Eric, I can see where you would think that, but I think they are saying that +.25W is at the 95% CI.
They wrote: "Both the EU Cells and the US Cells were switched on and BOTH indicated excess energy as the cells came to equilibrium at higher temperatures than during the calibration tests. The EU cell with the active wire was indicating up to 2.5W of excess power over the 30.4W input power (~6% excess). *That is well above the 95% confidence limits for that cell (~0.25W). * The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous." (emphasis mine) So, 2.5W would be ~19 sigma if indeed the 95% confidence limit is ~.25W. They don't say that the +2.5W is at the 95%CI, they say it is *well above *the 95% CI of ~.25W. Am I missing something? It would follow for the US cell that 1.4W would be ~5-6 sigma. Anyway, I think we can safely call this a statistically significant difference by any reasonable standard. The next step would be to generate and test hypotheses about how systematic error could produce the results. I think they've started doing some of that. The challenge for them will be to not get overly excited and keep plugging away to rule out or confirm alternative explanations. Jack On Thu, Jun 27, 2013 at 9:29 AM, Eric Walker <eric.wal...@gmail.com> wrote: > On Thu, Jun 27, 2013 at 3:44 AM, Jack Cole <jcol...@gmail.com> wrote: > > They don't present the actual SD here: >> http://www.quantumheat.org/index.php/en/follow/follow-2/285-us-eu-cell-calibration-results >> . >> >> We can get it by working backwards. (.25/1.96=.13) >> > > I was working backwards from 2.5 W at 95 percent confidence, working on > the assumption that a 95 percent interval implied ~2 standard deviations > [1]. It's been a while since I took statistics, so I could be wrong in my > thinking. But I doubt their result is 19 sigma. That would be pretty > much irrefutable unless there were some kind of systematic error. > > Eric > > [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9395%E2%80%9399.7_rule > >
