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This is my recent comment on Facebook regarding YouGov's seat-based modelling https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/. Sinn Fein staffer Duroyan Fertl replied "not going to happen, especially not in those circumstances" to my last suggestion. This is getting *very* interesting. In YouGov's new seat-based model the Tory overall lead over Labour is down to 3 points (their latest conventional poll gives the same), and their seat estimate gives the Tories a minority (311, a majority being 326), while Labour+SNP+Greens+Plaid+Lib Dems would be a (bare) majority, as probably would a much better combo of Labour+SNP+Greens+Plaid+Sinn Fein (assuming the latter win at least 6 out of 18 Irish seats, as the survey doesn't included occupied Ireland, and the big assumption that they might give up their abstentionism to join a relatively left UK government). On Thu, Jun 1, 2017 at 11:51 AM, Gary MacLennan via Marxism < marxism@lists.csbs.utah.edu> wrote: > ******************** POSTING RULES & NOTES ******************** > #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. > #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. > #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. > ***************************************************************** > > It is foolish to believe the polls too much in a first past the post > context such as the UK, but as the gap between the Labour Party and the > Tories seems to narrow dramatically it is hard to resist the delirium. > > My sources are Aaron Bastani on twitter as listers would know and the group > that he is linked to George Galloway, Richard Seymour, James Butler, & Owen > Jones. My absolute joy though is to tune into the Artist Taxi Driver > youtube channel (Chunky Mark) and listen to his latest rant. > > The accent is strongly London and that might cause difficulties but stay > with him and just go with the passion. The link is athttps:// > www.youtube.com/user/chunkymark. > > The big question now is can Corbyn do it? Can he win? Personally I doubt > it but i am very aware that just a few weeks ago the question was "Can > Corbyn prevent a Tory landslide that would wipe out Labour?" > > The Tories have campaigned badly, like really badly. They also have a deep > structural problem, that has been partly obscured by the Brexit from the > EU. The Tory project is in trouble. "Neoliberalism is dying in the night. > ring out wild bells and let it die" I say and millions are beginning to say > the same thing. > > Also in trouble are the Labour Moderates - those 200 odd ass wipes who > opposed Corbyn with maximum treachery. They allowed Corbyn to have a left > wing manifesto in order, I think, to exorcise finally the "poison" of > leftism. *BUT* the manifesto proved popular. And now there seems no way > back to Blairism and New Labour. > > Delightful times > > comradely > > Gary > _________________________________________________________ > Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm > Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/nick.j. > fredman%40gmail.com > _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
