Yes, let's star it as a "favorite" and keep it in our individual "favorite" lists -- that way we can find it and keep adding to it.
Some time, not today since you are so busy making merry, I would like you to tell me about the special circumstances in Japan. Is it methodology or something in their society that keeps that number low but still no social unrest? We'll talk about it another time, especially since whatever the "mix" we may have to try it soon here. On Dec 31, 11:11 am, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote: > Thank you very much for your reply. > > (((((Justice))))) > > Now, I understand it better. > > BTW, 38 is very low, but it does not mean social unrest, it means > conflicts. Its fall, 6 points, is much more scary. And the fact that > the hope-effect lasted just one month is a bit scary as well. > > You must expect serious social unrest below 30. And you must expect > important changes in the politic system as it moves toward 20. > Probably, at 20, the whole politic system changes, this is my opinion > because very rarely this index reaches 20, at least during my > professional lifetime. > > For comparison, in December in Canada it is 67.7, in Britain > (different barometer but same methodology it is -5 (that means around > 45) it rose one point from previous month, what is reasonable, it > means that it is flat more or less. > > http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-3502870_ITMhttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-12/23/content_10544871.htm > > In Watch of Asian economies, things are more clear and I can show > better what I mean. > > I use Mastercard index because it is exactly the same survey for all > Asia, although it is monitored by half-year periods. > > Watch first Malaysia (35.9) or Philippines (40). > > http://www.masterintelligence.com/ViewRegionReport.jsp?hidReportTypeI... > > In the higher side we find Vietnam (88.1) and China (76.6). > > In the lower side we see the effect of this index. > > Thailand (26.2). Government has resigned after riots in airports. > Parties in government have been banned and new governement is under > tthreat. > > SKorea (31.4). Several ministers had to resign because millions were > on streets protesting against American meat imports. > > Japan (17.2) is an special case because its economy and its social > system are very special as well. > > I wish we could understand this index pretty well and to follow it up > in this group as one of the key indicators for the near future. > > Again, thank you very much (((((Justice))))) > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > > > Justice wrote: > > Just as I was leaving the house I heard this on NPR and thought of you > > because of our messages not so long ago wherein you told me that this > > indicator was lower than you had ever seen it for any modern economy, > > especially a 1st world economy. > > > And your observations made me wonder why we don't have people in the > > streets talking about a revolution. > > > Here are the reasons people are holding back. > > > 1) a lot of hope that Obama will be able to fix some things right away > > and perhaps get some people back to work. > > > 2) we are experiencing a very cold winter through most of the US -- > > not in the south, but the south is the least "revolutionary" part of > > the country. They are "reactionary" -- one of them may kill Obama, > > not because he's a poor leader but because they expect him to be a > > poor leader. > > > when the weather warms up, if things haven't changed AND obama has > > been unable to communicate where he believes we are goiing, and > > provide some kind of timetable and plan to get us there, you're going > > to see some poor people at least lining up for soup kitchens with > > signs in their hands asking the government for work. > > > 3) We've experienced very few out and out riots in this country and > > almost all of them have been triggered by emotionally events. Once -- > > men who had fought in WWI were promised a bonus and didn't get it. > > When times were really hard, and they needed their money, they marched > > on Washington -- and they were given "bonus" dollars. > > > We've had worker demonstrations (a workers' riot in NY when hundreds > > of young women were burned to death because a manufacturer had all of > > his doors locked), peace marches, etc. but no out-and-out call for > > democratic principles like in Poland or in Ukraine. > > > It will be interesting to watch from a "technical" point of view. > > What happens when people lose hope? We see more aggression in the > > "young black man" category; it's been rising for the last couple of > > years. Which is the next break out category -- young white men? > > > On Dec 30, 2:32 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > Yes. It is a bit scary. We have to follow key indicators very closely. > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > Xi > > > > On Dec 30, 6:19 pm, "Mercury.Sailor" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > The jobless rate could reach 8.2 percent at the end of next year > > > > > compared with last month s 15-year high of 6.7 percent, according to > > > > > the survey. > > > > > In the year 1930 > > > > > The GNP falls 9.4 percent from the year before. The unemployment rate > > > > climbs from 3.2 to 8.7 percent. > > > > > The Great Depression originated in the United States; historians most > > > > often use as a starting date the stock market crash on October 29, > > > > 1929, known as Black Tuesday. > > > > >http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/Timeline.htm > > > > > So according to the time line for the great depression, we were in the > > > > depression for a year before we saw unemployment climb to 8.7%. > > > > > Thats scares me. > > > > > On Dec 30, 10:35 am, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> > > > > wrote: > > > > > > My comment: I told some months ago that we have to follow this > > > > > indicator up very closely because it predicts social unrest in all > > > > > economies. > > > > > >http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aw3tMMqHeits&refe... > > > > > > Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly > > > > > dropped in December to a record low as Americans grew increasingly > > > > > concerned about jobs, raising the risk that spending will keep > > > > > weakening into the new year. > > > > > > The Conference Board s index of consumer confidence fell to 38, the > > > > > lowest level since records began in 1967, from 44.7 in November, the > > > > > New York-based private research group said today. Another report > > > > > showed declines in property values accelerated. > > > > > > Rising unemployment, mounting foreclosures and declining household > > > > > wealth have dimmed the outlook for consumer spending, which accounts > > > > > for 70 percent of the economy. This year s holiday season, the most > > > > > important for retailers, was probably the worst in at least four > > > > > decades. > > > > > > The deterioration going on right now in the labor market made people > > > > > feel much worse, said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global > > > > > Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. If people are worried about > > > > > their jobs, they are not going to spend. That is extremely negative. > > > > > > Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast the confidence figure > > > > > would increase to 45.5 from a previously reported 44.9 for November, > > > > > according to the median of 52 projections. Estimates ranged from 40 to > > > > > 51.1. > > > > > > Earlier today, reports showed the decline in home prices accelerated > > > > > in October as credit dried up and foreclosures mounted, and business > > > > > activity in December contracted for a third month. > > > > > > Home Prices Drop > > > > > > The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan areas > > > > > fell a record 18 percent in October from a year earlier, led by > > > > > declines in Phoenix and Las Vegas. All 20 cities showed a decline in > > > > > the year ended in October. > > > > > > The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its business index > > > > > climbed to 34.1 this month from a 26-year low of 33.8 in November. > > > > > Readings less than 50 signal contraction. > > > > > > Stocks trimmed gains following the reports and Treasury securities > > > > > fell. The Standard & Poor s 500 index rose 0.7 percent to 875.7 at > > > > > 10:15 a.m. > > > > > > The share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful fell to 6.2 > > > > > percent, the lowest level in 16 years, from 8.7 percent last month, > > > > > today s report showed. The proportion of people who said jobs are hard > > > > > to get increased to 42 percent from 37.1 percent. > > > > > > Americans views about their financial well-being in future months > > > > > deteriorated. The Conference Board s gauge of the outlook for the next > > > > > six months decreased to 43.8 from 46.2 in November. > > > > > > The share of respondents expecting their incomes to rise over the next > > > > > six months fell to 12.7 percent from 13.1 percent. Americans were more > > > > > hopeful of finding jobs in the future. > > > > > > The measure of present conditions dropped to 29.4 from 42.3. > > > > > > Dismal Outlook > > > > > > The overall economic outlook remains quite dismal for the first half > > > > > of 2009, Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board s consumer > > > > > survey, said in a statement. > > > > > > The grimmer view on jobs swamped the effects of the drop in gasoline > > > > > prices that helped other confidence measures climb this month. The > > > > > Reuters/University of Michigan s sentiment gauge rose from November s > > > > > 28-year low. > > > > > > The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline dropped to $1.62 on > > > > > Dec. 28, down 61 percent from July s record. > > > > > > Even so, the decline isn t enough to undo the damage from the loss of > > > > > 1.9 million jobs so far this year and the record destruction in > > > > > household wealth caused by the slump in home and stock prices. > > > > > > Economy to Shrink > > > > > > Gross domestic product contracted at a 0.5 percent annual pace in the > > > > > third quarter, the worst performance in seven years, the Commerce > > > > > Department said last week. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier > > > > > this month projected the economy will contract at a 4.3 percent rate > > > > > this quarter, hurt by > > ... > > read more »- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
