Long term deflation? Harry
On Wed, Jul 18, 2012 at 12:23 PM, MarkI-ZeroPoint <zeropo...@charter.net> wrote: > Alain wrote: > > “since energy is $5-7Tn and GDP is $70Tn, the potential saving on energy is > around 10%” > > “maybe I miss the point?” > > Did you consider the following??? > > > > Energy is to economies as physics is to science… it is FUNDAMENTAL, and > everything is built on top of it. A significant change to a fundamental > will propagate to anything built using that fundamental. > > > > *If* LENR is able to deliver very cheap energy, then the cost of ALL > PRODUCTS AND SERVICES will also go down… manufacturing requires ENERGY, > moving those manufactured products to the end consumer (i.e., > transportation) requires ENERGY (gas/diesel). If competition is allowed to > take its course, the cost of nearly everything will come down. But the > ramifications of this are much more complex, and the reality of how this > would affect different aspects of life are hard to predict… my attitude at > this point is that much disruption will happen in the short term, but long > term the average person will be much better off… we are the most adaptable > species on the planet, and we will adapt; economies will adapt; financial > markets will adapt… > > -Mark > > > > From: alain.coetm...@gmail.com [mailto:alain.coetm...@gmail.com] On Behalf > Of Alain Sepeda > Sent: Wednesday, July 18, 2012 8:02 AM > To: vortex-l@eskimo.com > Subject: Re: [Vo]:Migrant Workers in China Face Competition from Robots > > > > just to guive data > I've made some quick computation > http://www.lenrforum.eu/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=27&p=1139#p1139 > > since energy is $5-7Tn and GDP is $70Tn, the potential saving on energy is > around 10%, > that you can interpret as productivity increase. > The replacement of world energy source is estimated around 15% of GDP, that > can easily be self-financed by the saving. > Energy is not free, but few maintenance, ridiculous matter, and some > investment. > > It will be important shock, but not so huge. at most 10% > > of course you can expect that the technology will become even cheaper, but > even if LENR get to zero, the turbines, cooling and alike will stay as > expensive (and I have under estimated their cost). > Some gain might came from the side-effect of LENR, like fewer pollution, > longer autonomy, sociological consequence of easier access to food, water, > health, heat... maybe is it there the biggest potential of productivity > gain. > > Now I'm less enthusiast, yet it will very good, energy does not seems to be > so important... 10% only. > > maybe I miss the point?
