Selma Singer:
> I find the whole idea of using technological tools to help devise better > social structure, very, very exciting. As long as the techology is seen as a > TOOL for human purposes, that is. > > Why would it not be possible to feed a computer the kinds of outcomes one > would want to see and what characteristics the behavior would exhibit and > have the computer HELP us think about that. I'm not saying the computer > would necessarily be able to devise those structures but it very well may be > able to help us in our thinking about the strategies we would need to > employ, especially in getting from where we are now to where we might want > to be. > Computers can be helpful but are limited. The are most helpful where cause and effect linkages are known, or even known with considerable imprecission. For example, economists use them to predict the effects of changes in interest rates, the IPCC has used them to predict the consequences of climate change, and environmental scientists can use them to determine the changes in streamflow characterisics and other variables in the case of an impeded waterway. So some specific cause/effect relationships can be modelled and predicted, using computers. However, I don't think you can go beyond that and use computers to predict change in society as a whole or to somehow model positive social change. It's just too complicated, recursive and uncertain, and there is often little agreement on the positives and negatives of change. I'm afraid we'll just have to lurch on with a little support from the microchip, but not very much. Ed Weick
