One point where you probably agree is that many blackswan were in fact ignored voluntarily, like cold fusion is.
>From the point of view of mainstream many things were unpredictable, yet some like Roubini predicted them in detail.* I din not read the blackswan, but antifragile. and this author is sometime very violent, exagerating, but it mirror the consensus around which is to be broken... Cold fusion shows that we can have evidence in front of our nose, in the expected scientific format that we requires fiercely, but we ignore them. be sure all the people will consider cold fusion as a black swan event, while it is predictable in principle since 1990, and more or less planned since 2010. 2014-06-03 21:58 GMT+02:00 Jed Rothwell <jedrothw...@gmail.com>: > Alain Sepeda <alain.sep...@gmail.com> wrote: > > One basic of Taleb philosophy is that knowing what will be good or bad, >> innovation or crackpots, is often not possible. >> > > I was not impressed by Taleb's book "The Black Swan." I disagreed with > most of the examples of things that he claimed were not anticipated by > experts. I think these things were anticipated. In some cases, I myself > anticipated them. > > - Jed > >
