On Mon, 17 Feb 2003, Mike Deering wrote:
Based on available data how are we to calculate the doubling time extrapolation into
the future? On 1/6/2003 Stephen Reed writes. Progressing from -50 db HEC to 0 db
HEC in 22 years is equivalent to Moore's Law doubling every 16 months. [ 2^16.61 =
Mike,
Actually, Stephen's method
*is* pretty much a correct way of doing exponential curve fitting. It
assumes that the underlying curve is an exponential rather than some kind of
hyperexponential, though. Kurzweil's contention is that a
hyperexponential(an exponential with a slowly
Processing speed is a necessary but far from sufficient criterion of AGI design. The
software engineering aspect is going to be the bigger limitation by far.
It is common to speak of the brain as x neurons and Y synapses but the truth of it
is that there are layers of complexity beneath the
Processing speed is a necessary but far from sufficient criterion
of AGI design. The software engineering aspect is going to be
the bigger limitation by far.
Hmmm. I think the critical problem is neither processing speed, NOR
software engineering per se -- it's having a mind design that's
Faster computers make AI easier. They do not make Friendly AI easier in
the least. Once there's enough computing power around that someone could
create AI if they knew exactly what they were doing, Moore's Law is no
longer your friend.
--
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
Hmmm. I think the critical problem is neither processing speed, NOR
software engineering per se -- it's having a mind design that's correct in
all the details.
Or is that what you meant by software engineering? To me, software
engineering is about HOW you build it, not about WHAT you
It is obvious that no one on this list agrees with
me. This does not mean that I am obviously wrong. The division is
very simple.
My position: the doubling time has been reducing and
will continue to do so.
Their position: the doubling time is
constant.
This is not a question of
There
are two issues here...
1) I think therate of decreasetime of entry-level
computer price may be increasing ... i.e. in your terms "the doubling time has
been reducing". I think you're overestimating the rate of increase of the
rate of decrease, though...
2) I think you overestimate
It is obvious that no one on this list agrees with me. This does not mean =
that I am obviously wrong. The division is very simple.
My position: the doubling time has been reducing and will continue to do s=
o.
Their position: the doubling time is constant.
It is incredibly unlikely
I know this topic is already beaten to death in previous discussions, but I'll throw
out one more point after reading that we may already have the equivalent power of some
3000 minds in raw CPU available worldwide.
The aggregate neural mass of the world's population of insects and animals are
On Mon, 17 Feb 2003, Mike Deering wrote:
It is obvious that no one on this list agrees with me. This does not mean that I am
obviously wrong. The division is very simple.
My position: the doubling time has been reducing and will continue to do so.
Ray Kurzweil agrees with you and has data
Also, integrating the power of multiple units is another hard
problem. I don't recall the figure, but the vast majority of the
brain is interconnective tissue. Networking hardware scales
nonlinearly with the number of processing units. Even if you
had sole dominion of those millions of
On Mon, 17 Feb 2003, Brad Wyble wrote:
Also, integrating the power of multiple units is another hard problem. I don't
recall the figure, but the vast majority of the brain is interconnective tissue.
Networking hardware scales nonlinearly with the number of processing units. Even if
you
entry level computers are now game-consoles and mobile-phones with fast chips for speech and games.
i see 5 chip/cpu-types:
1. classical cpus
2. cell and XXP
3. special vision and grafic chips
4. networking chips
5. memory with additional processing
only 1. and 5. are increasing slowly, but
Stephen Reed said:
Suppose that 30-50 thousand state of the art computers are equivalent
to the brain's processing power (using Moravec's assumptions). If
global desktop computer system sales are in the neighborhood of 130
million units, then we have the computer processing equivalent of
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