The average person watches 4 hours of TV per day. If we are streaming
at 1.5mbit which is somewhere between SDTV and HDTV it is 660MB/hr.
This works out to 79.2GB/month per person. On average I would be that
there are at least 2 separate TV views per household (kids vs parents
for example). This would get us to 158.4GB/mn leaving less than 100GB
for all other traffic.
If we run the same for HD which is roughly 2.5mbit or 1.125GB/hr we get
135GB/mn per person for HDTV.
While 250GB is more than enough by current usage standards if all
viewing moves to IP it is not going to take long 250GB to be a pretty
tight fit for total monthly bandwidth.
I pay by the gallon for water, by the kw/hr for electricity, and capped
with overage on cell service.
Sam Tetherow
Sandhills Wireless
Travis Johnson wrote:
> Honestly, I don't ever see the model changing to metered billing.
> Telephone service isn't that way. Water service (in my area at least)
> isn't that way. And yes, some have started, but with 250GB monthly
> caps, it's not really even a cap.
>
> Travis
> Microserv
>
> Sam Tetherow wrote:
>> I couldn't imagine how the logistics of this would work. What makes
>> sense is if your customer uses more bandwidth, then they pay for it.
>> Everything else is just an inefficient way to do the same.
>>
>> Lets say you are going to charge $150/Mb/month for 95% usage (just
>> picked a number). If the customer pays the bill for their usage 100%
>> comes to you. Now lets say that we have come up with some efficient
>> scheme to accurately bill the various content providers for their
>> 'usage'. If we need $150/Mb/month and bill at that rate to say Netflix,
>> do you think that Netflix is going to have $0 overhead on accounts
>> payable for that bill? Do you think they are going to take a loss on
>> that expense? So it is going to cost the end customer $150/Mb/month+$x.
>>
>> This cost will be averaged out to each customer based on total usage.
>> As the service becomes more popular then the price is going to go up.
>> Wait, doesn't this sound familiar? The problem with selling a commodity
>> is that supply and demand laws do apply. The more the demand the less
>> the supply. We don't get economy of scale savings in last mile on
>> wireless gear. We have a very finite amount of bandwidth we can
>> effectively deliver from an AP/tower.
>>
>> Marlon is the one ahead of the curve on this one (and all the others
>> that have been billing based on usage already). This is most likely
>> where we are going to end up. I don't necessarily think it will be down
>> to $x/GB transfer it will at least be tiered service similar to cell
>> phone plans today.
>>
>> Where WISPs run into the issue is in the short term. We have to survive
>> the market until the billing model changes. Eventually Cable and Telco
>> (and even Fiber at some point) is going to have to switch from unlimited
>> to some form of metered (Comcast and Time Warner are already testing
>> this model). They just have the advantage of having better last mile
>> bandwidth than we do and they generally get better upstream pricing.
>>
>> Sam Tetherow
>> Sandhills Wireless
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Scottie Arnett wrote:
>>
>>> I read about a model somewhere that might work. The content providers paid
>>> the ISP a percentage for delivery of the content. Now I might could live
>>> with that if the economics worked out.
>>>
>>> Scottie
>>>
>>> ---------- Original Message ----------------------------------
>>> From: "John Scrivner" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>>> Reply-To: WISPA General List <wireless@wispa.org>
>>> Date: Mon, 24 Nov 2008 10:11:04 -0600
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>> I think we will eventually see people just leave constant streams open day
>>>> and night. How many of you leave your TV on much of the time whether you
>>>> are
>>>> watching it or not? This throws off the over-subscription model which
>>>> relates to how many people are using the service at one time. When we start
>>>> seeing all channels available at all times via Internet with some common
>>>> interface (Netflix, Tivo, Windows Media Player, Real Player, Quicktime,
>>>> etc.) then we will have this problem to contend with as well.
>>>>
>>>> I hope content providers start making all of their content interactive such
>>>> that viewers have to click something (like ads) from time to time to
>>>> maintain the free TV service. This would help them to sell their ads at a
>>>> premium and would provide an automatic "off" button for the stream when
>>>> people walk away from the "TV" and do not click something once in a while
>>>> to
>>>> prove they are watching the content and commercials.
>>>> Scriv
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Nov 24, 2008 at 8:46 AM, Chuck McCown - 3 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> I think the canopy 450 will do something like 30 down and 10 up. So that
>>>>> could give you 20 simultaneously which statistically could work if you had
>>>>> 50-100 on an AP.
>>>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>>>> From: Travis Johnson
>>>>> To: WISPA General List
>>>>> Sent: Monday, November 24, 2008 7:30 AM
>>>>> Subject: Re: [WISPA] NetFlix Streaming Bandwidth Information
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> You have hit the problem directly on the head. You think a simple Canopy
>>>>> AP is going to solve the problem? Let's say you are allocating 10Mbps
>>>>> downlink on this AP... that would mean 5 customers per AP (@ 2Mbps each).
>>>>> Nobody in this market can survive on those ratios.
>>>>>
>>>>> This service needs capped and people that want it can pay for "video
>>>>> streaming" which is $100/month extra... that would be my vote.
>>>>>
>>>>> Travis
>>>>> Microserv
>>>>>
>>>>> Drew Lentz wrote:
>>>>> In areas like yours, though, some would argue that is the perfect place
>>>>> for
>>>>> some type of licensed LTE/WiMAX type of service. Even with a Canopy type
>>>>> service it would beat down the doors of the telco offering only 3Mbps of
>>>>> service. As more and more devices have bandwidth requirements, the service
>>>>> providers will fall into line, I believe.
>>>>>
>>>>> Everyone has always pushed for more bandwidth, but it as always come from
>>>>> the customers as opposed to the devices. It seems like now, the device
>>>>> requirements will leave the customer with no choice and force them into a
>>>>> decision of higher consumption.
>>>>>
>>>>> As far as furthering the digital divide, I don't think it will hurt it all
>>>>> that bad. On the contrary what would be nice to see is the communications
>>>>> mediums becoming less expensive because of the amount of services
>>>>> required.
>>>>> Just like the price of bandwidth has changed over the years, I think it
>>>>> will
>>>>> continue to drop. I would love to see some research data on the cost per
>>>>> MB
>>>>> over the last 10 years and see what the trend is like.
>>>>>
>>>>> That combined with less expensive and functional equipment (UBNT's Bullet,
>>>>> the introduction of Mikrotik years ago, for examples) gives operators the
>>>>> ability to put more bandwidth than before in users hands at a fraction of
>>>>> the cost.
>>>>>
>>>>> I think more than anything it will come down to a backhaul battle. Fiber
>>>>> to
>>>>> the node, fiber to the AP, high capacity microwave links (Bridgewave,
>>>>> Dragonwave, Ceragon, etc) These are all going to be critically important
>>>>> to
>>>>> aggregate and transport these huge amounts of data.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On 11/24/08 1:06 AM, "Scottie Arnett" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> It will further the digital divide. Rural remote locations will be again
>>>>> left
>>>>> in the boon docks. Where I live, 3 meg DSL is the fastest available
>>>>> connection
>>>>> at $75/mth. Cheapest T1 here is over $600/mth, and fiber? forget it, can't
>>>>> get
>>>>> it unless you want to build about 4 towers just to backhaul, or pay
>>>>> $1200/mth
>>>>> for each cell tower to put them on.
>>>>>
>>>>> Why should the small ISP's foot the bill for Netflix and these companies
>>>>> that
>>>>> are making million's of dollars more than we are?
>>>>>
>>>>> Scottie
>>>>>
>>>>> ---------- Original Message ----------------------------------
>>>>> From: Drew Lentz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>>>>> Reply-To: WISPA General List <wireless@wispa.org>
>>>>> Date: Mon, 24 Nov 2008 00:41:41 -0600
>>>>>
>>>>> I'm all for open systems. Limiting the amount of bandwidth at any level
>>>>> is,
>>>>> to me, a terrible thing to do. I understand that it doesn't necessarily
>>>>> fit
>>>>> the model as it applies to today's business for many ISPs, but, maybe its
>>>>> time to change the model.
>>>>>
>>>>> This is where the separation of providers starts to take shape. The
>>>>> networks
>>>>> that can handle these loads and supply the end-user are going to win the
>>>>> customers. I honestly think the demand of large scale bandwidth is going
>>>>> to
>>>>> be fed to the end-user by the consumer electronics market. Look at CES
>>>>> last
>>>>> year. Look how many devices demand connectivity at certain levels. If your
>>>>> current service provider can't get you what you need, there will always be
>>>>> someone else who can.
>>>>>
>>>>> There is some great info here from a recent conference:
>>>>> http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/citi/events/summit2008
>>>>>
>>>>> Take a look at the slides. I like the reference to the slide where it
>>>>> breaks
>>>>> down how much bandwidth utilization there is expected to be per household:
>>>>> 35+ Mbps (and those are numbers from 2006!)
>>>>> 4 VoIP lines @ 100Kbps
>>>>> 2 SDTVs @ 2Mbps
>>>>> 2 HDTVs @ 9 Mbps
>>>>> 1 Gaming device @ 1Mbps
>>>>> 1 High Spedd Internet @ 10Mbps
>>>>>
>>>>> Scary how quickly it adds up :)
>>>>>
>>>>> My favorite quote:
>>>>> ³By the year 2010 bandwidth for 20 homes will generate more traffic than
>>>>> entire Internet in 1995²
>>>>>
>>>>> -d
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On 11/24/08 12:24 AM, "Butch Evans" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> On Sun, 23 Nov 2008, Travis Johnson wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> It will be interesting to see how this plays out... the amount of
>>>>> bandwidth required to sustain this type of service is not cost
>>>>> effective. My upstream costs alone are over $50/Mbps. So if someone
>>>>> wants to run a constant 2Mbps stream, my raw cost is $100 per month
>>>>> (not including backhaul, support, AP costs, etc.).
>>>>>
>>>>> Wait until people realize that this type of service isn't going to
>>>>> be "free" as they think now.... when they get a $150/month internet
>>>>> bill, the $40 for DishTV will look pretty good. ;)
>>>>> Even the cable companies are feeling the burn here:
>>>>> http://tinyurl.com/3oufk8
>>>>>
>>>>> Or a better story:
>>>>> http://news.cnet.com/2100-1034_3-5079624.html
>>>>>
>>>>> I am glad to see these types of reports coming out. The cable ops
>>>>> and telcos have been rapidly trying to commoditize Internet access
>>>>> services and now they are realizing how stupid that was. In my
>>>>> opinion, high profile companies that are setting these limits are
>>>>> going to help the smaller guys (that's us) "get away" with what, in
>>>>> many cases, we were already doing. BW caps are something that will
>>>>> HAVE to happen in one form or another.
>>>>>
>>>>> <RANT>
>>>>> Where are all the net neutrality people now? Why aren't you all
>>>>> arguing that something like this is not relevant? Isn't this
>>>>> something that you have all asked for? I mean, if I sell someone a
>>>>> 2 meg connection, shouldn't they (and everyone else on the system)
>>>>> be able to run at 2 meg for the whole month? What difference does
>>>>> it make if I am buying a wireless connection, DSL or cable
>>>>> connection? In a net neutral environment, should it matter that I
>>>>> am streaming this type of content?
>>>>> </RANT>
>>>>>
>>>>> I feel better. ;-)
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>> ---
>>>>> WISPA Wants You! Join today!
>>>>> http://signup.wispa.org/
>>>>>
>>>>> -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>> ---
>>>>>
>>>>> WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org
>>>>>
>>>>> Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
>>>>> http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless
>>>>>
>>>>> Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/
>>>>> ---
>>>>> [This E-mail scanned for viruses by Declude Virus]
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Wireless High Speed Broadband service from Info-Ed, Inc. as low as
>>>>> $30.00/mth.
>>>>> Check out www.info-ed.com/wireless.html for information.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>> --
>>>>> WISPA Wants You! Join today!
>>>>> http://signup.wispa.org/
>>>>>
>>>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>> --
>>>>>
>>>>> WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org
>>>>>
>>>>> Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
>>>>> http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless
>>>>>
>>>>> Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>> WISPA Wants You! Join today!
>>>>> http://signup.wispa.org/
>>>>>
>>>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>
>>>>> WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org
>>>>>
>>>>> Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
>>>>> http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless
>>>>>
>>>>> Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>> WISPA Wants You! Join today!
>>>>> http://signup.wispa.org/
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>
>>>>> WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org
>>>>>
>>>>> Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
>>>>> http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless
>>>>>
>>>>> Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>> WISPA Wants You! Join today!
>>>>> http://signup.wispa.org/
>>>>>
>>>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>
>>>>> WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org
>>>>>
>>>>> Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
>>>>> http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless
>>>>>
>>>>> Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>> WISPA Wants You! Join today!
>>>> http://signup.wispa.org/
>>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>
>>>> WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org
>>>>
>>>> Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
>>>> http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless
>>>>
>>>> Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/
>>>> ---
>>>> [This E-mail scanned for viruses by Declude Virus]
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>> Wireless High Speed Broadband service from Info-Ed, Inc. as low as
>>> $30.00/mth.
>>> Check out www.info-ed.com/wireless.html for information.
>>>
>>>
>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>> WISPA Wants You! Join today!
>>> http://signup.wispa.org/
>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>
>>> WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org
>>>
>>> Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
>>> http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless
>>>
>>> Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> WISPA Wants You! Join today!
>> http://signup.wispa.org/
>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>> WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org
>>
>> Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
>> http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless
>>
>> Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/
>>
>>
>>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> WISPA Wants You! Join today!
> http://signup.wispa.org/
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org
>
> Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
> http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless
>
> Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WISPA Wants You! Join today!
http://signup.wispa.org/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org
Subscribe/Unsubscribe:
http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless
Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/
