Jed wrote: "2. At the level of energy, the economy and technology are so complex no expert can sort out the inputs and outputs, or the effect of change. You might estimate the impact of an improved washing machine. You might even predict the impact of an effective vaccine for AIDS. But when you get to something as big as cold fusion, the effect is too big to predict."
Yes, as I said on Wednesday in this thread: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/msg67652.html "Energy is to economies as physics is to science. It is FUNDAMENTAL, and everything is built on top of it. A significant change to a fundamental will propagate to anything built using that fundamental. <snip> "But the ramifications of this are much more complex, and the reality of how this would affect different aspects of life are hard to predict..." Continuing the point. So let's take a look at the use of energy in the production of a product: - Start with raw materials; if it isn't mined, it is grown. - Getting the iron ore out of the ground and to the smelter takes a lot of *energy*, - Processing the ore and making sheet steel or steel bars requires *energy*, - Transporting that raw material to my widget manufacturing plant takes *energy*, - Running the widget manufacturing plant is very *energy* intensive; even if there is a high degree of automation, those machines/computers/motors require *energy*, - Transporting my widgets to the distributor or retail outlet requires *energy*, - Heating/cooling all the manufacturing plants and offices requires *energy*, - Getting the consumer to/from the retail store to buy my widgets requires *energy*. To say energy is fundamental isn't really enough--- its ubiquitous; *it's used to make and/or operate everything we touch/use throughout the day*. A drastic reduction in the cost of energy will probably have a much stronger deflationary pressure on products, and less on services, since services primarily use human energy. When you consider all the political and economic power-centers in the world, and the alliances or lack thereof, and the dire financial circumstances all over the planet, trying to make any predictions with that level of uncertainty/complexity is foolish. Anyone who thinks they can provide a reasonable estimate as to how this revolution will unfold is deluded. Those who are aware, like on this collective, of what's transpiring will be in a much better position to respond. in a personal sense. I.e., put in sell orders on stocks which will take a big hit, like oil or power companies and precious metals (if transmutations also get a lot of press). Many will be caught off-guard, but that's life. -Mark
