This retrograde mailing system is screwing with my posts. The numbers are not
appearing correctly in the Web Interface and would cause people to get
confused. Whenever you see a probability number, it should be a number
"Raised" to the other number.
hence, 108 should be 10 raised to the 8 or 100,000,000
1017 should be 10 raised to the 17 or 100,000,000,000,000,000
1031 should be 10 raised to the 31 or 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
etc.
Jojo
----- Original Message -----
From: Jojo Jaro
To: Vortex-l
Sent: Monday, August 06, 2012 4:18 PM
Subject: [Vo]:The Fallacis of Darwinian Evolution - Genetic Improbability
In my continuing seris of Posts, I will touch on the issue of Genetic
Improbablity. The article below probably best describes this problem of
genetic improbability. The Paper is a well-cited paper and should be worthy of
sciencific acceptance from open minded folks here:
From The Myth of Natural Origins; How Science Points to Divine Creation
Ashby Camp, Ktisis Publishing, Tempe, Arizona, 1994, pp. 53-57, used by
permission.
Even on a theoretical level, it does not seem possible for mutations to
account for the diversity of life on earth, at least not in the time available.
According to Professor Ambrose, the minimum number of mutations necessary to
produce the simplest new structure in an organism is five (Davis, 67-68; Bird,
1:88), but these five mutations must be the proper type and must affect five
genes that are functionally related. Davis, 67-68. In other words, not just any
five mutations will do. The odds against this occurring in a single organism
are astronomical.
Mutations of any kind are believed to occur once in every 100,000 gene
replications (though some estimate they occur far less frequently). Davis, 68;
Wysong, 272. Assuming that the first single-celled organism had 10,000 genes,
the same number as E. coli (Wysong, 113), one mutation would exist for every
ten cells. Since only one mutation per 1,000 is non-harmful (Davis, 66), there
would be only one non-harmful mutation in a population of 10,000 such cells.
The odds that this one non-harmful mutation would affect a particular gene,
however, is 1 in 10,000 (since there are 10,000 genes). Therefore, one would
need a population of 100,000,000 cells before one of them would be expected to
possess a non-harmful mutation of a specific gene.
The odds of a single cell possessing non-harmful mutations of five specific
(functionally related) genes is the product of their separate probabilities.
Morris, 63. In other words, the probability is 1 in 108 X 108 X 108 X 108 X
108, or 1 in 1040. If one hundred trillion (1014) bacteria were produced every
second for five billion years (1017 seconds), the resulting population (1031)
would be only 1/1,000,000,000 of what was needed!
But even this is not the whole story. These are the odds of getting just any
kind of non-harmful mutations of five related genes. In order to create a new
structure, however, the mutated genes must integrate or function in concert
with one another. According to Professor Ambrose, the difficulties of obtaining
non-harmful mutations of five related genes "fade into insignificance when we
recognize that there must be a close integration of functions between the
individual genes of the cluster, which must also be integrated into the
development of the entire organism." Davis, 68.
In addition to this, the structure resulting from the cluster of the five
integrated genes must, in the words of Ambrose, "give some selective advantage,
or else become scattered once more within the population at large, due to
interbreeding." Bird, 1:87. Ambrose concludes that "it seems impossible to
explain [the origin of increased complexity] in terms of random mutations
alone." Bird, 1:87.
When one considers that a structure as "simple" as the wing on a fruit fly
involves 30-40 genes (Bird, 1:88), it is mathematically absurd to think that
random genetic mutations can account for the vast diversity of life on earth.
Even Julian Huxley, a staunch evolutionist who made assumptions very favorable
to the theory, computed the odds against the evolution of a horse to be 1 in
10300,000. Pitman, 68. If only more Christians had that kind of faith!
This probability problem is not the delusion of some radical scientific
fringe. As stated by William Fix:
Whether one looks to mutations or gene flow for the source of the
variations needed to fuel evolution, there is an enormous probability problem
at the core of Darwinist and neo-Darwinist theory, which has been cited by
hundreds of scientists and professionals. Engineers, physicists, astronomers,
and biologists who have looked without prejudice at the notion of such
variations producing ever more complex organisms have come to the same
conclusion: The evolutionists are assuming the impossible. Fix, 196.
Renowned French zoologist Pierre-Paul Grass' has made no secret of his
skepticism:
What gambler would be crazy enough to play roulette with random
evolution? The probability of dust carried by the wind reproducing Dürer's
(Matt, I can't get the 'u' to go small for me there!) "Melancholia" is less
infinitesimal than the probability of copy errors in the DNA molecule leading
to the formation of the eye; besides, these errors had no relationship
whatsoever with the function that the eye would have to perform or was starting
to perform. There is no law against daydreaming, but science must not indulge
in it. Grass', 104.
In 1967 a group of internationally known biologists and mathematicians met to
consider whether random mutations and natural selection could qualify as the
mechanism of evolutionary change. The answer of the mathematicians was "No."
Morris, 64-65; Sunderland, 128-36. Participants at the symposium, all
evolutionists, recognized the need for some type of mechanism to reduce the
odds against evolution. In the words of Dr. Murray Eden of M.I.T.:
What I am claiming is that without some constraint on the notion of
random variation, in either the properties of the organism or the sequence of
the DNA, there is no particular reason to expect that we could have gotten any
kind of viable form other than nonsense. Sunderland, 138.
Summarizing his and Hoyle's analysis of the mechanism of evolution,
Wickramasinghe states:
We found that there's just no way it could happen. If you start with a
simple micro-organism, no matter how it arose on the earth, primordial soup or
otherwise, then if you just have that single organizational, informational unit
and you said that you copied this sequentially time and time again, the
question is does that accumulate enough copying errors, enough mistakes in
copying, and do these accumulations of copying errors lead to the diversity of
living forms that one sees on the earth. That's the general, usual formulation
of the theory of evolution.... We looked at this quite systematically, quite
carefully, in numerical terms. Checking all the numbers, rates of mutation and
so on, we decided that there is no way in which that could even marginally
approach the truth. Varghese, 28.
Thus, several decades have only confirmed the observation of Gertrude
Himmelfarb in her book Darwin and the Darwinian Revolution (1959):
[I]t is now discovered that favorable mutations are not only small but
exceedingly rare, and the fortuitous combination of favorable mutations such as
would be required for the production of even a fruit fly, let alone a man, is
so much rarer still that the odds against it would be expressed by a number
containing as many noughts as there are letters in the average novel, "a number
greater than that of all the electrons and protons in the visible universe" --
an improbability as great as that a monkey provided with a typewriter would by
chance peck out the works of Shakespeare. Fix, 196.
*****************
References:
a.. Bird, W.R., The Origin of Species Revisited (Nashville: Thomas Nelson,
1991; originally published by Philosophical Library in 1987). Bird graduated
summa cum laude from Vanderbilt University and has a J.D. degree from Yale Law
School. He has published articles in numerous law journals and represented the
State of Louisiana in the challenge to its "creation statute." Both volumes of
this work are extensively documented with references to the pertinent
scientific literature.
b.. Davis, Percival and Dean H. Kenyon, Of Pandas and People (Dallas:
Haughton Publishing Co. 1990). Davis has an M.A. degree from Columbia
University and is a life science professor at Hillsborough Community College.
Kenyon has a Ph.D. in biophysics from Stanford and is Professor of Biology at
San Francisco State University. He is the co-author of Biochemical
Predestination published by McGraw-Hill in 1969. The Academic Editor of Of
Pandas and People was Charles B. Thaxton who has a Ph.D. in chemistry from Iowa
State University and is the co-author of The Mystery of Life's Origin published
by the Philosophical Library in 1984.
c.. Fix, William R., The Bone Peddlers (New York: Macmillan PUblishing,
1984). Fix has an M.A. degree in behavioral science from Simon Fraser
University (Canada) and is the author of several books.
d.. Grass', Pierre-P., Evolution of Living Organisms (New York: Academic
Press, 1977). Grass' is France's most distinguished zoologist. Dobzhansky has
described his knowledge of the living world as "encyclopedic."
e.. Morris, Henry M. and Gary E. Parker, What is Creation Science (San
Diego: Creation-Life Publishers, 1982). Morris has a Ph.D. in hydraulic
engineering from the University of Minnesota. Parker has a M.S. and Ed.D. in
biology from Ball State University.
f.. Pitman, Michael, Adam and Evolution (London: Rider & Co., 1984). Pitman
has a B.A. degree in science from Open University (England), a M.A. degree in
classics from Oxford, and teaches biology in Cambridge, England. The
introduction is by Dr. Bernard Stonehouse, a scientist who has held academic
posts at Oxford, Yale, and other prestigious universities.
g.. Sunderland, Luther D., Darwin's Enigma: Fossils and Other Problems, 3d
ed. (Santee, CA: Master Book Publishers, 1984). Sunderland had a B.S. from
Penn. State University and worked as an aerospace engineer with General
Electric specializing in automatic flight control systems (died 1987).
h.. Varghese, Roy Abraham, ed., The Intellectuals Speak Out About God
(Chicago: Regenery Gateway, 1984). Those quoted are Robert Jastrow and Chandra
Wickramasinghe. ...Wickramisinghe is an internationally recognized authority on
interstellar matter and is the head of the department of applied mathematics
and astronomy at University College in Cardiff, Wales.
i.. Wysong, Randy L., The Creation-Evolution Controversy (Midland, MI:
Inquiry Press, 1976). Wysong has a B.S. and D.V.M. from Michigan State
University
