/will have a viable product.
They cannot be "fooled" into thinking that the product works if they are
producing the reactor themselves.
As a caveat, they are certainly looking to license the technology, so the
revenue stream is not predicated on selling a viable product. This opens the
potential for a product-less income, but I see that option as unlikely. My
confidence level would be much lower if they were not producing near-term
timetables. That they are open to independent testing, and have all ready have
a "site survey" is further evidence that they will be pushing forward. I know
that Jed's revelations were not "evidence" of Defkalion's claims, but they have
done a great deal to add weight in Defkalion's favor.
Like so many other times in this unfolding epic, we just have to wait-and-see.
But, if I were playing a game of chance (with long odds), my money would be on
"Green", and not "Red".
