Once I could show why and how future can be predicted (maturity model) and also where in the road-map are Malaysia and Australia into the global economy, I can describe the point where they both are now based on their evolution. And finally, in my next message in this thread, actual values of main indicators and brief conclusion and prediction based on all the above.
Some data series help to show that evolution. I use that site very often because it is easy to handle once one practice several times with it. You can click on "play" to watch how it evolves. Also, you can click other countries as well at its right side and other indicators. Most data sources are from U.N. agencies. First of all some economic data series. GDP growth. We can see how Malaysia and Australia GDP grew in recent decades. I think this graph is mandatory in any economic analysis. :) http://graphs.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=6;ti=2006$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=ti;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=pyj6tScZqmEfI4sLVvEQtHw;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL%5Fn5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=lin;dataMin=1960;dataMax=2006$map_y;scale=log;dataMin=25531524;dataMax=11410956353536$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=i13_p001960dyaC;i134_h001960bHcm As we can see on the next graph, population growth rate are similar in both countries. I mean, population growth does not interfere comparison of GDP growth in this particular comparison. http://graphs.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=6;ti=2006$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=ti;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=pyj6tScZqmEcl2xDWbuJ8fg;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL%5Fn5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=lin;dataMin=1960;dataMax=2006$map_y;scale=log;dataMin=-44.4084;dataMax=18$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=i134_h001960fUco;i13_p001960dyaC But next graph tells more. We see that Australia started its development around 1870 while Malaysia did it around 1930. Life expentacy in Malaysia in 1934 was 34 years, as much as in Australia in 1870. We can say that at that time, Malaysia was 64 years on delay versus Australia. In 1977, life expentancy in Malaysia reached 65 years, as in Australia in 1936, delay between Australia and Malaysia contracted to 41 (1977 vs. 1936). And finally, in 2007, life expentancy in Malaysia reached 75 years; as old as Australia in 1982, just 25 years on delay. http://graphs.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=6;ti=2007$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=ti;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj2tPLxKvvnNPA;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL%5Fn5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=lin;dataMin=1800;dataMax=2007$map_y;scale=lin;dataMin=12;dataMax=83$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=i13_l001800bCc0;i134_l001800dNcF Something like that can be seen on the next data series too. This one about infant mortality rate. http://graphs.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=6;ti=2006$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=ti;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0NpF2PTov2Cw;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL%5Fn5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=lin;dataMin=1800;dataMax=2006$map_y;scale=log;dataMin=2;dataMax=420$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=i13_l001870bCc0;i134_l001960dNcF I do not like too much to size wealth or income per person in terms of monetary units, I choose to use on the one hand saving rates (unavailable for this comparison) and on the other hand consumption of certain goods that define a society much better (such as cell phones, food, etc). In this way, we avoid interference of local prices and currency exchange rates. http://graphs.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=6;ti=2004$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=ti;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj2ZMli4YTn2Ag;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL%5Fn5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=lin;dataMin=1980;dataMax=2006$map_y;scale=log;dataMin=0;dataMax=172$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=i13_h001980dPaO;i134_d001991cia4 We can see that there is a gap between Australia and Malaysia, but also we can see that it is more and more narrow. About the near future, I use mostly two sort of graphs. One the one hand a key indicator, capital formation. On the other hand where population lives and works. Capital formation is briefly how much an economy invests on future production although there are better and more accurate definitions (*). Somehow, it predicts growth within 5 to 10 years in the future. The important value is not the absolute value of capital formation as this graph shows, but its rate on GDP. As you can see, Malaysia has not addressed too much since 2000 (capital formation is flat while GDP grew), that predicts defficulties along the next 5 to 10 years in Malaysia´s economy. http://graphs.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=6;ti=2006$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=ti;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=pyj6tScZqmEfAzk6a6Ej8Rw;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL%5Fn5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=lin;dataMin=1960;dataMax=2006$map_y;scale=log;dataMin=0;dataMax=100000000000000$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=i13_l001971bEbe;i134_p001960bobP Although it is not related to Australia vs. Malaysia, you can compare China vs. USA in the next graph to understand better that indicator, capital formation. It predicts different growth rate between China´s economy and US economy. http://graphs.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=6;ti=2006$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=ti;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=pyj6tScZqmEfAzk6a6Ej8Rw;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL%5Fn5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=lin;dataMin=1960;dataMax=2006$map_y;scale=log;dataMin=0;dataMax=100000000000000$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=i13_l001971bEbe;i134_d001960b5bh;i239_t001960,,,,;i44_t001965,,,, And how it can be funded, throgh foreign balance. As you can see, both in Australia and in Malaysia it is very volatile. It is usual in commodity producers as exports depend on market price, usually very volatile. But, in both cases, it seems healthy enough, maybe more in Malaysia than in Australia because Malaysia has become more Asian (its economy is now more Japanese, Chinese alike) http://graphs.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=6;ti=2006$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=ti;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=pyj6tScZqmEfN1BgU8h6vUg;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL%5Fn5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=lin;dataMin=1948;dataMax=2030$map_y;scale=log;dataMin=-758524000000;dataMax=208912000000$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=i13_h001960cTca;i134_d001974b2b3 An important sign of development is share between agriculture-industry- services and also urban population. Next graph show % of contribution of agriculture to GDP in each country. http://graphs.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=6;ti=2006$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=ti;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=pyj6tScZqmEfFhcpJWYaKeg;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL%5Fn5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=lin;dataMin=1960;dataMax=2006$map_y;scale=lin;dataMin=0;dataMax=95$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=i134_l001960awaS;i13_h001971ajaB Next one industry And next one services. http://graphs.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=6;ti=2006$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=ti;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=pyj6tScZqmEc2Hr4fjvQ6ew;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL%5Fn5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=lin;dataMin=1960;dataMax=2006$map_y;scale=lin;dataMin=2.939;dataMax=93$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=i134_l001960boaX;i13_p001971afba At the very end of the graph (last years) you can see that in both economies, along former few years, services are declining while industry gains. In Malaysia industry grew non-stop. Some people see it as a negative sign (less development). We disagree. At a certain point in the maturity path, services grow based on presence-job activities (retail, customer care services, etc.). Those sort of jobs use to be poorly paid and their contribution to real growth is small too. Since that point, more efficient economies tend to move those people to industry again. I will use all these data for my conclusions in my next message. Peace and best wishes. Xi (*) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_formation --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
