Alain wrote: "since energy is $5-7Tn and GDP is $70Tn, the potential saving on energy is around 10%"
"maybe I miss the point?" Did you consider the following??? Energy is to economies as physics is to science. it is FUNDAMENTAL, and everything is built on top of it. A significant change to a fundamental will propagate to anything built using that fundamental. *If* LENR is able to deliver very cheap energy, then the cost of ALL PRODUCTS AND SERVICES will also go down. manufacturing requires ENERGY, moving those manufactured products to the end consumer (i.e., transportation) requires ENERGY (gas/diesel). If competition is allowed to take its course, the cost of nearly everything will come down. But the ramifications of this are much more complex, and the reality of how this would affect different aspects of life are hard to predict. my attitude at this point is that much disruption will happen in the short term, but long term the average person will be much better off. we are the most adaptable species on the planet, and we will adapt; economies will adapt; financial markets will adapt. -Mark From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Alain Sepeda Sent: Wednesday, July 18, 2012 8:02 AM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: [Vo]:Migrant Workers in China Face Competition from Robots just to guive data I've made some quick computation http://www.lenrforum.eu/viewtopic.php?f=3 <http://www.lenrforum.eu/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=27&p=1139#p1139> &t=27&p=1139#p1139 since energy is $5-7Tn and GDP is $70Tn, the potential saving on energy is around 10%, that you can interpret as productivity increase. The replacement of world energy source is estimated around 15% of GDP, that can easily be self-financed by the saving. Energy is not free, but few maintenance, ridiculous matter, and some investment. It will be important shock, but not so huge. at most 10% of course you can expect that the technology will become even cheaper, but even if LENR get to zero, the turbines, cooling and alike will stay as expensive (and I have under estimated their cost). Some gain might came from the side-effect of LENR, like fewer pollution, longer autonomy, sociological consequence of easier access to food, water, health, heat... maybe is it there the biggest potential of productivity gain. Now I'm less enthusiast, yet it will very good, energy does not seems to be so important... 10% only. maybe I miss the point?
