Peter Murray-Rust wrote: > > There seems to be two incompatible arguments about the effect of Green OA: > > 1. Green OA presents no threat to subscription publishing [...] > > 2. [...] Green OA will destroy the subscription market. >
I've been struggling with the same dilemma for a long time, and much more since I've launched a campaign to have my university adopt a Green OA deposit mandate, where this issue is regularly raised and has to be addressed. The truth is that we don't know what will happen. One can equally envision any scenario along a spectrum between: A. Green OA (actually ~20%) reaching an upper limit well below 100 % (mandates not generalizing), with limited TA to (Gold) OA conversion among journals, resulting in few subscription cancellations, and (possibly) a slight decrease of total costs to the community (ultimately the taxpayers) due to (1) OA publishing being inherently less expensive, and (2) market pressure (authors choosing an OA journal based in part on its impact/publishing fees ratio). B. Green OA reaching ~100% with total TA to OA conversion, and journals downsizing to peer-review providers (the other publication functions being overtaken by repositories), resulting in a huge overall cost decrease to the community. While the #2 end of the spectrum may certainly be seen as a threat to publishers, or at least to some of them, it's extremely hard to predict which scenario is likely to occur, and to what extent any specific scenario constitutes a "real" threat. One can easily imagine a scenario with 100% Green OA and journals (partially or totally converted to OA) keeping their actual functions. One problem is that some publishers seem to consider as a threat any pressure to change the still dominant dissemination (or "business") model, whose inadequacy is now widely recognized among the scientific community (but not by the shareholders, of course). So, I think that nobody can honestly state either #1 or #2 above as is. But one could say that: - the scholarly publication world is due (and has begun) to change in a profound way; - that nobody knows exactly what this change will be, or what role Green OA will play in it; - that Green OA is a legitimate demand, made in the public interest by (among others) publicly paid and funded researchers giving, as authors and reviewers, their works and their time for free; - that those responsible for public policy (and use of taxpayers' money) are expected to put the public interest above that of private entities. Marc Couture _______________________________________________ GOAL mailing list GOAL@eprints.org http://mailman.ecs.soton.ac.uk/mailman/listinfo/goal
