I've rethough about my simple rough analysis of Energy being 10% of all cost in economy.
in fact situation is much worse, I see it at Home (I try a micro economic reasoning). not only I pay more than 1 thousands euro a year to warm house and water, but to avoid paying 3 thousands, I, and the previous owner, have already invested 6 thousands euro for windows, and probably more to insulate the wall of the bedrooms... my gaz furnace is also very expensive compared to a brutal one. to save few hundred a year... and so on. If I can save the wast of having to invest in those efficient decices, without polluting, not wasting, it will be benefit. it is the price of negawatt power-plant that I refer in another post. LENR is chepaer that most negarwatt; cheaper in cash;cheaper in pollution. and gone also all the enrgy needed to build those negawatt... the productivity gain will be much above the cost of energy, but more about the cost of all energy produced and all expensive "negawatt" produced... in those negawatt ther will be the green negawatt called renewable, except maybe hydoelectric which are usefull (flood control, and irrigation) and whose electricity is nearly as cheap as LENR... so yes the impact will be huge maybe 20%, maybe more... the negative point is that it will block many innovation, led by energy saving, that are good for else, or for small externalities like noise, gadgets heating ... some engineering will be more simple... probably turbines technology will got toward cheap and rough, and no more to efficient... 2012/7/18 Jed Rothwell <[email protected]> > Alain Sepeda <[email protected]> wrote: > > It will be important shock, but not so huge. at most 10% >> >> of course you can expect that the technology will become even cheaper, >> but even if LENR get to zero, the turbines, cooling and alike will stay as >> expensive (and I have under estimated their cost). >> > > I suggest you read my book, chapters 14 and 15 especially. I show why cold > fusion will probably reduce electric power costs by two-thirds quickly, and > why eventually it will reduce all energy costs -- including equipment costs > -- by orders of magnitude. > > To summarize: when one component in a system falls in price, the other > components also soon become cheaper. Cheap microcomputers spurred the > development of cheap hard disks and printers. > > I may be wrong about that, but I consulted with experts and thought about > it carefully. I did not reach that conclusion in week or two. More like > several years after reading lots of books. > > - Jed > >
