I have a spreadsheet that I've developed that gives me 5 years of projected monthly costs/revenue/running costs/running revenue/cost per subscriber/debt paydown. It summarizes to 5-year p&l, 5-year debt, 5-year business value (1xannual), 5-year resale value (business value-debt).

It does not take into account everything...just:

- Existing subs (starting point)
- average sub monthly fee
- Projected subs/month
- any admin cost per sub that you want to put in
- CPE cost (estimate high)
- installation fee per new sub
- referral/commission/discount per new sub
- cost to sub out installation of new sub
- bandwidth per mb
- subs per mb (auto-calculates in the monthly costs as # of subs grow)
- cost of tech support person
- subs per tech support person (again, auto-calculates)
- as an option, monthly amount per sub to outsource tech support
- monthly overhead costs (advertising, rent, insurance, etc)
- annual overhead costs
- special project income (other income and expenses for the project(s))

That might be all. Hit me off-list and I'll let you have it, without my info, of course.

I've gotten over the idea that cash flow is everything. Cash flow is alot, but not everything. It took me quite awhile to realize that I should put in the info about business value. This thing lets me play with numbers that affect the profit and loss AS WELL AS the VALUE of my business, which is important to look at over time.

Mark Nash
Network Engineer
UnwiredOnline.Net
350 Holly Street
Junction City, OR 97448
http://www.uwol.net
541-998-5555
541-998-5599 fax
----- Original Message ----- From: "Mark Koskenmaki" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "WISPA General List" <[email protected]>
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 9:34 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Interesting.   My highest priced service level is only $65.

I have about 80/20 percent mix $38 / $25 per mo customers. I have only 2
that exceed $40 / mo.   This is what my  business model was built on.

I expect that at 500 customers, I will have a really decent paycheck and
pretty solid stream of reinvestment at the same time.


North East Oregon Fastnet, LLC 509-593-4061
personal correspondence to:  mark at neofast dot net
sales inquiries to:  purchasing at neofast dot net
Fast Internet, NO WIRES!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
----- Original Message ----- From: "Brad Belton" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "'WISPA General List'" <[email protected]>
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 4:56 PM
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


No, not really.  Our average RMC is similar to CBeyond, but the big
difference is how much we keep of that RMC as it compares to CBeyond.
CBeyond is still pumping dollars into their direct competitor (MaBell) and
operators like us that own their own network do not.

I know of ISPs like us all over the country that have similar RMC rates
and
have been very successful.  We don't even consider deploying a radio for
less than $200.00 RMC and that will typically require a setup fee that
covers 90% of our upfront costs.  Majority of the time we require a T1
commitment at $329.95 RMC before deploying.

Like I've always said Patrick, the fewer radios we have in the air the
better!  lol

This is not to knock the sub $100 RMC market.  Clearly that is a model
that
has also been a proven winner when applied properly. We work closely with
a
dozen or more wISPs all of which have proven business models and all are
successful.

Best,


Brad




-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:15 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

I stand corrected, fair enough Matt, but wow. That's pretty rich monthly
rates and an especially rich ARPU.

Patrick

-----Original Message-----
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:56 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while
their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is
$895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers
delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There are
operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more of
service for less than $495 per month.

I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the
scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.

-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

>Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to have >a
>$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes for
an
>excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing fiber
and
>big TDM pipes as a primary focus.
>
>Patrick Leary
>AVP Marketing
>Alvarion, Inc.
>o: 650.314.2628
>c: 760.580.0080
>Vonage: 650.641.1243
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:52 PM
>To: WISPA General List
>Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!
>
>Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the quality
>of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly whose ARPU
>is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M
>per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for very little
>revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in
>recent time went public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but
>their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be
>worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an
>ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in
>now.
>
>A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of
>customers.
>
>-Matt
>
>Charles Wu wrote:
>
>
>
>>>30% of what number Charles?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
>>Of these, about 40% responded
>>
>>Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
>>respondents, so I cannot list names
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>>How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of >>>about
20
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>with that high a number.
>>
>>A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
>>Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more that
Tim
>>missed)
>>
>>Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively
>>
>>
>participate
>
>
>>in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
>>customers / running their businesses =)
>>
>>Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in Northern >>AZ
>>mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/
1,000+
>>CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)
>>
>>Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I had at
>>least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
>>purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of these
guys
>>are still operating and in business
>>
>>If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at the
>>numbers
>>
>>If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying CPE /
>>installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 install
/
>>working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), you'd
>>
>>
>have
>
>
>>1,200 customers
>>
>>Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
>>Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 20-pack
>>
>>-Charles
>>
>>P.S. -- now another interesting statistics is the "top-end" of the
>>license-exempt operator market -- although a lot of people nowadays >>have
>>over 1,000 CPE installed, ALMOST NONE have been able to successfully
scale
>>beyond the 10,000 CPE level -- still trying to figure that one out...
>>
>>
>>-------------------------------------------
>>CWLab
>>Technology Architects
>>http://www.cwlab.com
>>
>>
>>
>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
>>Behalf Of Patrick Leary
>>Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:35 PM
>>To: 'WISPA General List'
>>Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!
>>
>>
>>Patrick
>>
>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>>Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM
>>To: 'WISPA General List'
>>Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!
>>
>>Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last
WiNOG
>>"claimed" on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for
more
>>than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field
>>
>>Less than 10% of them claimed to be "pure-play" license-exempt fixed
>>wireless providers
>>
>>This is why we call them Wi- "NOGs" instead of "ISPs" nowadays
>>
>>Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the "enemy")
>>
>>
>have
>
>
>>gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...
>>
>>-Charles
>>
>>P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola
Canopy
>>sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone
>>
>>-------------------------------------------
>>CWLab
>>Technology Architects
>>http://www.cwlab.com
>>
>>
>>
>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
>>Behalf Of Jack Unger
>>Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:46 PM
>>To: WISPA General List
>>Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!
>>
>>
>>
>>Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use
>>wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who
>>have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their
>>home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the "final
>>50-ft" connection wirelessly.
>>
>>There's so much sloppy and innacurate "journalism" these days that I
>>need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.
>>
>>If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each
>>WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this
>>passes the "sniff" test.
>>                          jack
>>
>>
>>John Scrivner wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>>Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is
>>>much
>>>bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>broadband
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>>connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless. That
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>means you
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>>guys! Woo Hoo!
>>>Scriv
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>

--
WISPA Wireless List: [email protected]

Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless

Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/






****************************************************************************
********
This footnote confirms that this email message has been scanned by
PineApp Mail-SeCure for the presence of malicious code, vandals & computer
viruses.

****************************************************************************
********









****************************************************************************
********
This footnote confirms that this email message has been scanned by
PineApp Mail-SeCure for the presence of malicious code, vandals & computer
viruses.

****************************************************************************
********


--
WISPA Wireless List: [email protected]

Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless

Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/

--
WISPA Wireless List: [email protected]

Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless

Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/

--
WISPA Wireless List: [email protected]

Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless

Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/




--
WISPA Wireless List: [email protected]

Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless

Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/

Reply via email to