Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

[Marcus Daniels]

Depression, bipolar disorder, and OCD are examples of the kind of mental 
illnesses I had in mind.  They make life hard for those that have it.  More 
downsides than upsides.   As for sociopathy, for most people, just being too 
damned irritating will eventually create a cost for them too.   Others become 
the president, at least for a while.

From: Friam  on behalf of Steven A Smith 

Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Date: Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 12:47 PM
To: "friam@redfish.com" 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)


It is to this point that I prefer to think in terms of "neurodiverse" rather 
than "mentally ill".   Your definitions here respond more to my idea of 
"sociopathy".I don't think of sociopaths as being mentally ill, just not 
good members of the society they find themselves in.   Most *L*ibertarians I 
know seem to be on the verge of sociopathy as a matter of honor.

There has been a move afoot to recognize the selection value of neurodiversity 
in a group and to de-stigmatize or de-pathologize what was previously 
considered dis-ease or dys-function.

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/23/books/review/neurotribes-by-steve-silberman.html
On 1/2/19 12:33 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
Nick writes:

“A mentally ill individual is one whose behavior is so annoying that other 
individuals are willing to cooperate to put him away?”

Sure, in that case the “mentally ill individual” may have failed to connect 
their actions with the consequences.   Or maybe they wanted lodging in a 
psychiatric facility on the family dime -- probably a bad call if your name was 
Rosemary Kennedy.

Marcus

From: Friam <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com> on 
behalf of Nick Thompson 
<mailto:nickthomp...@earthlink.net>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
<mailto:friam@redfish.com>
Date: Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 12:15 PM
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' 
<mailto:friam@redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

Marcus,

Forgive me if I am entering this party late, but what exactly means “mental 
illness”

I would expect that mental illness is massively underdiagnosed in this country, 
and especially in the blue collar mid-west where it is considered a taboo topic 
and people have not had adequate health insurance to use to diagnose it.

So, is a young person who hears voices, but who integrates those voices into a 
well-organized and effective life mentally ill?  Is the homeless person who 
prefers to sleep on a subway grate than go into a shelter mentally ill? I had a 
colleague once who famously checked himself into a mental hospital making a 
vague claim to hearing voices and then, once on the ward, behaved absolutely as 
he would have otherwise.  His only aberrant behavior was that he constantly 
took notes.  Explaining that he was doing a study of the ward.  When, after a 
few weeks, he got bored of it and tried to check himself out, he could not get 
out!  He had to use his “fail-safe” (the chairman of his department, if I 
remember) to extract himself.  Was he mentally ill?

Is trump mentally Ill?  WAS he mentally ill before he became president?  Or was 
he promoted to his level of mental illness. (CF, Peter 
Principle.)<https://www.amazon.co.uk/Peter-Principle-Things-Always-Wrong/dp/0285631764>
  (In a political hierarchy a politician will rise to his level of insanity.) 
(cf, All the Kings 
Men<https://www.amazon.com/s?ie=UTF8=All%20the%20kings%20men=blended_code=qs=Mozilla-search=mozilla-20>,
 a fabulous novel, by the way).  Not clear to me how a libertarian of any 
stripe can allow the concept of mental illness into a conversation.  A mentally 
ill individual is one whose behavior is so annoying that other individuals are 
willing to cooperate to put him away?

Nick

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2019 11:44 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
<mailto:friam@redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

Robert writes:

“Estimates vary by source, but fraction of opioid deaths that are suicide is 
around 20-30%”

What I’d really like to know is how the fraction of opioid deaths occur with 
individuals that have no historical sign of mental illness at all, and would be 
described by their friends and colleagues as effective and engaged prior to 
their initial prescription.   I would expect that mental illness is massively 
underdiagnosed in this country, and especially in the blue collar mid-west 
where it is considered a taboo topic and people have not had adequate health 
insurance to use to diagnose it.I 

Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

[Steven A Smith]

It is to this point that I prefer to think in terms of "neurodiverse" 
rather than "mentally ill".   Your definitions here respond more to my 
idea of "sociopathy".    I don't think of sociopaths as being mentally 
ill, just not good members of the society they find themselves in.   
Most *L*ibertarians I know seem to be on the verge of sociopathy as a 
matter of honor.


There has been a move afoot to recognize the selection value of 
neurodiversity in a group and to de-stigmatize or de-pathologize what 
was previously considered dis-ease or dys-function.


https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/23/books/review/neurotribes-by-steve-silberman.html

On 1/2/19 12:33 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:


Nick writes:

“A mentally ill individual is one whose behavior is so annoying that 
other individuals are willing to cooperate to put him away?”


Sure, in that case the “mentally ill individual” may have failed to 
connect their actions with the consequences.   Or maybe they wanted 
lodging in a psychiatric facility on the family dime -- probably a bad 
call if your name was Rosemary Kennedy.


Marcus

*From: *Friam  on behalf of Nick Thompson 

*Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 


*Date: *Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 12:15 PM
*To: *'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' 


*Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

Marcus,

Forgive me if I am entering this party late, but what exactly means 
“mental illness”


*/I would expect that mental illness is massively underdiagnosed in 
this country, and especially in the blue collar mid-west where it is 
considered a taboo topic and people have not had adequate health 
insurance to use to diagnose it. /*


So, is a young person who hears voices, but who integrates those 
voices into a well-organized and effective life mentally ill?  Is the 
homeless person who prefers to sleep on a subway grate than go into a 
shelter mentally ill? I had a colleague once who famously checked 
himself into a mental hospital making a vague claim to hearing voices 
and then, once on the ward, behaved absolutely as he would have 
otherwise.  His only aberrant behavior was that he constantly took 
notes.  Explaining that he was doing a study of the ward.  When, after 
a few weeks, he got bored of it and tried to check himself out, he 
could not get out!  He had to use his “fail-safe” (the chairman of his 
department, if I remember) to extract himself.  Was he mentally ill?


Is trump mentally Ill?  WAS he mentally ill before he became 
president?  Or was he promoted to his level of mental illness. (CF, 
Peter Principle.) 
<https://www.amazon.co.uk/Peter-Principle-Things-Always-Wrong/dp/0285631764> 
 (In a political hierarchy a politician will rise to his level of 
insanity.) (cf, /All the Kings Men 
<https://www.amazon.com/s?ie=UTF8=All%20the%20kings%20men=blended_code=qs=Mozilla-search=mozilla-20>/, 
a fabulous novel, by the way).  Not clear to me how a libertarian of 
any stripe can allow the concept of mental illness into a 
conversation.  A mentally ill individual is one whose behavior is so 
annoying that other individuals are willing to cooperate to put him away?


Nick

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

*From:* Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Marcus 
Daniels

*Sent:* Wednesday, January 02, 2019 11:44 AM
*To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 


*Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

Robert writes:

“Estimates vary by source, but fraction of opioid deaths that are 
suicide is around 20-30%”


What I’d really like to know is how the fraction of opioid deaths 
occur with individuals that have no historical sign of mental illness 
at all, and would be described by their friends and colleagues as 
effective and engaged prior to their initial prescription.   I would 
expect that mental illness is massively underdiagnosed in this 
country, and especially in the blue collar mid-west where it is 
considered a taboo topic and people have not had adequate health 
insurance to use to diagnose it.    I strongly suspect a structural 
cause of all this is the idea that free will exists, combined with the 
inevitable evolution of the economy toward more automation.   Millions 
of people, maybe hundreds of millions of people, have what amounts to 
a mistaken view of the world.   Similar arguments apply to the ongoing 
outbursts of gun homicide (instead of suicide).


Marcus



FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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FRIAM-COMIC http://fr

Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

[Marcus Daniels]

Nick writes:

“A mentally ill individual is one whose behavior is so annoying that other 
individuals are willing to cooperate to put him away?”

Sure, in that case the “mentally ill individual” may have failed to connect 
their actions with the consequences.   Or maybe they wanted lodging in a 
psychiatric facility on the family dime -- probably a bad call if your name was 
Rosemary Kennedy.

Marcus

From: Friam  on behalf of Nick Thompson 

Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Date: Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 12:15 PM
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

Marcus,

Forgive me if I am entering this party late, but what exactly means “mental 
illness”

I would expect that mental illness is massively underdiagnosed in this country, 
and especially in the blue collar mid-west where it is considered a taboo topic 
and people have not had adequate health insurance to use to diagnose it.

So, is a young person who hears voices, but who integrates those voices into a 
well-organized and effective life mentally ill?  Is the homeless person who 
prefers to sleep on a subway grate than go into a shelter mentally ill? I had a 
colleague once who famously checked himself into a mental hospital making a 
vague claim to hearing voices and then, once on the ward, behaved absolutely as 
he would have otherwise.  His only aberrant behavior was that he constantly 
took notes.  Explaining that he was doing a study of the ward.  When, after a 
few weeks, he got bored of it and tried to check himself out, he could not get 
out!  He had to use his “fail-safe” (the chairman of his department, if I 
remember) to extract himself.  Was he mentally ill?

Is trump mentally Ill?  WAS he mentally ill before he became president?  Or was 
he promoted to his level of mental illness. (CF, Peter 
Principle.)<https://www.amazon.co.uk/Peter-Principle-Things-Always-Wrong/dp/0285631764>
  (In a political hierarchy a politician will rise to his level of insanity.) 
(cf, All the Kings 
Men<https://www.amazon.com/s?ie=UTF8=All%20the%20kings%20men=blended_code=qs=Mozilla-search=mozilla-20>,
 a fabulous novel, by the way).  Not clear to me how a libertarian of any 
stripe can allow the concept of mental illness into a conversation.  A mentally 
ill individual is one whose behavior is so annoying that other individuals are 
willing to cooperate to put him away?

Nick

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2019 11:44 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

Robert writes:

“Estimates vary by source, but fraction of opioid deaths that are suicide is 
around 20-30%”

What I’d really like to know is how the fraction of opioid deaths occur with 
individuals that have no historical sign of mental illness at all, and would be 
described by their friends and colleagues as effective and engaged prior to 
their initial prescription.   I would expect that mental illness is massively 
underdiagnosed in this country, and especially in the blue collar mid-west 
where it is considered a taboo topic and people have not had adequate health 
insurance to use to diagnose it.I strongly suspect a structural cause of 
all this is the idea that free will exists, combined with the inevitable 
evolution of the economy toward more automation.   Millions of people, maybe 
hundreds of millions of people, have what amounts to a mistaken view of the 
world.   Similar arguments apply to the ongoing outbursts of gun homicide 
(instead of suicide).

Marcus

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

[Nick Thompson]

Marcus, 

 

Forgive me if I am entering this party late, but what exactly means “mental 
illness” 

 

I would expect that mental illness is massively underdiagnosed in this country, 
and especially in the blue collar mid-west where it is considered a taboo topic 
and people have not had adequate health insurance to use to diagnose it. 

 

So, is a young person who hears voices, but who integrates those voices into a 
well-organized and effective life mentally ill?  Is the homeless person who 
prefers to sleep on a subway grate than go into a shelter mentally ill? I had a 
colleague once who famously checked himself into a mental hospital making a 
vague claim to hearing voices and then, once on the ward, behaved absolutely as 
he would have otherwise.  His only aberrant behavior was that he constantly 
took notes.  Explaining that he was doing a study of the ward.  When, after a 
few weeks, he got bored of it and tried to check himself out, he could not get 
out!  He had to use his “fail-safe” (the chairman of his department, if I 
remember) to extract himself.  Was he mentally ill?  

 

Is trump mentally Ill?  WAS he mentally ill before he became president?  Or was 
he promoted to his level of mental illness. (CF, Peter Principle.) 
<https://www.amazon.co.uk/Peter-Principle-Things-Always-Wrong/dp/0285631764>   
(In a political hierarchy a politician will rise to his level of insanity.) 
(cf, All the Kings Men 
<https://www.amazon.com/s?ie=UTF8=All%20the%20kings%20men=blended_code=qs=Mozilla-search=mozilla-20>
 , a fabulous novel, by the way).  Not clear to me how a libertarian of any 
stripe can allow the concept of mental illness into a conversation.  A mentally 
ill individual is one whose behavior is so annoying that other individuals are 
willing to cooperate to put him away?  

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

 <http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/> 
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2019 11:44 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

 

Robert writes:

 

“Estimates vary by source, but fraction of opioid deaths that are suicide is 
around 20-30%”

 

What I’d really like to know is how the fraction of opioid deaths occur with 
individuals that have no historical sign of mental illness at all, and would be 
described by their friends and colleagues as effective and engaged prior to 
their initial prescription.   I would expect that mental illness is massively 
underdiagnosed in this country, and especially in the blue collar mid-west 
where it is considered a taboo topic and people have not had adequate health 
insurance to use to diagnose it.I strongly suspect a structural cause of 
all this is the idea that free will exists, combined with the inevitable 
evolution of the economy toward more automation.   Millions of people, maybe 
hundreds of millions of people, have what amounts to a mistaken view of the 
world.   Similar arguments apply to the ongoing outbursts of gun homicide 
(instead of suicide).  

 

Marcus


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

[Marcus Daniels]

Robert writes:

“Estimates vary by source, but fraction of opioid deaths that are suicide is 
around 20-30%”

What I’d really like to know is how the fraction of opioid deaths occur with 
individuals that have no historical sign of mental illness at all, and would be 
described by their friends and colleagues as effective and engaged prior to 
their initial prescription.   I would expect that mental illness is massively 
underdiagnosed in this country, and especially in the blue collar mid-west 
where it is considered a taboo topic and people have not had adequate health 
insurance to use to diagnose it.I strongly suspect a structural cause of 
all this is the idea that free will exists, combined with the inevitable 
evolution of the economy toward more automation.   Millions of people, maybe 
hundreds of millions of people, have what amounts to a mistaken view of the 
world.   Similar arguments apply to the ongoing outbursts of gun homicide 
(instead of suicide).

Marcus

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

[Robert Holmes]

"Dreamland" by Sam Quinones has a good description of the history of our
current epidemic. Highly recommended.

Estimates vary by source, but fraction of opioid deaths that are suicide is
around 20-30%

On Wed, Jan 2, 2019 at 11:01 AM Marcus Daniels  wrote:

>
> http://theconversation.com/suicide-nation-whats-behind-the-need-to-numb-and-to-seek-a-final-escape-98137
>
>
>
> “Americans stand out from people in other countries with respect to their
> focus on individualism. Americans believe that success is determined by our
> own control and that it is very important to work hard to get ahead in
> life. Perhaps it is this focus on our own achievements, successes and work
> culture that have created an environment that is no longer sustainable – it
> has become too stressful.”
>
>
>
> *Apoptosis <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apoptosis>* is the word that
> comes to mind.
>
>
>
> *From: *Friam  on behalf of Marcus Daniels <
> mar...@snoutfarm.com>
> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Date: *Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 10:45 AM
> *To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)
>
>
>
> Dumb question:   Is there anything behind this besides an burst of legal
> prescriptions that created a self-reinforcing trend?
>
> Or are people actually going crazy?
>
>
>
> *From: *Friam  on behalf of Robert Holmes <
> rob...@robertholmes.org>
> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Date: *Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 10:16 AM
> *To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject: *[FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)
>
>
>
> Early this week I came across a recent press release from NM Dept of
> Health: "Governor Martinez Announces Continued Improvement in Drug
> Overdose Death Rankings"
> <https://nmhealth.org/news/information/2018/12/?view=728>. I've been
> tinkering round with opioid statistics, so thought it might be worth fact
> checking the release. The results were… interesting. If nothing else
> they've shown me how difficult it must be to communicate public health
> statistics.
>
>
>
> So here are some of the key figures from the release:
>
>- New Mexico’s national ranking has improved from the second highest
>death drug overdose death rate in the United States in 2014 to 17th highest
>in 2017
>- New Mexico previously reported a 4 percent decline in death rates in
>2017 due to overdose of commonly prescribed opioids such as oxycodone
>compared to 2016. In addition, deaths due to heroin decreased by 9 percent
>and deaths due to synthetic opioids such as fentanyl decreased by 6 percent
>over the same time period.
>
> The first of these claims passed my sniff test: I know NM's ranking has
> been improving, even though individual counties rank the wort in the
> nation. And sure enough, if you pull the underlying CDC data
> <https://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd.html> you can confirm these exact numbers
> (ignoring DC).
>
>
>
> The second claim is the one that gave me pause. Those reductions in
> individual opioids look kinda high. Yes, NM's ranking is improving but it's
> because our rate is essentially stable while other states rocket past. And
> when I check the above CDC data, yes the reduction in death rate appears to
> be about 2%
>
>
>
> So there's the poser: if NM's reduction in opioid deaths (2016-2017) is
> 2%, how can this be consistent with individual opioid reductions of 9%
> (heroin), 4% (natural & semi synthetic, inc. oxycodone), and 6% (synthetic,
> inc. fentanyl)?
>
>
>
> —Robert
>
>
>
> P.S. I'll post my best guess later. Oh, and it's not that they omitted
> methadone: deaths due to that are down 19% in the same period.
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

[Marcus Daniels]

http://theconversation.com/suicide-nation-whats-behind-the-need-to-numb-and-to-seek-a-final-escape-98137

“Americans stand out from people in other countries with respect to their focus 
on individualism. Americans believe that success is determined by our own 
control and that it is very important to work hard to get ahead in life. 
Perhaps it is this focus on our own achievements, successes and work culture 
that have created an environment that is no longer sustainable – it has become 
too stressful.”

Apoptosis<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apoptosis> is the word that comes to 
mind.

From: Friam  on behalf of Marcus Daniels 

Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Date: Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 10:45 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

Dumb question:   Is there anything behind this besides an burst of legal 
prescriptions that created a self-reinforcing trend?
Or are people actually going crazy?

From: Friam  on behalf of Robert Holmes 

Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Date: Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 10:16 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

Early this week I came across a recent press release from NM Dept of Health: 
"Governor Martinez Announces Continued Improvement in Drug Overdose Death 
Rankings"<https://nmhealth.org/news/information/2018/12/?view=728>. I've been 
tinkering round with opioid statistics, so thought it might be worth fact 
checking the release. The results were… interesting. If nothing else they've 
shown me how difficult it must be to communicate public health statistics.

So here are some of the key figures from the release:

  *   New Mexico’s national ranking has improved from the second highest death 
drug overdose death rate in the United States in 2014 to 17th highest in 2017
  *   New Mexico previously reported a 4 percent decline in death rates in 2017 
due to overdose of commonly prescribed opioids such as oxycodone compared to 
2016. In addition, deaths due to heroin decreased by 9 percent and deaths due 
to synthetic opioids such as fentanyl decreased by 6 percent over the same time 
period.
The first of these claims passed my sniff test: I know NM's ranking has been 
improving, even though individual counties rank the wort in the nation. And 
sure enough, if you pull the underlying CDC 
data<https://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd.html> you can confirm these exact numbers 
(ignoring DC).

The second claim is the one that gave me pause. Those reductions in individual 
opioids look kinda high. Yes, NM's ranking is improving but it's because our 
rate is essentially stable while other states rocket past. And when I check the 
above CDC data, yes the reduction in death rate appears to be about 2%

So there's the poser: if NM's reduction in opioid deaths (2016-2017) is 2%, how 
can this be consistent with individual opioid reductions of 9% (heroin), 4% 
(natural & semi synthetic, inc. oxycodone), and 6% (synthetic, inc. fentanyl)?

—Robert

P.S. I'll post my best guess later. Oh, and it's not that they omitted 
methadone: deaths due to that are down 19% in the same period.

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

[Marcus Daniels]

Dumb question:   Is there anything behind this besides an burst of legal 
prescriptions that created a self-reinforcing trend?
Or are people actually going crazy?

From: Friam  on behalf of Robert Holmes 

Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Date: Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 10:16 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

Early this week I came across a recent press release from NM Dept of Health: 
"Governor Martinez Announces Continued Improvement in Drug Overdose Death 
Rankings". I've been 
tinkering round with opioid statistics, so thought it might be worth fact 
checking the release. The results were… interesting. If nothing else they've 
shown me how difficult it must be to communicate public health statistics.

So here are some of the key figures from the release:

  *   New Mexico’s national ranking has improved from the second highest death 
drug overdose death rate in the United States in 2014 to 17th highest in 2017
  *   New Mexico previously reported a 4 percent decline in death rates in 2017 
due to overdose of commonly prescribed opioids such as oxycodone compared to 
2016. In addition, deaths due to heroin decreased by 9 percent and deaths due 
to synthetic opioids such as fentanyl decreased by 6 percent over the same time 
period.
The first of these claims passed my sniff test: I know NM's ranking has been 
improving, even though individual counties rank the wort in the nation. And 
sure enough, if you pull the underlying CDC 
data you can confirm these exact numbers 
(ignoring DC).

The second claim is the one that gave me pause. Those reductions in individual 
opioids look kinda high. Yes, NM's ranking is improving but it's because our 
rate is essentially stable while other states rocket past. And when I check the 
above CDC data, yes the reduction in death rate appears to be about 2%

So there's the poser: if NM's reduction in opioid deaths (2016-2017) is 2%, how 
can this be consistent with individual opioid reductions of 9% (heroin), 4% 
(natural & semi synthetic, inc. oxycodone), and 6% (synthetic, inc. fentanyl)?

—Robert

P.S. I'll post my best guess later. Oh, and it's not that they omitted 
methadone: deaths due to that are down 19% in the same period.

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Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)

[Brent Auble]

I can come up with a couple of possibilities. First, that some of the opioid 
deaths are counted in other causes of death to get to the 2% number.  The 
second, is that there is another category of opioids beyond the "heroin", 
"natural & semi synthetic, inc. oxycodone", "synthetic, inc. fentanyl", and 
"methadone" buckets, where the decrease was less than 2% (i.e. an increase or a 
decrease between 0 and 2% but a high n).
Brent

  From: Robert Holmes 
 To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group  
 Sent: Wednesday, January 2, 2019 12:16 PM
 Subject: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard)
   
Early this week I came across a recent press release from NM Dept of Health: 
"Governor Martinez Announces Continued Improvement in Drug Overdose Death 
Rankings". I've been tinkering round with opioid statistics, so thought it 
might be worth fact checking the release. The results were… interesting. If 
nothing else they've shown me how difficult it must be to communicate public 
health statistics.

So here are some of the key figures from the release:   
   - New Mexico’s national ranking has improved from the second highest death 
drug overdose death rate in the United States in 2014 to 17th highest in 2017   

   - New Mexico previously reported a 4 percent decline in death rates in 2017 
due to overdose of commonly prescribed opioids such as oxycodone compared to 
2016. In addition, deaths due to heroin decreased by 9 percent and deaths due 
to synthetic opioids such as fentanyl decreased by 6 percent over the same time 
period.   

The first of these claims passed my sniff test: I know NM's ranking has been 
improving, even though individual counties rank the wort in the nation. And 
sure enough, if you pull the underlying CDC data you can confirm these exact 
numbers (ignoring DC).
The second claim is the one that gave me pause. Those reductions in individual 
opioids look kinda high. Yes, NM's ranking is improving but it's because our 
rate is essentially stable while other states rocket past. And when I check the 
above CDC data, yes the reduction in death rate appears to be about 2%
So there's the poser: if NM's reduction in opioid deaths (2016-2017) is 2%, how 
can this be consistent with individual opioid reductions of 9% (heroin), 4% 
(natural & semi synthetic, inc. oxycodone), and 6% (synthetic, inc. fentanyl)?
—Robert
P.S. I'll post my best guess later. Oh, and it's not that they omitted 
methadone: deaths due to that are down 19% in the same 
period.
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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