RE: The structure of future work and its consequences

["Cordell, Arthur: #ECOM - COMÉ"]

Yes it appears that FW is now "up and running".   Thanx to Sally Lerner and
techies at Univ of Waterloo.

Keith has posted an interesting and provocative view of the structure of
work.  And did it in a remarkably brief way.

What I draw from his posting is that if Keith is correct then we need to put
in place policies for social cohesion and income distribution ASAP.  Time
for a basic income?  Ways in which income can be disconnected from work?

The alternative will be to try to live with a two tier society and all
implications that flow from such an outcome.

arthur cordell
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From: Keith Hudson
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: FW: The structure of future work and its consequences
Date: Friday, January 07, 2000 2:42AM

Happy New Year to all FWers. (I'm assuming that Futurework is operational
now!) Here's something I wrote over the break and which will appear in a
new type of Internet encyclopedia  starting in about a month
(<www.calus.org>)

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THE STRUCTURE OF FUTURE WORK AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
Keith Hudson

The structure of future employment will not be compatible with the
distribution of talent


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In human history there have been four distinctly different types of
economies, each requiring different working structures, or intellectual
inputs. The four phases are: 1. Hunter-Gatherer; 2. Peasant Agriculture; 3.
Manufacturing Industry; 4. Post-industrial Service Society.

1. Hunter-gatherer. Homo sapiens emerged from primate origins several
million years ago and became indistinguishably human at about 50,000 years
ago. Most of man's food was collected by the females, but topped up with
animal protein from the hunting expeditions of the males. Their daily life
was perilous because predators could easily attack their primitive camps
and hunting groups, and the unintelligent or incapable would be easily
culled. By definition, the normal genetic distribution of abilities that
man's predecessors had evolved over millions of years precisely matched the
'job structure' of early man.  For our purposes, this genetic distribution
may be considered to be a diamond shape in which the abilities of the broad
mass of the population lie across the widest part of the diamond, with
decreasingly fewer people of much higher or lower abilities occupying the
top and and bottom parts of the shape.

2. Peasant Agriculture: From the time when man had finally extinguished
most slow-moving large game at around 10,000BC, he had to resort
increasingly to settled agriculture. Generally, this required far less
intelligence than hunting. However, the ability to store cereals and the
development of metal products (including coinage) which then followed meant
that wealth could be passed on within families and, from then onwards,
society became dynastic and intensely hierarchical. The various civil and
religious authorites ensured that the peasantry were well and truly
conditioned to accept their role and not to develop their inborn abilities.
While suppresion of this sort could be maintained for quite a long time
within a hierarchical society it could not be maintained for ever. The bad
fit between the distribution of abilities and the nature of
work/opportunities and the subsequent tensions have been the cause of
repeated strife and savagery in every agricultural civilisation from about
5,000BC until the present day.

3. Manufacturing Industry. The first successful long-term development of
manufacturing industry from about 1700 onwards in Europe meant that the
uneducated peasants were forced off the land and into the factories. Here,
a higher skill level was necessary and many new skills had to be acquired.
In addition, the industrial society required a considerable extension in
the number of professional and academic jobs, and there were huge
opportunities for able and enterprising individuals. The pyramidal
structure of jobs of the previous agricultural era would no longer do. The
requirements of industrial society were much more akin to the
diamond-shaped distribution of abilities and, generally speaking,
industrial societies have been somewhat more peaceful than the wars and
revolutions that characterise peasant societies.

4. Post-Industrial Service society. Since about the middle of the 20th
century, the types of industry which needed large numbers of workers of
average abilities have seriously declined. Automation, plus an even faster
growth of brand new service occupations, means that people with high
abilities are at a premium. At the same time, there is a considerable
dumbing down of many traditional service jobs.  The job structure in the
developed countries is thus rapidly becoming more akin to an hourglass
rather than a pyramid or a diamond. The shape of an hour-glass is very
different from that of the diamond. The mismatch betwen abilities and
requirements will undoubtedly lead to renewed civil problems in developed
countries and, as some aver, a widening gulf between two parts of the human
population.
________________________________________________________________________

Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com
6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England
Tel: +44 1225 312622;  Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
________________________________________________________________________