On 7/18/2012 11:08 AM, Jed Rothwell wrote:
...
I suggest you read my book, chapters 14 and 15 especially. I show why
cold fusion will probably reduce electric power costs by two-thirds
quickly, and why eventually it will reduce all energy costs --
including equipment costs -- by orders of magnitude.
To summarize: when one component in a system falls in price, the other
components also soon become cheaper. Cheap microcomputers spurred the
development of cheap hard disks and printers.
I may be wrong about that, but I consulted with experts and thought
about it carefully. I did not reach that conclusion in week or two.
More like several years after reading lots of books.
- Jed
Jed:
Lacking -at this moment- your book, I plunge ahead anyway...
It seems to me that (unless LENR can be made capable of directly
generating electricity) that electricity generation CAPITAL costs cannot
really decrease much: Per watt, you need the same generator, you need
an engine of matching HP (IC or steam, not much different), and now you
need a boiler, water injector, usually a condenser.
I see a twist in your favor: because the heat is SO cheap, a really
wretched, cheap, cheap, kluge of a turbine could be fine. Who needs
efficiency! Exotic metallurgy, ultra-precision machining, all by the
board. Likewise the condenser -where plenty of water is handy.
Another thing I get, material costs will surely drop, since some large
fraction is due to fuel for mining, transportation, smelting, refining,
forming, etc, etc, etc.
SO, okay, maybe 2/3 drop in $$ per watt. Never by an order of magnitude.
Well, IF direct electricity generation is possible, maybe...
Ol' Bab
