In Germany there will be ca 100 GW solar installed by 2020. This is inevitable, because there just happened the crossover that commercial grid electricity is now more expensive for the companies than producing own rooftop solar electricity. Grid electricity costs for the companies about 110–170 euros per MWh where as rooftop solar electricity costs just 120–140 euros per MWh. The system price of rooftop solar has already fallen to €1520 per kW in January 2013.
And as the crossover has now happened, it takes just few years to ramp up the global production of solar cells. This will induce further price cuts. Macquarie says rooftop solar juggernaut is unstoppable http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/macquarie-says-rooftop-solar-juggernaut-is-unstoppable-40618 For households, grid electricity is already so expensive in Germany that the payback time for roof-top solar panels is just 10 years. By 2020 payback time is reduced to five years according to UBS prediction. Also battery technology is getting cheaper very rapidly. Roof-top solar systems with batteries are predicted to be cheaper than solar panels alone by 2015. Wind power is also getting cheaper due to advanced blade materials such as carbon fibers. As carbon fibers are lighter than current blade material of choice fiberglass, this allows higher output of wind turbine. Graphene may be also coming rapidly. And if graphne is only half as good as promised it allows drastic cost reduction of wind turbines. Third piece in the energy puzzle is that half of the cars manufactured in 2020 are electric or plug in hybrids. Probably fully electric mostly. This is because the price of lithium batteries is halved by the 2020. As EVs are ideal companions for renewable solar and wind electricity, there is just no room in the grid for unadjustable new nuclear power and adjustable coal and natural gas must be subsidized so that they provide electricity when there is not enough wind and sun is not shining. There are deep economic reasons behind why Germany is getting rid of nuclear power. It is not just anti-nuclear idealism. —Jouni On Feb 13, 2013, at 1:09 PM, Mark Gibbs <[email protected]> wrote: > How about throwing in some predictions on world resource use, nuclear power, > wind power, robots, the erosion of funding for HF, or the zombie apocalypse? > >
