>Though these were all experienced and confident men, the average year to year correlation
in their results was 0.01. The highly rewarded experts of finance
have no real idea what they're doing, they are highly rewarded for an
"illusion of skill"<
One of my father-in-law's best friends was a man named Eli Shapiro who
was the Alfred P Sloan Professor of Economics at MIT. My FIL asked
him some question about stock investing. Shapiro said, "Chuck, nobody
knows anything."
And yet there is a huge amount of money flowing into the pockets of the
financial advisors, stock brokers, economic pundits, etc. Giant
buildings are built to house the folks working in that industry right
next to their Insurance Industry cousins?
I take "the efficient market hypothesis" at face value (as best I can)
so it doesn't surprise me that anyone's presumed/imagined ability to
predict significantly is at least very limited.
I think this is one of the reasons that an open-ended "growth economy"
is so popular, it make everyone willing to take on the mantle, a /_"tide
whisperer"_/, pretending their shamanic actions/words are lifting those
boats?
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