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Is the Maduro government going to fall, Michael? he seems to be trapped half way to the revolution and surrounded by enemies who see compromise for weakness. I am all for broad coalitions etc, a la Chavez, but the Right seem to want to call a ruthless Leninism into being. we had Allende and they had Pinochet. comradely Gary On Wed, Apr 19, 2017 at 10:14 AM, Michael Lebowitz via Marxism < marxism@lists.csbs.utah.edu> wrote: > ******************** POSTING RULES & NOTES ******************** > #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. > #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. > #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. > ***************************************************************** > > > > Sent from my iPhone > > Begin forwarded message: > > > From: "Steve Ellner" <sellne...@gmail.com> > > Date: April 18, 2017 at 2:56:11 PM PDT > > To: "Jesus Rodriguez Espinoza" <jreapor...@gmail.com>, Jesús > Rodríguez-Espinoza <jesus.rodriguez.espin...@gmail.com>, "Joelle Fishman" > <joelle.fish...@pobox.com>, "John Hammond" <jhamm...@hunter.cuny.edu>, > "John Minns" <john.mi...@anu.edu.au>, "Jose Gregorio Tovar" < > tovar...@gmail.com>, "Joshua Frank" <joshuafran...@gmail.com>, "Joshua > Frens-String" <jfstr...@gmail.com>, "Juan Grigera" <j.grig...@ucl.ac.uk>, > "julia Buxton" <j.d.bux...@bradford.ac.uk>, "julia Buxton" < > juliadbux...@yahoo.co.uk>, "Julio Escalona" <julio.escalon...@yahoo.com>, > "June Erlick" <jerl...@fas.harvard.edu>, "Justin Delacour" < > justin.delac...@yahoo.com>, "Keane Bhatt" <keane.l.bh...@gmail.com>, > "Kevin Young" <kyoung1...@gmail.com>, "Kim Scipes" < > kimsci...@earthlink.net>, "Lee Sustar" <lsus...@ameritech.net>, "Leo > Panitch" <lpani...@yorku.ca>, "leonardo bracamonte" < > lebracamo...@gmail.com>, "Lucas Alvarez" <lalvarez...@gmail.com>, "Lucas > Koerner" <lmkoerne...@gmail.com>, "Luis Alberto Andarcia" < > luisandar...@yahoo.com>, "Luis Angosto Ferrandez" <luis.angosto-ferrandez@ > sydney.edu.au>, "Luis Ricardo Davila" <lrdavil...@hotmail.com>, "Magda > Andarcia" <magda_luisa2...@hotmail.com>, "Manuel Anselmi" < > anselmiman...@gmail.com>, "Marc Becker" <marcbeck...@gmail.com>, "Marc > Becker" <m...@yachana.org>, "Maria Riera" <nenarier...@gmail.com>, > "Mariano Feliz" <marianfe...@gmail.com>, "Mario Ayala" < > marioayal...@yahoo.com.ar>, "Mark Weisbrot" <weisb...@cepr.net>, "Maxwell > Cameron" <came...@politics.ubc.ca>, "Meredith Dodge" <mdo...@zianet.com>, > "Michael Albert" <sy...@zmag.org>, "Michael Lebowitz" <mlebo...@sfu.ca>, > "Michael Lebowitz" <mlebo...@gmail.com>, "Nancy Postero" < > npost...@ucsd.edu>, "Naomi Schiller" <nschil...@brooklyn.cuny.edu>, > "Pablo Morales" <llpmmorale...@gmail.com>, "Pablo Navarrete" < > pa...@alborada.net>, "Pablo Pozzi" <pablo.po...@yahoo.com.ar>, "Pascal > Lupien" <plup...@uoguelph.ca>, "Patrick Clark" <patrickclark1...@gmail.com>, > "Peter Ranis" <pra...@york.cuny.edu>, "Peter Roman" < > pro...@hostos.cuny.edu>, "Peter Winn" <pwi...@gmail.com>, "Ralph Newmark" > <r.newm...@latrobe.edu.au>, "Renaud Lambert" < > renaud.lamb...@mondediplo.com>, "Richard Hillman" < > rhillm...@tampabay.rr.com>, "Robert Austin" <rwausti...@gmail.com>, > "Rosalind Bresnahan" <rosalind...@gmail.com>, "Sara Motta" < > sara.c.mo...@newcastle.edu.au>, "Stephany Tovar" < > stephanytova...@hotmail.com>, "Sujatha Fernandes" <sujat...@yahoo.com>, > "Susan Spronk" <susan.spr...@uottawa.ca>, "T.M. Scruggs" < > tm-scru...@uiowa.edu>, "Teresa Meade" <mea...@union.edu>, "Tom Chodor" < > tom.cho...@monash.edu>, "Victor Hugo" <vhmaj...@gmail.com>, "Victor > Wallis" <zend...@aol.com>, "Walter Lippmann" <walte...@earthlink.net>, > "William Robinson" <w.i.robins...@gmail.com>, "Zuleika Arashiro" < > zuleika.arash...@gmail.com> > > Subject: Some thoughts on tomorrow's protests > > > > > > WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION PROTESTS REACH DOWNTOWN > CARACAS? > >> > >> All the opposition marches in April called by Henrique Capriles and > other Venezuelan leaders of the MUD have sought to reach downtown Caracas. > The ostensible goal is to present a petition to the Defensoria del Pueblo. > In a normal situation, such a mobilization would certainly be legitimate. > But opposition leaders fully realize that the government will not allow for > the protesters to march from the wealthy eastern part of Caracas to the > downtown area. There are echoes of the April 11, 2002 march that led into > the coup against President Chávez, when the opposition newspaper El > Nacional published the large banner headline “The Final Battle in > Miraflores,” encouraging people that day to march to the presidential > palace. > >> > >> Let us assume that the Maduro government, acting in good faith, were to > allow the opposition protesters to march to the center of Caracas. Such a > scenario would go something like this: > >> > >> Scenario one: The Maduro government meets with opposition leaders and > grants them permission to march to the center of Caracas. The opposition > agrees to limit the march to 35,000 people and to end the protest in the > late afternoon. > >> > >> Scenario two: Peaceful march to the center of Caracas. Everything goes > according to plan. > >> > >> Scenario three: Opposition leaders such as Freddy Guervara (as he has > said in the past) announces that the opposition will remain in the center > of Caracas until their demands are met. The less extremist leaders such as > Capriles now call on their followers to join the protest and people come in > from the eastern part of Caracas, from the eastern part of Venezuela and > from the west as far away as Táchira, Mérida and Maracaibo. There are now > 750,000 protesters in the center of Caracas. > >> > >> Scenario four: At nighttime, the guarimba brigades, which during the > 2014 protests were responsible for widespread destruction and violence and > have acted in a similar way in recent days, go on a rampage and clash with > national guardsmen and police. > >> > >> Scenario five: CNN and other international news outlets juxtapose the > confrontation of the guarimba brigades with security forces, on the one > hand, and the peaceful protesters, on the other, thus leaving the > impression that the government is using random force against peaceful > protesters (April 11, 2002 anyone?). > >> > >> Scenario six: At this point Maduro may see the handwriting on the wall > in which case he resigns. If he doesn’t, we can all imagine scenarios > seven, eight and nine. > >> > >> from my blog http://steveellnersblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/what- > would-happen-if-venezuelan.html > >> > >> > > > > > _________________________________________________________ > Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm > Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/gary. > maclennan1%40gmail.com _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
