Mark Snyder wrote: <snip> > It's one thing to assume that state employee wages won't rise, but that only > represents about 10% of the budget. It's quite another to assume that the > costs of the various other goods and services that are purchased by the > State of Minnesota will remain flat for the entire 2004-2005 biennium. > > If including inflation would only increase the shortfall to $400M, we'd > probably be OK since the reserves are set at around $600M. However, from > what I can recall, those who live in the real world have estimated that > including inflation could increase the shortfall to as much as $1 billion > (that would be based on an annual inflation rate of approximately 3.5% if > I'm remembering how to do the math correctly). > > So yes, it's quite likely that there will be a further need to balance the > state's checkbook and I'm sure it's also quite likely that Minneapolis will > take on on the chin yet again. >
Mark Anderson here: I don't know the details of the state budget. But I do know that 3.5% inflation is too high for 2003 and 2004. The CPI has an increase of about 1% for this year, and the guess from most economists is for a similar increase next year (see today's (Sunday) Strib for a selection of MN economist's predictions). Maybe the Republican forecast is too low, but any forecast using 3.5% is too high. Mark V Anderson Bancroft REMINDERS: 1. Think a member has violated the rules? Email the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract ________________________________ Minneapolis Issues Forum - A City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
