Very nice post. You are wrong. Very well thought out about what is 'wifi' today. By the time 2017 (or even closer dates) get here the network will not be called 'wifi' and it wont be. I think what the cellco's are looking for, and might find, is a wireless protocol that lets the have even smaller cells (like wifi) but gives this the stability of 'cellular' as it exists now. Think of it as a hybrid. Cellcos would love to increase capacity if the AP's did not cost millions to toss in. Hell $10,000 AP's and they would deploy them every place, including out by farmer Johns barn and Maid Marians Dairy. This is not about WiFi as it exists but about what it will become. Ubnt has shown that Atheros chips can do interesting things when the right brain is put to work on it. Imagine Ubnt reworked by people with a budget 100x theirs is, with decades more experience then them. Toss those devices onto a full fiber back-haul (most NFL cities have decent fiber rings) and most small towns are so small its trivial to fiber them if they do not already have at least a passing fiber. The people out in BFE will have more classic (LTE) cellular available to them and it will 'be enough'. Im not scared of the cell go killing my wisp business any time soon. I am scared I will not be able to deploy fiber myself. Once the cellco has a good fiber ring in some city, why not add wire-line services to it, or lease it to someone else to do it with.
On Fri, Feb 10, 2012 at 11:08 AM, Tom DeReggi <wirelessn...@rapiddsl.net> wrote: > I'm not saying I disagree. John's prediction may very well be the outcome. > I'm just saying, I heard the same arguement in 2005 about 2010 predictions, > and we aren't dead yet. > I've never questioned the service provider's interest in going after that > market. I just question the consumer's interest in accepting it. Right now > Mobile wifi is fun and cool, because it is "new", just like any other Fad. > Last year it was mobile Facebook or twitter. This year its mobile "scrabble" > (with Internet opponents), something for parent to do while waiting for > junior's guitar lesson to be over. But evenually, the "fun" will wear its > welcome thin, because it wont be fun anymore. People dont like AD-HTTP-SPAM. > People want privacy. People dont want to be found. > > My prediction for 2017 is that 90% of all Americans will have thrown their > Android in the nearest lake atleast once, yelling victoriously , "I have had > enough, I am done with the mobile Wifi, I want my life back, I am Free!". > And then they will probably go back and buy another one, because they > realize they should have a phone in case of Emergency or if their car breaks > down, becaue they feel helpless and empty without the ability to make an > outbound call from anywhere when ever they want. Or miss the security that > their kid can call them any time. There is a real need for that type of > communication. But the "mobile wifi"? > > In 2017, Wifi will be Passe. People will say, why am I doing this, Does this > realy help me? Do I really need to check my home fridgerator's temporature > remotely? Some people will look down on other people that use their mobile > Wifi in public, as if they are a rude persons that ignores those around them > just to stare at a small screen, or someone that has lost their ability to > socialize in a real way with real people around them. To much of a good > thing becomes a bad thing. Wifi will officilay be listed as a "disease", and > a new branch will be opened at Betty Ford Clinic, for Wifi addicts. > Our children, the new generation which would have been raised on wifi by > then, will be tough to wean off Wifi back to society. Sorta like daress > syndrum (not sure spelling), people will walk around having these > uncontrollable urges and involuntary twitches every few minutes, where their > neck will slap to the side, as if they were checking their invisible Android > for the next Email alert. Cases of sleeping pill overdose would have > skyrocketed, for all those People that never got an ounch of sleep at night > because their cell phone beeps every 2 miuntes through out the night, and > their obsession forces them to actually check the alerts instead of turn off > their phone. Their treatment will be to get rid of the Android. AA will > expand to offer Wifi addict groups, which will be a successful program > because of the LIVE human social aspect of the group, something the > attendees secretly longed for as a Wifi android. Unemployment will be the > highest ever, and the number one cause for firing will be that the employee > couldn't focus on work or wasn't productive, because they were always on > their personal mobile wifi phone, instead of working.. > Then Wifi Providers will start to think, why are we doing this? How can we > make any money if all our customers are in rehab and talk groups and out of > money, instead of in the stores shopping? > > The death toll from people getting hit crossing the street will skyrocket, > and the mobile Wifi will be the target cause. Insurance companies will > launch massive lobbying campains for federal action. Not only will it it be > illegal to drive a car with an android in hand as it is today, but by > federal law, it will also be made illegal to "walk" or "be in movement" > within 10ft of a street, while holding an android. State's will love it. > The ticketing revenue will far exceed the revenue of traffic street cameras. > The most ironic part is, they APs used to serve the public wifi will be the > same APs that internet-enable the camera's snapping photos of the Walking > mobile violators. (It will be endorsed entrapment.) AD- revenue will no > longer be needed to fund Free-Wifi, and Google will not be happy with that. > All the pedestrian tickets will easilly pay for the wifi network management, > and the governor will not hesitate to defend his action argueing that the > additional funds it raised helped improve the Schools education system. > > Then someone will reminance about the day when it actually felt free to > leave home, and take a stroll in the park without disruption, where they > could actually feel relaxed enough to want to listen to the birds. And then > they'll go dry their car fast, or go skiiing, free from wifi. And they'll > realize that every day could be like that again. And they'll start a new > "movement" for improveing quality of life, that doens't include wifi. And > then the marketers will recognize that it really is more effective to have a > big poster in the window, maybe with a pretty girl on it, saying "come on > in, we have a sale", or have some cool merchandise samples in the window > like the old days. And realizing with the consumer looking at small Android > phone all day, they miss all the "effective" full size advertising. Retail > companies start to go out of business, because consumers now have the > convenience to check Amazon.com's price, before buying from a retail. People > become freeloader to view material in stores in person, but often will place > the Amazon order from their android while still standing in the retail > store. of all the nerve! So Retailers get outraged, and protest Wifi in > public places, because of the harm it is doing. Because of NetNEutrality > stores wont have the right to influence what content is delivered and > allowed on the Wifi network, so the only solution is to get rid of the wifi. > If APs are not removed or reduced significantly voluntarilly, there will be > a riot where the people go wild and start ripping down all the APs in > sight. MAybe one of those Pedestrian tickets will set off some lunatic who > will start sabotaging or blowing up APs, sorta like the Sniper, arguing he's > rebelling from big brother. It wont be popular being a Wifi provider, > people will look at them like they look at the tobaco industry today. Maybe > even make it illegal in some places, like no-smoking. > > You may find my little prediction a bit over the top, and of course I was > having some fun with it. (to have a little fun and take a quick break from > a day of ruthless Linux compiling). > > But lets look at reality... I'm seeing more and more "no-cellphone/no-wifi" > signs each day. Keep an eye out for them. I see them in Opera houses, > Doctor offices, Hospitals, Theme parks, Cafes. movie theatres, fine dine > restaurants, etc. > > Does disney world want you on the Wifi, or in the gift shop? I can give an > example of a large venue, that had poor cell phone signal/coverage, and they > specifically disaalowed the installation of a cell phone repeater system to > improve it, because they didn't want attendees on the phone disrupting the > place with noise and loitering in the walk ways. The venues cant stop the > Cell phones and cameras, because people need their phones. But they have a > huge amount of control on whether they allow in Wifi and APs, and in what > capacity. MOre and MOre Coffee shops are going out of business, and > recognizing the Wifi users are taking up to much table space for too long, > and just not buuying enough coffee to pay for it. > > The truth is evevery one will have a cell phone ATT, Verizon, or Sprint cell > phone, which will have sufficient enough broadband for limited use. Limited > use is what the venue's really want. They want to advertise that they have > it (broadband), but they dont really want people to use it. The Time Warner > and Comcast types are entering into a business that they cant win. The big > telco already have the market, and Consumers dont need two Mobile providers. > The big telcos just have to much momentum. Peobably teh only thing cable > efforts will accomplish is incouraging the big telco to honor net neutrality > rules, so consumers have no reason to switch to public low grade Wifi. > > I had a case here near one of my cell sites. (similar things happened to me > at my several other of my cell sites) About a month ago, The city decided to > launch as 8 block Free wifi network at street level, advertised as a > cooperative effort of the City/county and one of my Wireline friendly > competitors. (notice they didn't ask the actual wireless providers near by > to participate on the project). The area is a Commercial high-rise district. > What good did this network provide? Was there even a need? I had offered > Free Wifi to that block for almost 5 years. (Although not for the last year, > cause when the AP died in a storm, I didn't bother to replace it). My cell > site was mostly used for commercial paying customers in 5.x, so it cost me > next to nothing to add the free 2.4 wifi. I dont think I ever had more than > 5 people connect in all the years, allbeit I.didn't advertise the service's > availabilty, and signal strength was not as strong as at street level, and > may not have made it into actual retail suites. But even then, there was a > local wifi guy that offered Wifi in that exact area for a while also, > broadcasting from the roof of a couple short restaurant buildings. > > Its just a science project for them. They built it, because someone thought > its what tey are supposed to do to keep up with the current trends, without > even qualifying a need. I just dont see the suits leaving their office > building to make a quick Wifi connections, standing on the street, or > fighting for the one park bench located at one specific street corner. It > was probably the most owrthless expendature and use of public money. The > outcome is nobody will use the network, and they wont repeat the model wide > scale, unless grant funds require spending the money. The ONLY Possible > benefit might be that on occasion, once or twice a year tops, they close the > streets for a city day where vendors setup booths on the street for a mini > festaville. Its possible that on those days, the public MIGHT occasionally > connect. Why they'd use their wifi and not their cellular broadband, I'd > wonder. > > I'm just not scared. > > Tom DeReggi > RapidDSL & Wireless, Inc > IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Jeremy L. Gaddis" <jer...@as54225.net> > To: "WISPA General List" <wireless@wispa.org> > Sent: Tuesday, February 07, 2012 1:14 AM > Subject: Re: [WISPA] Future of Wifi Offloading WAS: Ericsson is > buyingBelAir, betting on Wi-Fi > > >> On Jan 26, 2012, at 11:22 PM, John Scrivner wrote: >>> Here are my predictions based partly upon the acquisitions we have >>> seen of Atheros by Qualcomm and now this latest play into Wifi by >>> otherwise generally licensed zealots of the mobile world: >> >> [snip] >> >>> I predict we'll see all this come to pass by 2017-18. We'll see how >>> clear my crystal ball is in a few years. I hope you guys will remember >>> this then and be sure to pull it up and make fun of me for being so >>> far off....or not! :-) >> >> I predict you'll see it well before that. >> >> Someone else in the thread mentioned Comcast and Time Warner planning to >> roll out thousands of access points. Remember that both of these companies >> are also in the cellular game now. >> >> What's (one of) the biggest problem(s) cellular carriers are facing right >> now? The explosion in data traffic. >> >> They *need* to offload as much data traffic off of their networks as they >> can. They simply cannot handle the projected long-term growth in data >> traffic. >> >> Enter 802.11u. >> >> -- >> Jeremy L. Gaddis e: jer...@as54225.net >> Network Engineer m: +1.812.865.0581 >> >> >> >> >> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> WISPA Wants You! 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