J Storrs Hall, PhD wrote:
I'd be interested in everyone's take on the following:
1. What is the single biggest technical gap between current AI and AGI? (e.g.
we need a way to do X or we just need more development of Y or we have the
ideas, just need hardware, etc)
The gap is a matter of (a) methodology and (b) tools. To close the gap
we need to understand that AGI systems can only be built if we use a
methodology that takes account of the complexity likely to exist in
intelligent systems, and that this implies a need to stay as close as
possible to emulating the high-level (not neural) design of the human
mind. The tools needed are specifically those that would support the
methodology.
2. Do you have an idea as to what should should be done about (1) that would
significantly accelerate progress if it were generally adopted?
A large scale project to implement the prescription given in (1).
3. If (2), how long would it take the field to attain (a) a baby mind, (b) a
mature human-equivalent AI, if your idea(s) were adopted and AGI seriously
pursued?
Impossible to put numbers on this without further work. At the pure
guess level, however, I would say it *could* happen in as little as
(a) 5 years and (b) 8 years.
4. How long to (a) and (b) if AI research continues more or less as it is
doing now?
It would probably not happen at all.
Richard Loosemore
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