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Hi Gary,
I've been away from vzla for a while now and am restricted to what
I get from aporrea, venezuelanalyis, what marta watches on telesur,
globovision and vtv plus letters we receive from friends there.
Certainly, the situation is grim there-- not impossible for a
revolutionary government with Chavez's periodic audacity-- but the
current government has certainly been stalled [presumably because of
competing agendas and visions]. It occasionally takes important steps
[like the move to local food distribution, the CLACs], and the response
this week looks critical.
Steve Ellner knows well what is happening, and I read his message in
relation to tomorrow's opposition mobilisation [which I posted earlier]
as saying, 'no pasaran'. Maduro's call for the 'red tide' vs the
opposition march tomorrow says the same, and the focus on arming the
militias [which should have been done already] points to the longer
struggle. Years ago, Marx said that slaveholders' revolts put the sword
in the hands of the social revolution. Let's hope.
in solidarity,
michael
On 4/18/2017 5:43 PM, Gary MacLennan wrote:
Is the Maduro government going to fall, Michael? he seems to be
trapped half way to the revolution and surrounded by enemies who see
compromise for weakness. I am all for broad coalitions etc, a la
Chavez, but the Right seem to want to call a ruthless Leninism into
being. we had Allende and they had Pinochet.
comradely
Gary
On Wed, Apr 19, 2017 at 10:14 AM, Michael Lebowitz via Marxism
<marxism@lists.csbs.utah.edu <mailto:marxism@lists.csbs.utah.edu>> wrote:
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Sent from my iPhone
Begin forwarded message:
> From: "Steve Ellner" <sellne...@gmail.com
<mailto:sellne...@gmail.com>>
> Date: April 18, 2017 at 2:56:11 PM PDT
> To: "Jesus Rodriguez Espinoza" <jreapor...@gmail.com
<mailto:jreapor...@gmail.com>>, Jesús Rodríguez-Espinoza
<jesus.rodriguez.espin...@gmail.com
<mailto:jesus.rodriguez.espin...@gmail.com>>, "Joelle Fishman"
<joelle.fish...@pobox.com <mailto:joelle.fish...@pobox.com>>,
"John Hammond" <jhamm...@hunter.cuny.edu
<mailto:jhamm...@hunter.cuny.edu>>, "John Minns"
<john.mi...@anu.edu.au <mailto:john.mi...@anu.edu.au>>, "Jose
Gregorio Tovar" <tovar...@gmail.com <mailto:tovar...@gmail.com>>,
"Joshua Frank" <joshuafran...@gmail.com
<mailto:joshuafran...@gmail.com>>, "Joshua Frens-String"
<jfstr...@gmail.com <mailto:jfstr...@gmail.com>>, "Juan Grigera"
<j.grig...@ucl.ac.uk <mailto:j.grig...@ucl.ac.uk>>, "julia Buxton"
<j.d.bux...@bradford.ac.uk <mailto:j.d.bux...@bradford.ac.uk>>,
"julia Buxton" <juliadbux...@yahoo.co.uk
<mailto:juliadbux...@yahoo.co.uk>>, "Julio Escalona"
<julio.escalon...@yahoo.com <mailto:julio.escalon...@yahoo.com>>,
"June Erlick" <jerl...@fas.harvard.edu
<mailto:jerl...@fas.harvard.edu>>, "Justin Delacour"
<justin.delac...@yahoo.com <mailto:justin.delac...@yahoo.com>>,
"Keane Bhatt" <keane.l.bh...@gmail.com
<mailto:keane.l.bh...@gmail.com>>, "Kevin Young"
<kyoung1...@gmail.com <mailto:kyoung1...@gmail.com>>, "Kim Scipes"
<kimsci...@earthlink.net <mailto:kimsci...@earthlink.net>>, "Lee
Sustar" <lsus...@ameritech.net <mailto:lsus...@ameritech.net>>,
"Leo Panitch" <lpani...@yorku.ca <mailto:lpani...@yorku.ca>>,
"leonardo bracamonte" <lebracamo...@gmail.com
<mailto:lebracamo...@gmail.com>>, "Lucas Alvarez"
<lalvarez...@gmail.com <mailto:lalvarez...@gmail.com>>, "Lucas
Koerner" <lmkoerne...@gmail.com <mailto:lmkoerne...@gmail.com>>,
"Luis Alberto Andarcia" <luisandar...@yahoo.com
<mailto:luisandar...@yahoo.com>>, "Luis Angosto Ferrandez"
<luis.angosto-ferran...@sydney.edu.au
<mailto:luis.angosto-ferran...@sydney.edu.au>>, "Luis Ricardo
Davila" <lrdavil...@hotmail.com <mailto:lrdavil...@hotmail.com>>,
"Magda Andarcia" <magda_luisa2...@hotmail.com
<mailto:magda_luisa2...@hotmail.com>>, "Manuel Anselmi"
<anselmiman...@gmail.com <mailto:anselmiman...@gmail.com>>, "Marc
Becker" <marcbeck...@gmail.com <mailto:marcbeck...@gmail.com>>,
"Marc Becker" <m...@yachana.org <mailto:m...@yachana.org>>, "Maria
Riera" <nenarier...@gmail.com <mailto:nenarier...@gmail.com>>,
"Mariano Feliz" <marianfe...@gmail.com
<mailto:marianfe...@gmail.com>>, "Mario Ayala"
<marioayal...@yahoo.com.ar <mailto:marioayal...@yahoo.com.ar>>,
"Mark Weisbrot" <weisb...@cepr.net <mailto:weisb...@cepr.net>>,
"Maxwell Cameron" <came...@politics.ubc.ca
<mailto:came...@politics.ubc.ca>>, "Meredith Dodge"
<mdo...@zianet.com <mailto:mdo...@zianet.com>>, "Michael Albert"
<sy...@zmag.org <mailto:sy...@zmag.org>>, "Michael Lebowitz"
<mlebo...@sfu.ca <mailto:mlebo...@sfu.ca>>, "Michael Lebowitz"
<mlebo...@gmail.com <mailto:mlebo...@gmail.com>>, "Nancy Postero"
<npost...@ucsd.edu <mailto:npost...@ucsd.edu>>, "Naomi Schiller"
<nschil...@brooklyn.cuny.edu
<mailto:nschil...@brooklyn.cuny.edu>>, "Pablo Morales"
<llpmmorale...@gmail.com <mailto:llpmmorale...@gmail.com>>, "Pablo
Navarrete" <pa...@alborada.net <mailto:pa...@alborada.net>>,
"Pablo Pozzi" <pablo.po...@yahoo.com.ar
<mailto:pablo.po...@yahoo.com.ar>>, "Pascal Lupien"
<plup...@uoguelph.ca <mailto:plup...@uoguelph.ca>>, "Patrick
Clark" <patrickclark1...@gmail.com
<mailto:patrickclark1...@gmail.com>>, "Peter Ranis"
<pra...@york.cuny.edu <mailto:pra...@york.cuny.edu>>, "Peter
Roman" <pro...@hostos.cuny.edu <mailto:pro...@hostos.cuny.edu>>,
"Peter Winn" <pwi...@gmail.com <mailto:pwi...@gmail.com>>, "Ralph
Newmark" <r.newm...@latrobe.edu.au
<mailto:r.newm...@latrobe.edu.au>>, "Renaud Lambert"
<renaud.lamb...@mondediplo.com
<mailto:renaud.lamb...@mondediplo.com>>, "Richard Hillman"
<rhillm...@tampabay.rr.com <mailto:rhillm...@tampabay.rr.com>>,
"Robert Austin" <rwausti...@gmail.com
<mailto:rwausti...@gmail.com>>, "Rosalind Bresnahan"
<rosalind...@gmail.com <mailto:rosalind...@gmail.com>>, "Sara
Motta" <sara.c.mo...@newcastle.edu.au
<mailto:sara.c.mo...@newcastle.edu.au>>, "Stephany Tovar"
<stephanytova...@hotmail.com
<mailto:stephanytova...@hotmail.com>>, "Sujatha Fernandes"
<sujat...@yahoo.com <mailto:sujat...@yahoo.com>>, "Susan Spronk"
<susan.spr...@uottawa.ca>, "T.M. Scruggs" <tm-scru...@uiowa.edu
<mailto:tm-scru...@uiowa.edu>>, "Teresa Meade" <mea...@union.edu
<mailto:mea...@union.edu>>, "Tom Chodor" <tom.cho...@monash.edu
<mailto:tom.cho...@monash.edu>>, "Victor Hugo" <vhmaj...@gmail.com
<mailto:vhmaj...@gmail.com>>, "Victor Wallis" <zend...@aol.com
<mailto:zend...@aol.com>>, "Walter Lippmann"
<walte...@earthlink.net <mailto:walte...@earthlink.net>>, "William
Robinson" <w.i.robins...@gmail.com
<mailto:w.i.robins...@gmail.com>>, "Zuleika Arashiro"
<zuleika.arash...@gmail.com <mailto:zuleika.arash...@gmail.com>>
> Subject: Some thoughts on tomorrow's protests
>
>
> WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION PROTESTS REACH
DOWNTOWN CARACAS?
>>
>> All the opposition marches in April called by Henrique Capriles
and other Venezuelan leaders of the MUD have sought to reach
downtown Caracas. The ostensible goal is to present a petition to
the Defensoria del Pueblo. In a normal situation, such a
mobilization would certainly be legitimate. But opposition leaders
fully realize that the government will not allow for the
protesters to march from the wealthy eastern part of Caracas to
the downtown area. There are echoes of the April 11, 2002 march
that led into the coup against President Chávez, when the
opposition newspaper El Nacional published the large banner
headline “The Final Battle in Miraflores,” encouraging people that
day to march to the presidential palace.
>>
>> Let us assume that the Maduro government, acting in good faith,
were to allow the opposition protesters to march to the center of
Caracas. Such a scenario would go something like this:
>>
>> Scenario one: The Maduro government meets with opposition
leaders and grants them permission to march to the center of
Caracas. The opposition agrees to limit the march to 35,000 people
and to end the protest in the late afternoon.
>>
>> Scenario two: Peaceful march to the center of Caracas.
Everything goes according to plan.
>>
>> Scenario three: Opposition leaders such as Freddy Guervara (as
he has said in the past) announces that the opposition will remain
in the center of Caracas until their demands are met. The less
extremist leaders such as Capriles now call on their followers to
join the protest and people come in from the eastern part of
Caracas, from the eastern part of Venezuela and from the west as
far away as Táchira, Mérida and Maracaibo. There are now 750,000
protesters in the center of Caracas.
>>
>> Scenario four: At nighttime, the guarimba brigades, which
during the 2014 protests were responsible for widespread
destruction and violence and have acted in a similar way in recent
days, go on a rampage and clash with national guardsmen and police.
>>
>> Scenario five: CNN and other international news outlets
juxtapose the confrontation of the guarimba brigades with security
forces, on the one hand, and the peaceful protesters, on the
other, thus leaving the impression that the government is using
random force against peaceful protesters (April 11, 2002 anyone?).
>>
>> Scenario six: At this point Maduro may see the handwriting on
the wall in which case he resigns. If he doesn’t, we can all
imagine scenarios seven, eight and nine.
>>
>> from my blog
http://steveellnersblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/what-would-happen-if-venezuelan.html
<http://steveellnersblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/what-would-happen-if-venezuelan.html>
>>
>>
>
>
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---------------------
Michael A. Lebowitz
Professor Emeritus
Economics Department
Simon Fraser University
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