My comment: Present situation remains into the red area. As situation will not improve, we should not expect that it raises above 30. Probably Obama-hope has sustained expectations more or less (43.0 from 44.2).
Peace and best wishes. Xi The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™ Dips in January January 27, 2009 http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™, which had decreased in December, inched lower in January and continues to be at a historic low. The Index now stands at 37.7 (1985=100), down from 38.6 in December. The Present Situation Index declined slightly to 29.9 from 30.2 last month. The Expectations Index decreased moderately to 43.0 from 44.2. Consumer Confidence in the U.S. Fell to Record Low http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aw.LoDkJtM.I&refer=home Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in January to a record low as job prospects remained dim. The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence fell to 37.7, from a revised 38.6 in December, the New York-based private research group said today. Records began in 1967. Measures related to Americans’ views on incomes deteriorated. Caterpillar Inc. and Home Depot Inc. were among companies yesterday that said they will cut at least 74,000 workers from payrolls in coming months as sales drop and the recession deepens. President Barack Obama is trying to drum up support for quick passage of a stimulus plan that aims to create jobs, cut taxes and boost infrastructure spending. “The consumer is being squeezed on so many sides,” Douglas Smith, chief economist for the Americas at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “We’re going to have to see some turn in the labor market before we see much upside for consumer confidence.” Economists forecast confidence would rise to 39, from a previously reported 38 for December, according to the median of 70 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 35 to 45. Housing Slump An earlier report today showed home prices fell 18.2 percent in November from a year earlier, the biggest drop since records began in 2001, according to figures from S&P/Case- Shiller that cover 20 metropolitan areas. All the regions were down in the 12 months to November, led by a 33 percent slump in Phoenix and a 32 percent slide in Las Vegas. Stocks surrendered earlier gains following the confidence report. The S&P 500 index was little changed at 836.27 at 10:11 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.61 percent from 2.64 percent late yesterday. Obama’s administration will direct more of the second half of a $700 billion financial rescue plan to open up credit for consumers and businesses and stem home foreclosures, his spokesman said yesterday. The president has asked his economic advisers for recommendations “specifically addressing home foreclosures, addressing financial stability in banks,” White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said in a briefing. Meanwhile, lawmakers are debating an $825 billion package of tax cuts and new federal spending that the president hopes will be passed by the middle of next month. Growing Pessimism A gauge of Americans’ view about the current economic environment dropped to 29.9 from 30.2. The Conference Board’s measure of the outlook for the next six months decreased to 43 from 44.2 in December. Today’s report showed the share of consumers who said their incomes were likely to increase over the next 6 months fell to 10 percent, the lowest on record. Perceptions on the current state of the job market climbed from December levels. A gauge of whether jobs are plentiful rose to 7.2 from 6.5, while the proportion of people who said jobs are hard to get decreased to 41.1 percent from 41.5 percent. “Consumers remain quite pessimistic about the state of the economy and about their earnings,” Lynn Franco, director of the group’s consumer survey, said in a statement. “We can’t say that the worst of times are behind us.” Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, said yesterday it’s cutting 20,000 jobs and this year’s profit and sales will trail analysts’ estimates. The jobs include 12,000 employees, or 11 percent of the workforce, and 8,000 contractors, spokesman Jim Dugan said. Recession Deepens The U.S. recession, which began in December 2007, has so far cost 2.6 million jobs and is already the longest in a quarter century. The world’s largest economy probably contracted at a 5.5 percent annual pace from October through December, the biggest drop since 1982, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Commerce Department figures due Jan. 30. Consumer spending, the largest part of the economy, is forecast to have dropped at a 3.5 percent pace last quarter after slumping at a 3.8 percent rate the previous three months. It would be the first time purchases declined more than 3 percent in consecutive quarters since records began in 1947. “We are in the midst of a global economic crisis,” Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s vice chairman and future chief executive officer, Mike Duke, told employees of the world’s largest retailer yesterday. Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart said this month that fourth-quarter profit will miss its forecast and predicted revenue in January will be little changed. Harley Cuts Jobs Fourth-quarter profit at Harley-Davidson Inc., the biggest U.S. motorcycle maker, dropped 58 percent and the company said Jan. 23 it plans to cut 1,100 jobs and close three facilities. The company declined to project earnings for this year and said it’s reducing shipments by as much as 13 percent to prevent excess inventory. “We are certainly not immune to the current economic conditions,” Chief Executive Officer Jim Ziemer said in a conference call Jan. 23. Retail sales this year may drop 0.5 percent, the first decline in at least 14 years, according to a forecast today by the National Retail Federation. The group made its first projection, which excludes autos, gas stations and restaurants, in 1995. On Jan 1, 5:38 am, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote: > I will elaborate more in detail in this thread. > > Very briefly, it is related to the new civilization how current > indicators are not accurate to measure those societies. > > Indicators for Japan must be interpreted in a different way than for > the rest of the world. Of course, that statement implies to accept > some theories, and not everybody does it. > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > On Dec 31 2008, 9:28 pm, Justice <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > Yes, let's star it as a "favorite" and keep it in our individual > > "favorite" lists -- that way we can find it and keep adding to it. > > > Some time, not today since you are so busy making merry, I would like > > you to tell me about the special circumstances in Japan. Is it > > methodology or something in their society that keeps that number low > > but still no social unrest? > > > We'll talk about it another time, especially since whatever the "mix" > > we may have to try it soon here. > > > On Dec 31, 11:11 am, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> > > wrote: > > > > Thank you very much for your reply. > > > > (((((Justice))))) > > > > Now, I understand it better. > > > > BTW, 38 is very low, but it does not mean social unrest, it means > > > conflicts. Its fall, 6 points, is much more scary. And the fact that > > > the hope-effect lasted just one month is a bit scary as well. > > > > You must expect serious social unrest below 30. And you must expect > > > important changes in the politic system as it moves toward 20. > > > Probably, at 20, the whole politic system changes, this is my opinion > > > because very rarely this index reaches 20, at least during my > > > professional lifetime. > > > > For comparison, in December in Canada it is 67.7, in Britain > > > (different barometer but same methodology it is -5 (that means around > > > 45) it rose one point from previous month, what is reasonable, it > > > means that it is flat more or less. > > > >http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-3502870_ITMhttp://n... > > > > In Watch of Asian economies, things are more clear and I can show > > > better what I mean. > > > > I use Mastercard index because it is exactly the same survey for all > > > Asia, although it is monitored by half-year periods. > > > > Watch first Malaysia (35.9) or Philippines (40). > > > >http://www.masterintelligence.com/ViewRegionReport.jsp?hidReportTypeI... > > > > In the higher side we find Vietnam (88.1) and China (76.6). > > > > In the lower side we see the effect of this index. > > > > Thailand (26.2). Government has resigned after riots in airports. > > > Parties in government have been banned and new governement is under > > > tthreat. > > > > SKorea (31.4). Several ministers had to resign because millions were > > > on streets protesting against American meat imports. > > > > Japan (17.2) is an special case because its economy and its social > > > system are very special as well. > > > > I wish we could understand this index pretty well and to follow it up > > > in this group as one of the key indicators for the near future. > > > > Again, thank you very much (((((Justice))))) > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > Xi > > > > Justice wrote: > > > > Just as I was leaving the house I heard this on NPR and thought of you > > > > because of our messages not so long ago wherein you told me that this > > > > indicator was lower than you had ever seen it for any modern economy, > > > > especially a 1st world economy. > > > > > And your observations made me wonder why we don't have people in the > > > > streets talking about a revolution. > > > > > Here are the reasons people are holding back. > > > > > 1) a lot of hope that Obama will be able to fix some things right away > > > > and perhaps get some people back to work. > > > > > 2) we are experiencing a very cold winter through most of the US -- > > > > not in the south, but the south is the least "revolutionary" part of > > > > the country. They are "reactionary" -- one of them may kill Obama, > > > > not because he's a poor leader but because they expect him to be a > > > > poor leader. > > > > > when the weather warms up, if things haven't changed AND obama has > > > > been unable to communicate where he believes we are goiing, and > > > > provide some kind of timetable and plan to get us there, you're going > > > > to see some poor people at least lining up for soup kitchens with > > > > signs in their hands asking the government for work. > > > > > 3) We've experienced very few out and out riots in this country and > > > > almost all of them have been triggered by emotionally events. Once -- > > > > men who had fought in WWI were promised a bonus and didn't get it. > > > > When times were really hard, and they needed their money, they marched > > > > on Washington -- and they were given "bonus" dollars. > > > > > We've had worker demonstrations (a workers' riot in NY when hundreds > > > > of young women were burned to death because a manufacturer had all of > > > > his doors locked), peace marches, etc. but no out-and-out call for > > > > democratic principles like in Poland or in Ukraine. > > > > > It will be interesting to watch from a "technical" point of view. > > > > What happens when people lose hope? We see more aggression in the > > > > "young black man" category; it's been rising for the last couple of > > > > years. Which is the next break out category -- young white men? > > > > > On Dec 30, 2:32 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > Yes. It is a bit scary. We have to follow key indicators very closely. > > > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > > > Xi > > > > > > On Dec 30, 6:19 pm, "Mercury.Sailor" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > > The jobless rate could reach 8.2 percent at the end of next year > > > > > > > compared with last month s 15-year high of 6.7 percent, according > > > > > > > to > > > > > > > the survey. > > > > > > > In the year 1930 > > > > > > > The GNP falls 9.4 percent from the year before. The unemployment > > > > > > rate > > > > > > climbs from 3.2 to 8.7 percent. > > > > > > > The Great Depression originated in the United States; historians > > > > > > most > > > > > > often use as a starting date the stock market crash on October 29, > > > > > > 1929, known as Black Tuesday. > > > > > > >http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/Timeline.htm > > > > > > > So according to the time line for the great depression, we were in > > > > > > the > > > > > > depression for a year before we saw unemployment climb to 8.7%. > > > > > > > Thats scares me. > > > > > > > On Dec 30, 10:35 am, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> > > > > > > wrote: > > > > > > > > My comment: I told some months ago that we have to follow this > > > > > > > indicator up very closely because it predicts social unrest in all > > > > > > > economies. > > > > > > > >http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aw3tMMqHeits&refe... > > > > > > > > Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) --Confidenceamong U.S. consumers unexpectedly > > > > > > > dropped in December to a record low as Americans grew increasingly > > > > > > > concerned about jobs, raising the risk that spending will keep > > > > > > > weakening into the new year. > > > > > > > > The Conference Board s index ofconsumerconfidencefell to 38, the > > > > > > > lowest level since records began in 1967, from 44.7 in November, > > > > > > > the > > > > > > > New York-based private research group said today. Another report > > > > > > > showed declines in property values accelerated. > > > > > > > > Rising unemployment, mounting foreclosures and declining household > > > > > > > wealth have dimmed the outlook forconsumerspending, which accounts > > > > > > > for 70 percent of the economy. This year s holiday season, the > > > > > > > most > > > > > > > important for retailers, was probably the worst in at least four > > > > > > > decades. > > > > > > > > The deterioration going on right now in the labor market made > > > > > > > people > > > > > > > feel much worse, said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS > > > > > > > Global > > > > > > > Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. If people are worried about > > > > > > > their jobs, they are not going to spend. That is extremely > > > > > > > negative. > > > > > > > > Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast theconfidencefigure > > > > > > > would increase to 45.5 from a previously reported 44.9 for > > > > > > > November, > > > > > > > according to the median of 52 projections. Estimates ranged from > > > > > > > 40 to > > > > > > > 51.1. > > > > > > > > Earlier today, reports showed the decline in home prices > > > > > > > accelerated > > > > > > > in October as credit dried up and foreclosures mounted, and > > > > > > > business > > > > > > > activity in December contracted for a third month. > > > > > > > > Home Prices Drop > > > > > > > > The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan > > > > > > > areas > > > > > > > fell a record 18 percent in October from a year earlier, led by > > > > > > > declines in Phoenix and Las Vegas. All 20 cities showed a decline > > > > > > > in > > > > > > > the year ended in October. > > > > > > > > The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its business > > > > > > > index > > > > > > > climbed to 34.1 this month from a 26-year low of 33.8 in November. > > > > > > > Readings less than 50 signal contraction. > > > > > > > > Stocks trimmed gains following the reports and Treasury securities > > > > > > > fell. The Standard & Poor s 500 index rose 0.7 percent to 875.7 at > > > > > > > 10:15 a.m. > > > > > > > > The share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful fell to 6.2 > > > > > > > percent, the lowest level in 16 years, from 8.7 percent last > > > > > > > month, > > > > > > > today s report showed. The proportion of people who said jobs are > > > > > > > hard > > > > > > > to get increased to 42 percent from 37.1 percent. > > > > > > > > Americans views about their financial well-being in future months > > > > > > > deteriorated. The Conference Board s gauge of the outlook for the > > > > > > > next > > > > > > > six months decreased to 43.8 from 46.2 in November. > > > > > > > > The share of respondents expecting their incomes to rise over the > > > > > > > next > > > > > > > six months fell > > ... > > read more » --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
