Mark Gibbs <[email protected]> wrote: How about throwing in some predictions on world resource use, nuclear > power, wind power, robots, the erosion of funding for HF, or the zombie > apocalypse? >
Nothing on zombies! This is not a prediction so much as my reading of the mass media in Japan and the Sunday talk shows on NHK. I predict most Japanese nukes will remain turned off, and some will be permanently dismantled because they are on fault lines. After Fukushima they talked about turning them all off permanently but I think the LDP is friendlier to them. I do not think they will ever construct another one. I personally think it is crazy for them to abruptly abandon all nuclear power. This is adding to CO2 emissions, as Japanese environmentalists should darn well know. They are being irresponsible. Yes, there is a threat of another accident, but CO2 and smoke pollution is also a threat. Wind energy in the U.S. will increase from 3% to 5% (rounded off). That's total energy, not power. Actual, not nameplate. Power cannot exceed 20% in any location with present day distribution as far as I know. As Mr. Obama pointed out last night, more than half of all new electric power capacity installed in 2012 was wind. I was astounded to read that new PV installations will likely exceed wind power in 2013. I assume that is nameplate. I think PV is also roughly 30% of nameplate, based on daylight hours of sunlight, but it is a whole lot more useful in the U.S. Southeast and in Japan because it peaks just when you most need the electricity, for air conditioning. You see many large solar rooftop installations on houses in Hiroshima and the rest of southern Japan. But Japan has not done anywhere near as much PV and other solar energy as they might have. Europe is far ahead of them. Which is stupid because southern Japan has tremendous amounts of sunlight. Passive solar water heaters are ubiquitous and quite effective. I used to go jogging at sunrise in Yamaguchi. (3 km down the mountain, swim in the Inland Sea, 2 km back up -- hey, I can be athletic!) An hour after sunrise, the water from a solar heater is too hot for a shower. You have to mix it with cold water. Cumulative solar installation is shown here, but I kind of doubt these numbers because the installations wear out: http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/02/100-gw-of-solar-pv-now-installed-in-the-world-today With the magic of Google maps you can see right were I go swimming at 6 am, before heading uphill: https://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ll=33.953969,132.248418&spn=0.030614,0.022702&t=m&z=16&layer=c&cbll=33.954028,132.24832&panoid=1NEhEJTB6ik4dZyCQeaApA&cbp=12,21.26,,1,-0.02 I do mean uphill: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/82676689 - Jed
