Yes. It is a bit scary. We have to follow key indicators very closely. Peace and best wishes.
Xi On Dec 30, 6:19 pm, "Mercury.Sailor" <[email protected]> wrote: > > The jobless rate could reach 8.2 percent at the end of next year > > compared with last month’s 15-year high of 6.7 percent, according to > > the survey. > > In the year 1930 > > The GNP falls 9.4 percent from the year before. The unemployment rate > climbs from 3.2 to 8.7 percent. > > The Great Depression originated in the United States; historians most > often use as a starting date the stock market crash on October 29, > 1929, known as Black Tuesday. > > http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/Timeline.htm > > So according to the time line for the great depression, we were in the > depression for a year before we saw unemployment climb to 8.7%. > > Thats scares me. > > On Dec 30, 10:35 am, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> > wrote: > > > > > My comment: I told some months ago that we have to follow this > > indicator up very closely because it predicts social unrest in all > > economies. > > >http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aw3tMMqHeits&refe... > > > Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly > > dropped in December to a record low as Americans grew increasingly > > concerned about jobs, raising the risk that spending will keep > > weakening into the new year. > > > The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence fell to 38, the > > lowest level since records began in 1967, from 44.7 in November, the > > New York-based private research group said today. Another report > > showed declines in property values accelerated. > > > Rising unemployment, mounting foreclosures and declining household > > wealth have dimmed the outlook for consumer spending, which accounts > > for 70 percent of the economy. This year’s holiday season, the most > > important for retailers, was probably the worst in at least four > > decades. > > > “The deterioration going on right now in the labor market made people > > feel much worse,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global > > Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “If people are worried about > > their jobs, they are not going to spend. That is extremely negative.” > > > Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast the confidence figure > > would increase to 45.5 from a previously reported 44.9 for November, > > according to the median of 52 projections. Estimates ranged from 40 to > > 51.1. > > > Earlier today, reports showed the decline in home prices accelerated > > in October as credit dried up and foreclosures mounted, and business > > activity in December contracted for a third month. > > > Home Prices Drop > > > The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan areas > > fell a record 18 percent in October from a year earlier, led by > > declines in Phoenix and Las Vegas. All 20 cities showed a decline in > > the year ended in October. > > > The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its business index > > climbed to 34.1 this month from a 26-year low of 33.8 in November. > > Readings less than 50 signal contraction. > > > Stocks trimmed gains following the reports and Treasury securities > > fell. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.7 percent to 875.7 at > > 10:15 a.m. > > > The share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful fell to 6.2 > > percent, the lowest level in 16 years, from 8.7 percent last month, > > today’s report showed. The proportion of people who said jobs are hard > > to get increased to 42 percent from 37.1 percent. > > > Americans’ views about their financial well-being in future months > > deteriorated. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next > > six months decreased to 43.8 from 46.2 in November. > > > The share of respondents expecting their incomes to rise over the next > > six months fell to 12.7 percent from 13.1 percent. Americans were more > > hopeful of finding jobs in the future. > > > The measure of present conditions dropped to 29.4 from 42.3. > > > ‘Dismal’ Outlook > > > “The overall economic outlook remains quite dismal for the first half > > of 2009,” Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s consumer > > survey, said in a statement. > > > The grimmer view on jobs swamped the effects of the drop in gasoline > > prices that helped other confidence measures climb this month. The > > Reuters/University of Michigan’s sentiment gauge rose from November’s > > 28-year low. > > > The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline dropped to $1.62 on > > Dec. 28, down 61 percent from July’s record. > > > Even so, the decline isn’t enough to undo the damage from the loss of > > 1.9 million jobs so far this year and the record destruction in > > household wealth caused by the slump in home and stock prices. > > > Economy to Shrink > > > Gross domestic product contracted at a 0.5 percent annual pace in the > > third quarter, the worst performance in seven years, the Commerce > > Department said last week. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier > > this month projected the economy will contract at a 4.3 percent rate > > this quarter, hurt by another decline in consumer spending. > > > The jobless rate could reach 8.2 percent at the end of next year > > compared with last month’s 15-year high of 6.7 percent, according to > > the survey. > > > President-elect Barack Obama has expanded his economic stimulus goals > > and called for creating or saving 3 million jobs over the next two > > years. Vice President-elect Joe Biden said Dec. 23 the incoming > > administration and congressional leaders are nearing an agreement on > > the broad principles of a stimulus policy. > > > The International Council of Shopping Centers projects this was the > > worst holiday shopping season, the most important period for > > retailers, in at least four decades. > > > “It’s dismal,” Patrick Byrne, chief executive officer of > > Overstock.com, the Internet seller of discounted brand-name goods, > > said Dec. 24 in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “It seems the > > entire retail nation is running a going-out-of-business sale. It means > > the pricing is very competitive.” --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. 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