It is not sustainable. All is based on taxes and subsidies, and on false price not taking the reality of variable demand across the day. backup thermal energy is not paid at real price.
The LENR CHP will reduce the consumption and bill of home, bill which already hard to accept in germany (germany don't make enterprise pay the subsidies, not to kill it's industry). The result is that to pay the taxes and the grid, the prices per kWh will increase, until people disconnect from the grid, or burn their politicians. grid is closed and energy is local, with higher that optimal installed power (no smart-grid). some push the idea that committed money in Germany alone is 2 trillion euro, for >20years to go, in that investment and subsidies policy. My prediction is multiple branch. One most probable scenario, because of renewable taxes, or of simply the grid cost, is the one I tell here. Grid collapse despite public/incumbent lobbies try to save it. the other is that EU make a regulation to forbid LENR, but when big energy master LENR, they will obtain the monopoly to exploit LENR, keep the price, keep the grid, and waste most of LENR added value in useless safety measures. renewable lobbies will keep their economic rent. It assumes that population are not aware of being screwed, and this is improbable if outside of EU things get better, and if EU is not wealthy. I think that German policy is paid by its great industrial sucess over rest of EU. It cannot scale at EU scale. the least probable scenario, the best one, is that a coopetitive development agency/consortium make all LENR actors work together to go faster than the incumbent operator and renewable lobbies, to install LENR in enough enterprise and home, so that it cannot be forbidden without a revolution. Grid operators, big energy,and taxes collapse, and government euthanize them all, keeping a local smart grid as only sequel of old system. some work on that idea in EU. in US the scenario will probably be the wildest of those, everybody will have a home generator, or a building generator. same in australia and other libertarian influenced culture. Of course in Asia and Africa, things will go much better. probably optimal in China, and not bad elsewhere. 2013/2/24 Jouni Valkonen <[email protected]> > In Germany there will be ca 100 GW solar installed by 2020. This is > inevitable, because there just happened the crossover that commercial grid > electricity is now more expensive for the companies than producing own > rooftop solar electricity. Grid electricity costs for the companies about > 110–170 euros per MWh where as rooftop solar electricity costs just 120–140 > euros per MWh. The system price of rooftop solar has already fallen to > €1520 per kW in January 2013. > > And as the crossover has now happened, it takes just few years to ramp up > the global production of solar cells. This will induce further price cuts. > > *Macquarie says rooftop solar juggernaut is unstoppable* > > http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/macquarie-says-rooftop-solar-juggernaut-is-unstoppable-40618 > > For households, grid electricity is already so expensive in Germany that > the payback time for roof-top solar panels is just 10 years. By 2020 > payback time is reduced to five years according to UBS prediction. Also > battery technology is getting cheaper very rapidly. Roof-top solar systems > with batteries are predicted to be cheaper than solar panels alone by 2015. > > Wind power is also getting cheaper due to advanced blade materials such as > carbon fibers. As carbon fibers are lighter than current blade material of > choice fiberglass, this allows higher output of wind turbine. Graphene may > be also coming rapidly. And if graphne is only half as good as promised it > allows drastic cost reduction of wind turbines. > > Third piece in the energy puzzle is that half of the cars manufactured in > 2020 are electric or plug in hybrids. Probably fully electric mostly. This > is because the price of lithium batteries is halved by the 2020. As EVs are > ideal companions for renewable solar and wind electricity, there is just no > room in the grid for unadjustable new nuclear power and adjustable coal and > natural gas must be subsidized so that they provide electricity when there > is not enough wind and sun is not shining. > > There are deep economic reasons behind why Germany is getting rid of > nuclear power. It is not just anti-nuclear idealism. > > —Jouni > > > On Feb 13, 2013, at 1:09 PM, Mark Gibbs <[email protected]> wrote: > > How about throwing in some predictions on world resource use, nuclear > power, wind power, robots, the erosion of funding for HF, or the zombie > apocalypse? > > >
