The population may be at unsustainably high levels for the long term, but
the pace of technological change is escalating so quickly I'm amazed anyone
can take an attitude towards the future other than alert interest.

Say it maxes out at 15 Billion - there's a plethora of ways to feed and
house those people without paving over the rest of the biosphere, killing
the large mammals, burning the remaining fossil fuels and using the rest of
the topsoil.

Will people muster the will not to?  People are fairly bad at responding to
long distant threats (like the potential for over-warming from CO2
emissions predicted in the 70s).  But they are really remarkable at
responding to in their face threats, like the super storms, droughts,
melting ice caps, and so on that we have today.

So I'm not going to expect disaster or eutopia.  I thought we'd be on the
Moon in 2012 or else destroyed by nuclear war.  Expectations tells more
about the thinker than anything else.

If you do like predicting the future, I'd recommend Nate Silver's recent
book, very enjoyable broad look at various fields of prediction with a
fairly balanced assessment of what works and what hasn't, and why.

--Chris


Thanks,

--Chris
[email protected]
+1-301-270-6524


On Thu, Nov 29, 2012 at 1:42 PM, Joe <[email protected]> wrote:

> RAF, Edgar,
>
> I withhold my "Gosh-Oh!" until doomsday actually comes.
>
> But it may be forthcoming.  We'll all three be the first and last to know.
>
> --Joe
>
> > R A Fonda <rafonda@...> wrote:
> >
> > On 11/29/2012 4:08 PM, Edgar Owen wrote:
> > > Nice poem and certainly to the point!
> >
> > gassho
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> Current Book Discussion: any Zen book that you recently have read or are
> reading! Talk about it today!Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>

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