When I wrote that it might take $1 billion to develop a cold fusion machine, I meant things like first generation boilers, generators, automobiles and so on. Not small things such as thermoelectric cell phone batteries. Still, I expect you need on the order of $100 million to design one, have it certified for safety, and to set up a factory.
It seems to me, to commercialize you need a strategy that calls for: Investing the least amount of capital you can Producing an income stream as quickly as possible Lowest risk for you, and for the customer The smallest, cheapest device you can come up with that has market value The biggest premium you can find (that is, a large markup, or a large profit) People such as Rossi often get the last two criteria completely backwards. You can make a lot more money per watt selling AA batteries than you can selling megawatt reactors. You want a niche market that has: Few regulations, or no regulations No competition The biggest premium Where should you look for such a thing? I say look far afield. Very far: Mars. I would begin by contacting NASA to develop a replacement for the plutonium powered thermoelectric batteries they use. You could sell that at a gigantic premium: millions of dollars per kilogram. There are no pesky regulations on Mars. Naturally, you could not actually ship a product that could be used on Mars for a long time. But the research dollar revenue stream might start very soon. There are probably other similar applications for things in the military, such UAVs, and for things like remote telephone repeaters. Once you start making money from these things, you would be developing expertise. You would gain credibility. You would attract capital. In shorty, you would have the tools you need to approach a billion dollar market such as small generators or AA battery replacements. Start with the easiest place to make a huge profit, which is not necessarily the easiest product. Go from there to other markets. Do not begin by competing with conventional natural gas in the 50 MW generator market. That's the worst possible place to begin, in my opinion. Many of the business strategies I have seen proposed in this field seem naive to me. They seem impractical. They seem to be devised by people who have little knowledge of business, or of the history of technology. - Jed
