Re: [LEAPSECS] prep for WRC 23

2023-12-25 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2023-12-22 22:35, Seaman, Robert Lewis - (rseaman) wrote:

E pur si muove


   Natura non facit saltus -- why should UTC?


UTC may no longer serve as a kind of solar time (after 2026 or 2035, or 
somebody said 2040 the other day), but civil time will continue to have 
engineering requirements tracing to both solar and atomic time scales.



   As far as required by local civil time scales, continuous UTC can 
stand for solar

   time (UT1 up to 15 min) for several centuries.

   Current positioning applications on the surface of the Earth cannot 
be performed
   without knowledge of UT1 up several milliseconds. These applications 
work in
   wrist watches today and they do not need nor exploit the leap 
seconds of UTC.


   What type of engineering requirements can be satisfied with the 
current UTC with
   leap seconds that fail when UTC becomes continuous? The Russians 
have required

   more time for updates in satellite software, they have not said that it
   cannot be done.

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] prep for WRC 23

2023-12-23 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2023-12-21 18:22, Poul-Henning Kamp wrote:


My Tl;dr version of the resolution is:



. Please keep DUT1 less than 100 seconds.



   I do not read that from the text. The original [page 399] says:

   "  recognizing
  .
  k) that the maximum value for the difference between UT1 and UTC 
should be no less
  than 100 seconds, taking into account the constraints of the 
technological systems

  expected to be used to disseminate this value,  "

    This seems to say that on the contrary, at least 3 decimal digits will
    be needed for the integral part of the approximation of |UT1 - UTC| in
    time signals that include an estimate of UT1 - UTC after 2035. Anyway,
    I do not think that the CIPM will recommend a maximal value of 100 s
    for |UT1 - UTC| because there is a slim chance that this will not be
    enough until 2135.

    On the other hand, ITU-R might come up with a scheme where the 
approximation
    of (UT1 - UTC) is only given modulo 100 s in radio signals, so that 
2 digits

    would suffice for the integral part.

    Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] prep for WRC 23

2023-12-21 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2023-11-26 06:59, Steve Allen wrote:


This week began the meeting of ITU-R WRC 23.



   ..and it ended on 2023-12-15. The ITU-R news channel
[https://www.itu.int/en/mediacentre/Pages/PR-2023-12-15-WRC23-closing-ceremony.aspx]
   mentions a "key outcome"of WRC23:

 " ∙ Endorsement of the decision by the International Bureau of 
Weights and Measures
 (BIPM) to adopt Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) as the de 
facto time standard by
 2035, with the possibility to extend the deadline to 2040 in 
cases where existing

 equipment cannot be replaced earlier. "

   It is unclear what this is intended to mean: endorsement of the CGPM 
(not BIPM)

   decision implies that UTC will be continuous (not "de facto standard")
   from 2035 onward, so what "deadline" may still be shifted to 2040?
   ITU-R continue their (and CCIR's) tradition of murky statements 
about UTC.


   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] prep for WRC 23

2023-12-14 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2023-11-26 06:59, Steve Allen wrote:


This week began the meeting of ITU-R WRC 23.



   After closure of work related to resolution 655 of WRC 2015
   at the World Radio Conference 2023 in Dubai, the BIPM has added
   the web page
   [https://www.bipm.org/en/-/2023-12-12-wrc-dubai]

   One particular technical aspect is mentioned on this page: some
   lead time is required to adapt the (few) radio time signals that
   disseminate the approximation DUT1 of UT1 - UTC to the larger
   range of |UT1 - UTC| that will be allowed after 2035.
   This is worded quite implicitly, so that one cannot be sure

   ∙ whether there will still be an official approximation of
 of UT1 - UTC after 2035, similar to the one currently
 produced by the IERS with Bulletin D;

   ∙ if, yes, what the resolution and the range of that
 approximation would be.

   The CIPM will certainly try to avoid to introduce an official
   approximation of UT1 - UTC with a resolution of whole seconds
   and whose values change only at the end of a UTC month.

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] prep for WRC 23

2023-11-27 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2023-11-26 17:38, Michael Deckers wrote:


online at [https://www.itu.int/oth/R0A0807/en]



   when he meant: nline at
[https://www.itu.int/pub/publications.aspx?lang=en=R-REP-TF.2511-2022]

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] prep for WRC 23

2023-11-27 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2023-11-26 06:59, Steve Allen wrote:


This week began the meeting of ITU-R WRC 23.  One preparation for this
meeting was a document issued early this year

The future of Coordinated Universal Time
https://www.itu.int/en/itunews/Documents/2023/2023-02/2023_ITUNews02-en.pdf

This looks at the use of time in several arenas, many of which would
like UTC to stop having leap seconds.  


   The result of resolution 655 of WRC 2015 is ITU-R document TF 2511-0,
   online at [https://www.itu.int/oth/R0A0807/en]. It gives an
   overview of how users of UTC are affected by the current (discontinuous)
   form of UTC and by the proposed continuous form; it was written before
   the CGPM decision of 2022 on the change in UTC.


  Many also allow that keeping
agreement with the earth in the long run is necessary, and that they
have no idea how to do that.
A working group of the CCTF has since been charged with developing 
(among other, more important things) a proposal for measures to 
constrain |UT1 - UTC| after the new bound is reached. Since such 
measures would only apply in over 100 years, when the requirements for a 
reference time scale cannot reliably be predicted, anything beyond a 
necessarily incomplete list of possibilities (a discontinuous step, 
change in the rate d(UTC)/d(TT), using predictions of UT1 - UTC, etc) 
would be wasted effort.


Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] negative leap second milestone

2023-08-29 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2023-08-26 17:58, John Sauter via LEAPSECS wrote:


According to the IERS, today, for the first time since the
establishment of the modern definition of UTC in 1973, the quantity
UT1-UTC crosses zero while increasing.  If this continues we will have
a negative leap second, probably some time in the 2030s.

https://datacenter.iers.org/data/html/bulletina-xxxvi-034.html




   I do not think that a negative leap second is coming up so
   soon with the latest predictions of the IERS. At the
   currently predicted LOD of -0.08 ms/d, it takes 24 years
   for UT1 - UTC to increase from 0.0 s to 0.7 s; and by then,
   leap seconds will have been "suspended".

   Michael Deckers.


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Re: [LEAPSECS] speeding up again?

2023-06-21 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


    On 2023-06-20 12:21, Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS referenced:



[https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/1345_2022_167]



    which was already cited by Richard Langley on 2023-06-17.

    Sorry for the duplication.


    MD.


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Re: [LEAPSECS] speeding up again?

2023-06-20 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2023-06-16 01:48, Tom Van Baak wrote about the relationship of 
LOD with El Niño:


Attached is an LOD plot I made a while ago. A random web google link 
says "The five strongest El Niño events since 1950 were in the winters 
of 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98". To my eyeball I 
just don't see that in the historical LOD plot.



   The relationship between LOD and the El Niño events is
   not so easy to spot, see eg
   [https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/1345_2022_167]

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] speeding up again?

2023-06-18 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS

   On 2023-06-16 13:46, jimlux wrote:


10 terasquare meters



   You mean 10 square megameters = 10 Mm²; SI suffixes
   apply to named units, not to its powers.

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] Inside GNSS published an update of my CGSIC talk

2023-03-20 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


On 2023-03-20 19:36, Michael Deckers wrote:




    This seems to be lenient enough to allow for not scheduling
    a negative leap second even in the case that the difference
    (UT1 - UTC) should go a bit below -1 s before 2035.


   when he meant "a bit above +1 s"

   MD.


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Re: [LEAPSECS] Inside GNSS published an update of my CGSIC talk

2023-03-20 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2023-03-20 07:54, Jürgen Appel via LEAPSECS wrote:



In your Conclusion, you say "the CGPM resolution also stipulates that no
change to current practices can occur before 2035."

This is not how I read read the CGPM document on the BIPM website:
"The General Conference on Weights and Measures (CGPM), at its 27th meeting
[...] decides that the maximum value for the difference (UT1-UTC) will be
increased in, or before, 2035,"

So in case the negative leap seconds become a real threat, according to my
interpretation is is an option to increase the tolerance value earlier than
2035 to avoid trying out negative leap seconds a last and first time.

Can someone confirm my view?




    You read correctly, the French (official) version has

   ..."décide que la valeur maximale pour la différence
   (UT1 - UTC) sera augmentée au plus tard en 2035,"

    which means "in 2035 at the latest".

    Note also that the definition of UTC as approved by the
    CGPM never mentions _any_ explict bound for |UT1 - UTC|; it
    only says that (TAI - UTC) is an integral multiple of 1 s
    as determined by the IERS. It is the IERS who state that

   "Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) a measure of time
    that conforms, within approximately 1 s, to the mean
    diurnal motion of the Sun and serves as the basis of
    all civil timekeeping."

    quoting the IAU "Nomenclature for Fundamental Astronomy (NFA)"
    found at http://syrte.obspm.fr/iauWGnfa/NFA Glossary.html.

    This seems to be lenient enough to allow for not scheduling
    a negative leap second even in the case that the difference
    (UT1 - UTC) should go a bit below -1 s before 2035.

    Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] King Charles

2022-12-04 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2022-12-04 17:01, Steve Allen wrote:


On Sun 2022-12-04T16:30:01+ Tony Finch hath writ:

So if you agree with Donald Sadler, has already GMT concluded.

I do agree, and I also disagree, for Sadler was in large part
responsible for another tacit change to GMT.  Like others engaged in
the present redefinitions, given his job Sadler could not have dared
to describe the consequences of that in plain language.



   The upcoming redefinition of UTC may well be seen as the logical
   consequence of its tremendous success as a reference time scale:
   billions of devices need an easily accessible continuous time
   scale with constant rate for sequencing events and for the
   computation of time derivatives.

   And the secular deviation of UT from UTC in the future might
   be one of the consequences that you think D H Sadler did not
   dare to describe in plain language.

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] future access to solar time?

2022-11-21 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2022-11-21 14:19, Seaman, Robert Lewis - (rseaman) wrote:


In a post-leap-second world, precision values for dUT1 either become more 
critical or less. Or rather, they become no-less important scientifically but 
perhaps negligible politically. For 
example,https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117719302388  
says “Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are dependent on VLBI as they 
need dUT1 to maintain its operability”.




   I am not sure if we mean the same thing by "dUT1". I used
   it in the sense:
  dUT1 is an additonal correction to UTC so that
  UTC +  DUT1 + dUT1
  is a better approximation of UT1 than just
  UTC +  DUT1
  and takes its values in the set {0, ±20, ±40, ±60, ±80} ms.

   dUT1 in this sense is used only by some Russian time signals,
   and its value is not defined by the IERS. Moreover, since the
   amplitude of UT1 - UT2 is about 34 ms, dUT1 must be adjusted
   for annual variations of UT1 - UTC.

   I have seen the term "dUT1" to be used for ΔUT1 = UT1 - UTC
   (and that is how I read it in the paper you quoted), and
   also for the rate d(UT1) -- but these are different beasts.

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] future access to solar time?

2022-11-21 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2022-11-20 15:15, Tony Finch asked:

  (Do any of
the national broadcast signals actually follow the ITU spec?)



   Lists of UTC time signals with details about the coding are in
   the Annual reports of the BIPM time department, at
   [https://www.bipm.org/en/time-ftp/annual-reports].
   A few of them transmit DUT1 (and even dUT1).

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] Alanna Mitchell in NYT

2022-11-14 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2022-11-14 19:48, Steve Allen wrote:

The NYT article ends with Arias ruminating about how someday
there will have to be a leap minute or leap hour.




    Of course, nobody will propose leap minutes or leap hours in UTC
    after 2135 just to decrease the difference UTC - UT1.

    The reason why the CIPM (for now) sticks to the requirement that
    |UTC - UT1| be bounded is most probably the argument brought forward
    by some people from ISO who say that, without explicit bound on
    |UTC - UT1|, UTC had to change its name so that "polysemy" is avoided.

    Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] fb/meta join the leap second haters

2022-07-26 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2022-07-26 05:08, Steve Allen wrote:

The CNET article includes a quote from correspondence which
repeats a trick that has been performed since the 1960s, that
being to produce a significant underestimate of the difference
between solar and atomic time by saying that the absence of
leap seconds will not be noticed for 2000 years.




   The CGPM resolution to be adopted in November, online at
[https://www.bipm.org/documents/20126/66742098/Draft-Resolutions-2022.pdf/2e8e53df-7a14-3fc8-8a04-42dd47df1a04]
   only requires continuity of UTC - TAI for 100 years.

   Michael Deckers.

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[LEAPSECS] IERS Bulletin D141

2021-07-04 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS



   Another first has happened: Bulletin D141 at
   [https://datacenter.iers.org/data/latestVersion/17_BULLETIN_D17.txt]
   specifies that DUT1 jumps from -0.2 s to -0.1 s on 2021-07-21T00Z.

   This is the first time ever (since 1972) that the approximation
   UTC + DUT1 of UT1 makes a jump upwards (is advanced).

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] DUT1 about to backtrack

2021-01-08 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


On 2021-01-08 19:57, John Sauter via LEAPSECS wrote:


I attach a plot of historical values of DUT1 based on the old issues of
Bulletin A kept on the IERS' web site.




   I think the graph of DUT1 is not quite correct, for instance:

   On 2009-01-01, there was a switch of DUT1 from -0.6 s to +0.4 s due 
to a leap second (Bulletin C36)
   On 2009-03-12, there was a switch of DUT1 from +0.4 s to +0.3 s 
(Bulletin D102)

   Your graph only has one switch, on 2009-01-01 from -0.6 s to +0.3 s

   Michael Deckers.


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[LEAPSECS] LOD reaches 0 s/d

2020-11-12 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


    The latest Bulletin A

[https://datacenter.iers.org/data/latestVersion/6_BULLETIN_A_V2013_016.txt]

    predicts that d(UT2)/d(TAI) = 1 after 2021-11-13, ie
    the rates of UTT2 and TAI are expected to agree for the
    next year. This has never happened since 1961. We may
    not need to abolish leap seconds for quite a while.

    Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] long interval predicted

2020-08-08 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2020-08-08 10:46, John Sauter via LEAPSECS wrote:



UT2 captures the seasonal change in the length of day, so it can be
ignored for long-term estimates.  The important number, therefore, is
-0.00010, which I will call the UT1 slope.


    Perhaps "slope of UT2 - UTC (as predicted by the IERS)" would be a 
better

    name, as the formula of Bulletin A implies (by taking the derivative
    after adding the implied units):

    d(UT2)/d(UTC) = 1 - 0.10 ms/d.

    But anyway, UT2 still contains known short period (<= 35 d) 
fluctuations,

    and currently, the combined amplitude of these fluctuations exceeds
    by far the indicated secular trend of UT2 during their periods.

    Another observation, namely the increase in the uncertainty of UT1 
- TAI

    as given in the long term EOP parameters (published by the IERS in
[https://datacenter.iers.org/data/latestVersion/38_EOP_C01.1900-NOW_V2013_0138.txt])
    from 4 µs to 30 µs since J2020.40 = 2020-05-26.6 may be a related 
effect.


    Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] Bulletin C number 60

2020-07-08 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2020-07-07 22:37, Steve Allen wrote:


The earth has accelerated so that it is spinning as fast as it was
during World War 2, and before that, the 1890s.



   Yes, Bulletin A vol 33 no 027 predicts that 2020 will be the
   first year since 1972 without change of DUT1 (= UT1 - UTC up to
   0.1 s). And its prediction for the (seasonally smoothed) length
   of day after 2021.5 is d(UTC)/d(UT2) ~= 1 + 0.13 ms/d.

   Michael Deckers.



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Re: [LEAPSECS] Leap seconds have a larger context than POSIX

2020-02-05 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2020-02-04 21:16, Steve Allen wrote:



The first time that the 4th meeting of the CCDS happened was in 1966,
but that meeting is not found in any official record.  The meeting
ended with a vote to recommend that the CGPM should adopt an SI second
based on cesium, but the circumstances of that vote were deemed so
abusive that the entire meeting was nullified.  That did not stop the
rush for an atomic second.  During the next year subsets of the CCDS
members gathered for discussions at other meetings.  When the second
4th meeting of the CCDS was held in 1967 they did recommend the cesium
second to the CGPM.



   From the standpoint of a physicist, the 1960 definition of the SI second
   (based on ET and Newcomb's tables for the Sun) was extremely 
impractical.

   With the wide availability of Cs clocks, the atomic second was much
   easier and more precisely reproducible than the SI second, so a
   redefinition of the second (or at least a practical unit, as with
   the recently abolished practical volt and ohm) was urgent.

   On the other hand, you are certainly right that the actions of the
   CCDS in 1967 appear strange: they propose to redefine the SI second,
   and then go on to propose that the BIH, IAU, IUGG, URSI, and CCIR
   study the problems arising from the new definition ("étudier les
   problèmes soulevés par l'application des décisions prises
   concernants la nouvelle définition de l'unité du temps").
   Apparently, it did not even occur to them that this is bad
   engineering.

   The proposal of the IAU GA13 in 1967 to introduce an (unsteered)
   international atomic time scale would have allowed to study the
   possible problems of a redefinition of the SI second before
   applying it.




Folks at the PTB took a different aim by introducing draft legislation
that the German government passed in 1969.  The law made it illegal
for the German government to broadcast anything other than SI seconds,
and it would become effective in 1970.  This seems to have pulled the
trigger on the CCIR process, for without some kind of quick action a
major nation would be broadcasting time signals using a different
scale than other nations.


   The law on legal units in West Germany, from 1969-07-02, lists under
   the title "tasks of the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt"
   that the PTB has to publicize the procedures by which units without
   material prototype are realized, including the units of time and
   time scales, as well as the temperature unit and temperature scales.
 (" hat die Verfahren bekanntzumachen, nach denen nicht verkörperte
    Einheiten, einschließlich der Zeiteinheiten und der Zeitskalen
    sowie der Temperatureinheit und Temperaturskalen, dargestellt
    werden,")
   This can be taken to imply the task to disseminate a standard
   frequency (which they already did). But in my opinion it does not
   imply that UTC must have the same rate as the atomic time scales
   at the time -- the law even allows for several time scales.

   I'll try to find out how the PTB was involved in this legislation
   as far as time in concerned. In Germany, federal law can only
   be proposed by members of parliament, and by federal and state
   governments; but the PTB was certainly heard during the legislative
   process.




In my home state of California the process that led to UTC with leap
seconds would have been illegal under the Brown Act that requires
public access to meetings.  But in the full context that is not the
most criminal aspect of the process that led to the 1970 CCIR
decision.



   Yes, and the ITU-R deliberations before the WRC in 2015 were not
   transparent either. Nevertheless, past decisions of the CCIR and
   the IAU have become accessible nowadays.

   Let's hope that the CIPM treats any future discussions about
   a redefinition of UTC in an open manner, and that it adheres
   to rational design and decision processes. The recent revision
   of the SI has been largely transparent and guided by good practices.

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] Leap seconds have a larger context than POSIX

2020-02-04 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2020-02-04 13:44, Tony Finch wrote:



The IERS Bulletins C state a value of UTC-TAI "until further notice".

However the machine-readable files from IERS and NIST give an expiry date
of a few days less than 6 months after the announced (lack of) leap
second, or a bit more than 11 months after the latest Bulletin C.
Is this expiry date reliable or just advisory? History suggests it's
reliable, but the standards do not.

It's unclear to me what governs the frequency of announcements or their
validity period, i.e. where are current practices documented? what is the
process for changing them? how will we know if a change is planned? and so
on. This is all about how much we can assume that the IERS will continue
to operate leap seconds as they have for nearly 50 years, or whether they
will make use of the much weaker guarantees given by TF.460, or (wishful
thinking) whether they can schedule leap seconds further in the future.




   The IERS (and BIH) policy to use only the primary
   choices for the insertions of leap seconds is only
   guaranteed in the text of Bulletin C -- if LOD
   increases sufficiently, that text will have to
   change.

   There is a similar situation for Bulletins D -- each
   of them announces when the next one is expected to
   be issued. But even nowadays these predictions of
   UT1 - UTC are not very reliable, and they often err
   on the "wrong" side (DUT1 changes earlier than
   predicted).

   For instance, Bulletins D139, D134, and D129 each
   came earlier than predicted by the preceding Bulletin D;
   Bulletin D129 (of 2016-04-15) was even significantly earlier
   (45 d) than predicted by Bulletin D128 (of 2016-02-19).

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] Leap seconds have a larger context than POSIX

2020-02-03 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


On 2020-02-02 22:30, Steve Allen wrote:

On Sun 2020-02-02T17:59:20+ Michael Deckers hath writ:

The maximum deviation |UTC - UT1| <= 0.9 s as stipulated in
1974 by CCIR Rec. 460-1 has never been violated until now.

That violates the agreement that the difference between
UTC and UT1 would be encoded as part of the time broadcasts.



   Actually, the difference |UTC - UT1| has always been < 0.8 s
   except around 1973-01-01.

   And DUT1 has assumed the value 0.8 s only once, for a few days
   on and after 1994-07-01, as specified in Bulletin D46 (online at
   [https://datacenter.iers.org/data/17/bulletind-046.txt]).

   That Bulletin is remarkable in several respects: it describes
   two switches of DUT1, not just one, and it was issued on 1994-06-21,
   only 10 days before the first switch (rather than a month before
   it, as was requested -- from the BIH -- in CCIR Rec 460-4 of 1986).




In one case it was broken specifically because a high official at CCIR
conceded to a high official from USSR and directed the BIH to violate
the wording of the existing agreement.

Do you mean the only violation of applicable CCIR rules, the
introduction of a leap second into UTC at 1973-01-01?

Right.  Sadler covers this in his memoir and in several contemporary
publications.

Delving into this reveals more of the fear in the process.

Several memoirs show that the principals involved with the creation of
UTC with leaps were very concerned that the change of broadcast time
signals might cause havoc with ships using celestial navigation.
Reading through those shows palpable relief when they managed to evoke
from the Maritime Safety Committee of the IMCO a statement that Rec.
460 would not cause difficulties with navigation predicated on the
expectation that governments whose radio broadcasts used new UTC would
issue notices about the change of their broadcasts.  That meant that
the Time Lords did not have their arses on the line if a ships might
collide as a result of the new system.  With the maximum difference of
0.7 s that could be encoded in the radio broadcasts not being able to
handle the 0.9 s difference that put their arses back on the line.

Other concern was expressed that exceeding the 0.7 limit might be
blamed on the BIH and might trigger governmental review of the
operation and funding of the BIH.  At that time about 80% of the funds
for BIH were coming from Observatoire de Paris as slush from their
allotment from the French government.  That was hardly an
"international" arrangement, but BIH had only just been handed the
responsibility for maintaining TAI specifically because any other
arrangement would have required effectively duplicating the
expertise and hardware of the BIH and finding a way to fund that.

Prompting governments or journalists to open an investigation into the
process of writing an international "technical" specification that was
violated in less than two years was not a welcome notion.




   Very interesting, thanks for these details!

   Concerning the technical expertise of the CCIR with time scales: one
   of the early proposals of the CCIR has been a "stepped atomic time"
   with steps of 1 s and maximal difference of 0.5 s from UT2 (as mentioned
   in the 1970 report of commission 31 available via your web site on
[https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/1970IAUTA..14..343Z/ADS_PDF])
   -- apparently they had not consulted any astronomer, even though they
   used to "request" many actions from the BIH in their specifications of
   time scales.

   The 1970 report also contains the proposal that the CIPM should be
   responsible for the definition of UTC, and 49 years later, the CGPM
   in 2019 seems to have taken on that task with the resolution
   [https://www.bipm.org/en/CGPM/db/26/2/] which notably has no
   requirement that |UTC - UT1| be bounded.

   Michael Deckers.


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Re: [LEAPSECS] Leap seconds have a larger context than POSIX

2020-02-02 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2020-02-01 23:59, Steve Allen wrote:


In every instance where a document
specified a maximum deviation that agreement was later violated.



   The maximum deviation |UTC - UT1| <= 0.9 s as stipulated in
   1974 by CCIR Rec. 460-1 has never been violated until now.


In one case it was broken specifically because a high official at CCIR
conceded to a high official from USSR and directed the BIH to violate
fthe wording of the existing agreement.


   Do you mean the only violation of applicable CCIR rules, the
   introduction of a leap second into UTC at 1973-01-01?

   If so -- this was the choice of using either the date 1973-01-01
   for the insertion of the leap second, or a later date before
   1973-07-01.
  This is evident because at the time, the mean excess length
  of day LOD = d(TAI - UT1)/d(UT1) was observed to be >= 3 ms/d,
  which is more than 0.5 s per 6 months.

   Hence the choice was to either stick with the bound 0.7 s for
   |UT1 - UTC| as required by CCIR Report 517 of 1971, or else stick
   with the primary choices for the possible dates of the insertion
   of leap seconds.

   Apparently, the "high official from USSR" must have preferred
   the latter.

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] complete history of UT2

2019-06-12 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS



 On 2019-06-05 05:28, Steve Allen wrote:

I have plowed through enough of Bulletin Horaire to find the complete
history of UT2.
https://www.ucolick.org/~sla/leapsecs/seasonal.html
Missing from the earlier version of the plots on this web page was the
story of how exactly the BIH performed the transition between the
first version of UT2-UT1 and the second version.
Naively the change of the expression requires a jump of 6 ms
at the beginning of 1962, but that is not what the BIH dictated.

Look at the middle plot and see how the year started along one
curve and finished along the other.



 Thanks! That clarifies that the 5 ms step down in UTC at 1961-01-01
 has nothing to do with the change in the formula for UT2 as a
 function of UT1.

 Nowadays, the role of UT2 is reduced: it is given in Bulletin A
 as a linear function of UTC, as a means to extend the prediction
 of UT1 as given in the Bulletins.

 Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] DCF77 and the inception of leap seconds

2019-02-02 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


On 2019-02-01 17:56, Steve Allen wrote:


The PTB-controlled broadcasts were pure SI
seconds thus making those broadcasts a form of Stepped Atomic Time
which was approved as experimental by CCIR Rec 374-1 in 1966.



   The DCF77 service started on 1959-01-01 and sent astronomically
   determined signals for UT2 or UTC until 1970-04-01 when the
   signals of DHI stopped. The PTB used Cs clocks since 1962,
   and the PTB time signals in DCF77 used steps but never used an
   offset in rate.

   See
  Andreas Bauch, Peter Hetzel, Dirk Piester: "Zeit- und
  Frequenzverbreitung mit DCF77: 1959 – 2009 und darüber hinaus".
  in: PTB Mitteiliungen, 2009 Heft 3. 2009-09 Braunschweig.
  online at
  [https://www.ptb.de/cms/fileadmin/internet/publikationen
/ptb_mitteilungen/mitt2009/Heft3/PTB-Mitteilungen_2009_Heft_3.pdf]

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] the epoch of TAI, with no more doubt

2019-01-22 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2019-01-22 05:17, Steve Allen wrote:



Curiously there is not a big jump in the value of UT2 - A3 at that
same date which would have been caused by changing from the old
expression for UT2 - UT1 to the new expression.  I surmise that this
means Stoyko and Guinot did correct the old values of UT2 for the
change in that formula.


   In [https://www.ucolick.org/~sla/leapsecs/taiepoch.html], the
   table F on page 74 in fact does not show a step in ΔA3 = UT2 - A3
   between the lines for 1961 January 00 and January 05 (which is
   why you could interpolate linearly to obtain UT2 - A3 = -1.4123 s
   for 1961-01-01).

   And the column "WWV3" equally shows no step at 1961-01-01,
   and since it is probably meant to be "BIH integrated atomic time
   - time signaled by WWV3" (where the latter should include the
   step down by 5 ms), the point of tabulation "Janvier 0" may
   actually be the instant when UT2 was 1960 Dec 31 - 5 ms.
   So yes, the entry may have been "corrected".

   Anyway, a jump down by 5 ms occurred in (what was later baptized)
   UTC on 1961-01-01 (see [Explanatory Supplement 1992, p 87]).
   I always thought that this was done to adapt to the jump in UT2
   caused by the change in the formula for UT2 - UT1, but from the
   graphs in [https://www.ucolick.org/~sla/leapsecs/seasonal.html]
   (thanks!) I have to conclude that UT2 must have made an
   upward jump by about 5 ms, while the step by 5 ms in UTC
   at 1961-01-01 definitely was a downward jump (it is also included
   as such in the SOFA function iauDat()). Did I make a sign error?

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] the epoch of TAI, with no more doubt

2019-01-21 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


  On 2019-01-21 00:42, Steve Allen wrote:



Of course there was a time step.  The BIH had to deal with totally
hetergeneous data from an ever changing set of contributors.  Almost
every year for the BIH there was a systematic offset from the times of
other years.  But until the cesium standard there really is little
worth in the absolute values; the importance of the numbers in
Bulletin Horaire liese in seeing and understanding the differences
between contemporary time services.



   For the internally used and tabulated time scales, yes, there may
   be steps, as convenient. But steps in a time scale used to
   dissmeinate time signals with their own steps and rate offsets
   are highly inconvenient. I was of the incorrect opinion that
   the BIH integrated atomic time scale was aligned with the coordinated
   atomic time scales used by the RGO, NBS, USNO etc since 1960-01-01;
   but it was not, and only joined on 1961-01-01.

   Thanks for the corretion!


A3 begins 1961-01-01.  It does not exist before then.  Not even when
Guinot re-interpolated all the atomic time scales in Bulletin
Horaire ser J no 7 did he extend A3 before then.  He introduced his
final reconstruction of the old atomic data with
 It is therefore possible to construct, starting from an arbitrary
 common origin, scales of Atomic Time ...
By that 1966 publication Guinot had ceased to mention 1961-01-01, but
linear interpolation of his new A3 tabulation has the value -1.4123 s
on 1961-01-01T20, the same as had been used by Anna Stoyko when she
re-set all of the BIH atomic time scales.



   You are of course right; instead of "A3" I should have said
   "the integrated atomic time scale produced by the BIH for 1957..1960
   and which agrees with UT2 at J1958.0", as described on pages 99..101
   in [https://www.bipm.org/utils/common/pdf/CC/CCTF/CCDS2.pdf].

   From the steps in the WWV time signals as documented in the
   Explanatory Supplement 1992, p 86..87, I compute a decrease
   of 1.465 056 s in the WWV time signals against the underlying
   Cs atomic scale, while this scale ranged over the interval
   from J1958.0 until 1961-01-01, and this applies to all
   continuous time scales with the same rate.

   So, when A3 - UT2 at 1961-01-01 was set to 1.4123 s by the BIH,
   this must amount to a step of about -53 ms at 1961-01-01 in the
   BIH integrated atomic time scales before and after 1961-01-01.
   (And there was no step in UT2 on 1961-01-01.)

   If this step was done to align A3 with the coordinated times
   already in use, I am surprised that such a large deviation
   between integrated atomic clocks could accrue over three
   years -- A and N Stoyko estimated the deviation after 3 years
   to be 10 ms in the paper quoted above.

   Regardless of this difference, there is a thing common to
   all integrated atomic time scales that suggests that they all
   are intended to have J1958.0 as their origin: their difference
   to ET (and later to TT and TDB). In fact, TT - TAI remains very
   close to 32.148 s, which in turn is close to the value ET - UT2
   when UT2 was J1958.0 (but ET - UT2 differs by about 0.5 s for
   the neighboring years). A step of 0.05 s does not change this
   property.


Guinot also indicates that he retained the jump of 1.6 ms on
1962-01-01 in his new tabulation of A3.  These various tabulations
deserve to be plotted and examined closely for a step, especially
because 1962-01-01 was also the date of the final change in the
expression for the seasonal variation of UT2 - UT1.
https://www.ucolick.org/~sla/leapsecs/seasonal.html
That change should introduce a step of about 6 ms, and this subject is
not mentioned in any of the BIH writeups.



   Do you happen to know in which tabulation the jump by 1.6 ms
   occurs? A3 minus which other time scale?

   The 1962 change in the UT2 formula did not apply to prior years;
   a step in UT2 may have influenced the disseminated time signals
   which followed UT2, and the step causes jumps in some differences
   such as A3 - UT2, but it does not not cause a step in UT1 or in
   any (integrated) atomic time scale.

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] the epoch of TAI, with no more doubt

2019-01-20 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


  On 2019-01-20 17:19, Steve Allen wrote:


Those pages are a response to Recommendation 2 from the second CCDS
meeting held 1961-04-11/1961-04-12.  At the CCDS meeting BIH presented
an initial effort to integrate and compare all the cesium standards
for which data were available, and BIH was the only place with the
timing data from all the labs.  The BIPM has now scanned and published
the proceedings from all the CCDS meetings, so anybody can look at this.

During those CCDS proceedings is the discussion on what value to give
to an atomic time scale:
 The president [Danjon] insists on the need to define a zero, even
 arbitrary, for the time scale; it is necessary to date terrestrial
 and astronomical events in a certain calendar.


   Thanks for the pointer!

   Yes, Danjon wants a zero epoch defined, but Markowitz opines that
   this is of interest only ("uniquement") for the IAU who should
   decide upon it.


The table with the inception of A9 in my web page from Bulletin
Horaire ser 5 no 13 was created scant months after the original
table in ser G no 8.  The intro to the A9 table discusses the
difference between the "5 anciens" standards and the 4 new ones.
The intro explicitly states that the BIH is choosing to reset their
value of all these atomic time scales at 1961-01-01T20:00:00 UT2.


   But this seems to state something about the inputs for the data
   reduction by the BIH. It does not say that the integrated atomic
   time scale of the BIH, the BIH output, has had a step at the time,
   or a step in rate, or does it?

   I understand that the BIH had to adapt every once in a while the
   constants for integrating the atomic time scales from their
   intermittent comparisons (because of the addition of new clocks,
   and because of the increasing accuracy). But I would assume that
   the goal in such adaptations must have been to keep the phase and
   rate of A3 without any noticeable steps over such a change.


Guinot knew this, in part because after Anna Stoyko decided to create
A3 and sync it with A9 Guinot later re-interpolated A3.  More
unquestionably, in Bulletin Horaire ser J no 1 p 3 Guinot wrote
that the origin of A3 and all other BIH TAi values was 1961 Jan 1
and he referred to Bulletin Horaire ser 5 no 13.



   Guinot must have known, but in 2004 he said (together with Arias)
   that the origin was J1958.0. Couldn't that mean that the change on
   1961-01-01 was designed to have no effect on A3 as published by
   the BIH?

   Michael Deckers.





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Re: [LEAPSECS] the epoch of TAI, with no more doubt

2019-01-20 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2019-01-20 00:50, Steve Allen wrote:



I took a closer read and cross reference of the relevant
issues of Bulletin Horaire and finalized my web page.
The epoch at which TAI was set is definitely 1961-01-01T20:00:00 UT2


   Arias and Guinot say in "Coordinated Universal Time UTC: Historical
   Background And Perspectives", online at
   [https://syrte.obspm.fr/journees2004/PDF/Arias2.pdf]:

  "In 1961, the BIH assigned a common origin to these time scales
  [atomic time A1 of USNO for other integrated atomic times]
  by coincidence with UT2 on the 1st of January 1958 (Stoyko, 1961).
  The same origin was used for the BIH mean atomic time."

   The reference is to:
  "Stoyko A., 1961, Bulletin Horaire du BIH, Série G, 241-245."
   That is probably a source you may have access to.

   The quote implies that the BIH scale A3 (precursor of TAI) was taken
   to agree with UT2 at J1958.0, but of course this does not rule out
   that the two time scales also agreed at some later instant.

   Apparently, the origin J1958.0 was taken retrospectively, and
   did not just appply to the BIH atomic scales. Since atomic scales
   had an uncertainty of a few ms per year at the time, it should be
   possible to verify whether they all agreed at J1958.0 or at
   1960-01-01T20 -- it is unlikely that they all ever agreed on more
   than one instant.

   Michael Deckers.


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Re: [LEAPSECS] leapseconds, converting between GPS time (week, second) and UTC

2019-01-18 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


On 2019-01-18 17:11, Michael H Deckers wrote:





   .. insert a step of 0.2 s in their time signal about every 71 days.


   when he meant "about every 77 days".

   Michael Deckers.


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Re: [LEAPSECS] the inception of leap seconds

2018-08-18 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2018-08-15 11:49, Zefram wrote:



Time Service Announcement 14 #8 (1971-10-08) discusses the irregular
leap (still called a "step") at the end of 1971, but weirdly gives a
different size for that step from that which is implied by tai-utc.dat.
The announcement states a step size of 107600 us, but the expressions in
tai-utc.dat imply a step size of exactly 107758 us.  The announcement is
 The 107758 us computed from tai-utc.dat is in microseconds
of TAI, and the leap is only a few nanoseconds shorter in UTC.



   I cannot explain the -107.6 ms jump of the Announcement; but
   the 1992 "Explanatory Supplement to the Astronomical Almanac"
   contains jumps of WWV on p 86..87 that are not in tai-utc.dat.
   Anyway, I also think that the jump of UTC(USNO) did not happen
   when TAI was 1972-01-01 + 10 s, as implied by the Announcement,
   but a bit earlier. See below.



.  The announcement is
ambiguous as to whether this step size is specified in microseconds of UTC
or of TAI, apparently ignoring the UTC frequency offset for this purpose,
though the offset isn't anywhere near big enough to account for the
discrepancy.



   While UTC is defined to be a piecewise linear function of TAI,
   the practice was (and still is) to specify TAI - UTC (and thus TAI) as
   a piecewise linear function of UTC. The "steps" specified in
   Bulletin C are steps in TAI - UTC, hence also of TAI, as a function
   of UTC -- which probably is what you mean by "microseconds of TAI".

   Time Service Announcement 14 #8 of 1971-10-08 is no exception: it gives
   TAI - 10 s - UTC(old) as maintained by the USNO as a function of 
UTC(old),

   where UTC(old) is the unique linear extension of UTC as defined directly
   before 1972-01-01. Thus, the member  2 592 (MJD - 41 317)
   has to be read as    2 592·(UTC(old) - 
1972-01-01)/(1 d).


   The inverse relation to UTC as a function of TAI is not a function: UTC
   assumes some values twice, for different values of TAI (when UTC makes a
   jump down); and UTC did not assume some values (when UTC made a jump up,
   as it last did around 1968-02-01). So TAI is a sometimes two-valued
   (positive leaps) and sometimes undefined (negative leaps) "function"
   of UTC, and it is not always clear where it differs from the function
   TAI of UTC that is officially specified.

   The discontinuity of UTC near 1972-01-01 is an exception because the
   jump up of TAI - UTC from 9.892 242 s to 10 s was accompanied by a
   jump in the (piecewise constant) rate d(TAI)/d(UTC) from 1 + 2.592 ms/d
   down to 1 (the only case where both TAI - UTC and d(TAI - UTC) have been
   discontinuous). Here we do know that a jump of UTC from 1972-01-01
   to 1972-01-01 - 0.107 758 s must have happened when TAI was
   1972-01-01 + 9.892 242 s. At any other value of TAI between
   1972-01-01 + 9.892 242 s and 1972-01-01 + 10 s, the jump in phase
   would have been by a different amount, and not by an integral multiple
   of 1 µs.

   HTH

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] Windows Server 2019

2018-07-23 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS



   On 2018-07-20 18:05, Stephen Scott wrote:



While there is no perfect answer, it seems that Microsoft Azure 
servers got it right for the last one, incorporating the leap second 
just before midnight local time.



    No, they didn't.

    A leap second describes a discontinuity in the function TAI - UTC. 
For the last leap second,
    the value TAI - UTC  was 37 s since TAI was 2017-01-01T00:00:37, 
and for some

    time before that, it was 36 s until TAI reached 2017-01-01T00:00:36.
    The standards do _not_ say when exactly TAI - UTC switched from 36 
s to 37 s, but it must have
    been between the TAI values 2017-01-01T00:00:36 and 
2017-01-01T00:00:37, inclusive, as can
    be inferred (perhaps with some good will) from IERS Bulletin C52 of 
2016-07-06 (the official

    specification of this leap second).

    The time interval between these TAI values (excluding the TAI value 
2017-01-01T00:00:37) is called
    a positive leap second; the corresponding UTC values are denoted 
(in ISO 8601 format) with

    second values >= 60 (as specified in ITU-R TF.460-6 of 2002).

    This is true everywhere near the surface of the Earth, even for 
Kiritimati. So Kiritimati
    had its last leap second when every other location on the Earth had 
it, that is,
    when TAI went from 2017-01-01T00:00:36  to just before 
2017-01-01T00:00:37,
    and  UTC went from 2016-12-31-23:59:60Z to just before 
2017-01-01T00:00:00Z; so that local time
    went from 2017-01-01T13:59:60+14 to just before 
2017-01-01T14:00:00+14 during that leap second.


    HTH.

    Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] Windows Server 2019

2018-07-23 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS



   On 2018-07-21 01:08, Steve Allen wrote:




At that same meeting IAU Comm 31 was led to yield that they had no
influence over the leap seconds that the CCIR had instituted, and IAU
Comm 31 was pressed to produce a statement declaring that leap seconds
were "the optimum solution."
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1971IAUTB..14..198W



   Thanks for that document!

   I note the typo on page 198 where it says under the heading
   "9. Designation of the epoch of steps in UTC":
  "9.1. If UTC is to be advanced, then second 00 will follow
    23h 59m 58s of the previous day."
  "9.2. If UTC is to be retarded, then the second of the previous day
    23h 59m 58s will be followed by the next second 0h 00m 00s
    of the first day of the month."

   And the text
  "9.4. The time of an event given in the old scale, before the
    leap second, will be given as a data in the previous month,
    exceeding 24h if necessary. The time of an event given in the
    scale after the step will be given as a data in the new month,
    with a negative time, if necessary."
    gives not only the leap second notation long before CCIR codified it
    in 1978, but also shows an alternative notation.



All of the above strike me as "something is seriously wrong here."

Looking deeper into the history and memoirs by folks who were involved
it becomes clear that the inception of leap seconds was the
culmination of a 20 year game of international regulatory and
scientific agency pinball.  After the CCIR introduced them that game
continued for another 10 years as other agencies and governments were
led to approve the notion of UTC with leap seconds using words like
"parfaitment recommandable".


    I do not see what you mean here. Before 1972, the BIH (under control
    of the IAU) had defined UTC. The document (above) you quoted contains
    the approval by IAU Commissions 4 and 31 to the leap second scheme as
    proposed by the CCIR. The introduction of leap seconds happened 
with the

    support of the BIH, and all the discrepancies among disseminated radio
    time scales vanished on 1972-01-01. Not much gaming.

    The recommendation of the 15th CGPM in 1975 that "this usage
    [of UTC] can be strongly endorsed" does not appear to me to have
    been forced upon the CGPM. The resolution does not even call UTC a
    time scale, it merely states what was obvious at the time:
 •  that the system called “Coordinated Universal Time” (UTC)
    is widely used,
 •  that it is broadcast in most radio transmissions of time signals,
 •  that this wide diffusion makes available to the users not only
    frequency standards but also International Atomic Time and an
    approximation to Universal Time (or, if one prefers, mean solar 
time),
 •  that this Coordinated Universal Time provides the basis of 
civil time,

    the use of which is legal in most countries.

 Compare this with the proposed resolution B of the 26th CGPM in
 2018 November which declares that:
 •  UTC produced by the BIPM, based on TAI, is the only recommended
    time scale for international reference and the basis of civil
    time in most countries,
 This latter resolution can in fact be seen as the BIPM claiming
 the defining authority for UTC from ITU-R, by making it clear that
 the realization of UTC (except for the encoding of time signals)
 is already completely controlled by data from Bulletin T of
 the BIPM. If I were looking for a competition between
 standardizing bodies, I would rather point to this resolution.



I have found nothing that directly explains why it was repeatedly
deemed impossible for any of these agencies to explain and recommend
the existence of two kinds of time scales, but it seems clear that
the legal considerations led toward the notion of a compromise.



    I do not think that there was any disagreement around 1970 about
    the need for multiple time scales, neither among astronomers
    (who used many more time scales than just two) nor among radio
    people (who would at least distinguish TAI, UT0, UT1, UT2 and UTC).

    The CCIR wanted to select a reference time scale to be disseminated
    world-wide in order to achieve global synchronization in phase and
    frequency.  Disseminating two different reference time scales
    for that purpose does not make sense: a single globally available
    reference time scale allows for the dissemination and comparison of
    the readings of any number of time scales across the globe (up to
    the uncertainty of the rate of the reference time scale and only
    as far as these time scales use the same concept of synchronicity
    near the surface of the Earth).




So we have betrayal, eroded trust, and reduced usefulness because some
folks wanted to take what looked like a politically expedient shortcut
which was full of unexplained 

Re: [LEAPSECS] final report of the UK leap seconds dialog

2015-02-05 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2015-02-05 11:16, Peter Vince wrote:


  Yes, I took part in the initial meeting of professionals (so-called
stakeholders), where the issues were indeed thoroughly discussed, and well
understood (apart from some unfortunate absences - no-one from the military was
there, for example).  But on the video on the linked page below, nine members of
the public gave their views, one of them said If it's not broke, don't fix it,
and two others said they didn't understand what the fuss was all about - it's
been working OK for the last 25 times.  (And none of the nine people were in
favour of changing the system.)  I would sympathise with both those views, but
they seem ill-informed: I believe this discussion has come about exactly because
it *is* broken, and *hasn't* been working perfectly for the last 25 times.

  None of the people interviewed had even heard of leap-seconds - clearly
the stories about the long delays at Sydney(?) last time because of the Quantas
problem were too far away to register with them.  That's all fine, *we* were
busy managing the problem so the rest of the world didn't have to worry - as it
should be.

  But as I said before, I am disappointed that those members of the public
were left with the impression that there is nothing wrong, and we timekeepers
just want to change things for the sake of it.


  But where is the detailed list of the problems with the current version
  of UTC, where is the analysis of this list, and the exploration of the
  solution space?  Take for example the bad predictability of the current
  UTC, brought up repeatedly by Warner Losh. This could perhaps be
  alleviated by a long term specification of future leap seconds -- but
  this is apparently not even discussed by the ITU experts for Study
  Question ITU-R 236/7.

  It is exactly this lack of due engineering process that leads to the
  if it ain't broke position. And if the WRC votes for abandoning leap
  seconds, we would not know whether the IERS will continue to publish DUT1,
  or whether the BIPM will revoke TAI. I do not find it the least bit
  surprising that most average citizens oppose such a change.

  Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] [QUAR] Bulletin C and all that

2015-01-26 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


  On 2015-01-26 20:05, Brooks Harris wrote:


As a practical matter of modern timekeeping the UTC timescale started at
1972-01-01T00:00:00Z (UTC). NTP, POSIX, 1588/PTP and others refer to epochs and
timescales they call UTC that occur earlier than 1972-01-01, so this confuses
matters. But those epochs exist on Gregorian calendar timescale that is
proleptic to the UTC origin, not on the modern UTC timescale proper. We've got
to get past this confusion.


  A calendar provides a method for denoting datetime values.

  A time scale is a coordinate function within coordinate systems for
  physical (astronomical) models that assigns datetime values to each
  point in its domain of definition.

  Hence a calendar should not be confused with a time scale, even if
  the calendar is used exclusively for the notation of the values of a
  single time scale (which is not the case for the Gregorian calendar).

  Values of the time scale later called UTC by the BIH can be exactly
  related to TAI since 1961, see
  [hpiers.obspm.fr/iers/bul/bulc/UTC-TAI.history].


Steve Allen's Time Scales page points out -

Time Scales
http://www.ucolick.org/~sla/leapsecs/timescales.html

Nothing resembling the name UTC was used prior to 1960, so any claim that UTC
can be used before then is inappropriate. The name UTC did not appear in any
official context until 1974, so any claim that UTC was used prior to 1974 is
almost certainly a reinterpretation of history which does not correspond to
anything in contemporary documents.

The history is tangled, but none of it matters except to historians.


  I think that 1974 is just a typo for 1964; I do not see any error
  in the history.

  Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] Bulletin C and all that

2015-01-25 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


  On 2015-01-25 14:58, Rob Seaman wrote:


 Please let me know about typos, suggestions, etc.  Needless to say this

  remains a prototype.
...

 MM before  after  encoded crc IP  Decodedflags

 --

1972  1  9 10 f8000a00  f5  248.0.10.245- OK 1972  1  10  1  (1, 0)


  It would be incorrect to consider the discontinuity of the difference
  TAI - UTC at the epoch when TAI was 1972-01-01T00:00:10 as a leap second;
  the difference increased by about 0.108 s, not by 1 s. Hence, a timestamp
  such as 1971-12-31T23:59:60.2Z should not be made acceptable.

  The first leap second occurred when UTC reached 1972-07-01; the information
  about a leap second says something about TAI - UTC both before and after
  the date referenced. At 1972-01-01, however, the information can only say
  something about TAI - UTC for TAI on or after 1972-01-01T00:00:10, but
  nothing (correct) for smaller values of TAI.

  Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] the big artillery

2014-11-06 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2014-11-06 13:10, Steffen Nurpmeso wrote

   in defense of the description by the German metrology
   laboratory in [https://www.ptb.de/cms/en/fachabteilungen
   /abt4/fb-44/ag-441/coordinated-universal-time-utc.html]:


Hm, indeed a sloppy translation of the original German text

   Die Einführung der Zeitskala UTC geht auf Vorschläge des CCIR
   (Comité Consultatif International des Radiocommunications)
   zurück

which is more like Introduction of the time scale UTC originates
in suggestions made by...


  But the German text is equally wrong.

  The CCIR was tasked to find a common time scale for
  radio dissemination, but they did not suggest the
  underlying concepts of UTC. The concepts were developed
  about 1960 within the RGO, NPL, USNO and the BIH, at a
  time when time determination meant the reduction of
  UT0 to UT1, and a common reference time scale with
  rate close to UT2 was an enormous help.


But of course passion can't be replaced by anything else.
Maybe money?


  I do not see which point you want to make here.

  Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] the big artillery

2014-11-06 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


  On 2014-11-04 22:26, Steve Allen quoted Bernard Guinot
  about the unit for the difference TAI - UT1:


Guinot explained this using the term graduation second
in section 2.2 of 1995 Metrologia 31 431
http://iopscience.iop.org/0026-1394/31/6/002

He points out that the way the IAU has written the definitions of the
time scales uses a subtly ambiguous notation.  He writes

   The numerical value of UT1(IERS)-TAI does not
   of course, express a duration. In this context, the s
   only conveys the information that the readings of the
   two time scales are expressed in graduation seconds.


  Guinot comes back to this question, and revises his position,
  in [Guinot 2011, section 7.a, p 4139], where he exposes the
  underlying fundamental question: how can the set of spacelike
  and timelike coordinates be given consistent dimensions
  (invariant under the Minkowski group). He writes:

 (a) Unit of relativistic coordinates

 Some authors consider the relativistic coordinates as dimensionless,
 others give a special name to their unit, such as the ‘TCB second’ or
 a global name such as ‘graduation unit’. I was myself
 in favour of the latter name. However, after long discussions with
 eminent metrologists, Quinn and de Boer, I agreed that it was
 simpler to name ‘second’ the graduation unit. Thus, more generally,
 all quantities having the dimension of time have the second (without
 any qualifier) as their unit, even if they have different natures,
 such as time interval and reading of a time scale. If the logic of
 this point of view seems rather obscure, then it is possible to
 consider it as a convention which has the merit of being in
 agreement with the quantity calculus. It also agrees with the
 metrological rule that the unit does not define a quantity.

   While I can only agree with Guinot's position, I am not sure whether
   space coordinates and relativistic change of coordinates can be modeled
   neatly in that way. Amazing that simple questions about time scales
   can lead to such really fundamental conceptual issues!

   Reference:
[Guinot 2011] Bernard Guinot: Time scales in the context of general
   relativity. in: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.
   vol 369 p 4131..4142. 2011-09-19. online at:
   [rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1953/4131.full.pdf]

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] the big artillery

2014-11-05 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


  On 2014-11-04 22:26, Steve Allen wrote:


Guinot explained this using the term graduation second
in section 2.2 of 1995 Metrologia 31 431
http://iopscience.iop.org/0026-1394/31/6/002

He points out that the way the IAU has written the definitions of the
time scales uses a subtly ambiguous notation.  He writes

   The numerical value of UT1(IERS)-TAI does not
   of course, express a duration. In this context, the s
   only conveys the information that the readings of the
   two time scales are expressed in graduation seconds.


  Thank you for that information!

  Yes, not every quantity with dimension time is a
  duration, let alone a duration of proper time. The
  difference between clock readings need not relate
  to proper time, and not even to the same time scale.
  A few operations with durations of differing time
  scales are considered to result in durations
  (eg, a weighted average of durations measured in
  different time scales), but most can not. And a
  sedimentation rate (a quotient velocity/acceleration)
  can not be considered as a duration, nor as
  the result of any other operation with time scales.

  Nevertheless, all these quantities have the dimension
  of time and can therefore be expressed with the SI
  unit for time, even though the SI second is (currently)
  defined as a duration of proper time. This is essential
  for the meaningful operations that one wants to perform
  with these quantities (differences of clock readings,
  averages of durations), but it also makes many
  meaningless operations possible (such as subtracting
  a sedimentation rate from a clock reading).

  Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] the big artillery

2014-11-05 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2014-11-05 11:28, Steffen Nurpmeso wrote:


Oh, the German Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) also
has a general -- at least -- overview of the set of problems.
(English: [1] and all around that; oops, not everything is
translated, what a shame!  I hope it's not due to lack of
resources, which seems to become notorious in Germany [for things
that really matter at least].)
..
   [1] 
https://www.ptb.de/cms/en/fachabteilungen/abt4/fb-44/ag-441/realisation-of-the-si-second.html
   Rest under
   
https://www.ptb.de/cms/en/fachabteilungen/abt4/fb-44/ag-441/realisation-of-legal-time-in-germany/


  The very beginning of the last reference is misleading and
  wrong:

 Properties of UTC

  The time scale UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) owes its
  existence to the CCIR (International Consultative Committee
  of Radiocommunications) of the ITU (International
  Telecommunications Union) which proposed to broadcast
  time signals worldwide in a coordinated way, i.e.
  by reference to a common time scale.

  The concept for UTC was devised by people from the BIH
  and some other metrology institutes, not by the CCIR;
  and the CCIR has never produced a time scale. It is
  unfortunate that most sources about time and time scales
  are full of inaccuracies and errors like these, perpetuated
  through hundreds of papers and books.

  Steve Allen's page
 [http://www.ucolick.org/~sla/leapsecs/timescales.html]
  gives a carefully researched, reliable account of the history
  of UTC and other time scales, based on the primary sources.
  It is the result of an enormous labor in extracting the facts
  from a mixture with myth and hearsay.

  Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] the big artillery

2014-11-05 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2014-11-05 16:27, Zefram wrote:


...  UTC is always
an integral number of seconds offset from TAI, and so by construction
UTC(NPL) is always an integral number of seconds offset from TAI(NPL).
Hence each of the marks also occurs at the top of a second of TAI(NPL).


  The symbol TAI(k) is defined in
  RECOMMENDATION ITU-R TF.536-2: Time-scale notations
  of 2003 with the text:

  TAI(k): Time-scale realized by the institute “k” and defined
  by the relation TAI(k) = UTC(k) + DTAI, where DTAI
  is the number of integral seconds specified by the
  International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) as
  being the difference between UTC and TAI;

  I do not know whether that notation has ever been put
  to serious use outside this recommendation.

  The contributions by the various metrology institutes to TAI
  are independent from the UTC(k) and are denoted by TA(k) in
  Circular T by the BIPM. The recommendation explains it as:

  TA(k): Atomic Time-scale, as realized by the institute “k”;

  Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] the big artillery

2014-11-04 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


   On 2014-11-04 12:34, Zefram wrote:


UT1 always ticks a second for that ERA increase, but Warner's point
is that the second of UT1 isn't an *SI* second.  The time taken for
that ERA increase, and hence the duration of a UT1 second, very rarely
exactly matches an SI second.  The second of UT1 is an angular unit,
defined as 1/86400 circle (= 15 arcseconds), not a unit of physical time.


   Then which unit would that be? When the IERS compute a difference
   TAI - UT1, how do they do it? Do they convert the UT1 reading in
   any way before they subtract? Or, if they don't, what is the unit
   of the difference, SI seconds or second of UT1?  The IERS
   Conventions certainly do not mention any of this. How could they
   if the units would really differ?


Of course, due to the history, we alias angular seconds to physical
seconds all over the place, especially in the mathematical expressions
that we use to describe relationships between time scales.  Usually we
gloss over that by just calling them both second.  But if you're going
to specify which type of second you mean, better pick the right one for
the time scale.


   I am puzzled by the fact that some people do not seem to accept
   with time what they easily accept with other quantities. For instance
   in geodesy, normal height is expressed in meters (or feet) even
   though it is actually a difference in geopotential observed by
   leveling.

   The expression in meters is derived from some conventional
   normal gravity potential model; comparison with orthonormal
   height thus gives an intuitive notion of its deviation from
   the real gravity field.  But nobody calls for different units
   for orthometric and normal heights, on the grounds that a meter
   of normal height would not be an SI meter of real length
   while a meter of orthometric height would be. On the contrary,
   everybody agrees that normal and orthometric height must use
   the same unit so as to make them comparable. (And, as with time
   scales, there is a bunch of other important notions of height
   to which they need to be compared!)

   The mean solar day on the rotating surface of the Earth is
   given by the comparison of UT1 with TAI (or TT). Its value,
   d(TAI)/d(UT1)·(86 400 SI seconds) would be a bad unit of
   time because it varies remarkably with time. And the mean
   solar day in a geocentric inertial system (as used in
   satellite dynamics) is a different value altogether, namely
   d(TCG)/d(UT1)·(86 400 SI seconds) at the geocenter. Neither
   quantity is used as a unit to express UT1; instead, both
   are derived from expressions of UT1, TAI, and TCG in SI units.

   Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] the big artillery

2014-11-02 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


  On 2014-11-01 23:31, Steve Allen wrote:


In the appropriate contexts there are days of Terrestrial Time,
International Atomic Time, Barycentric Coordinate Time, Geocentric
Coordinate time, GPS system time, BeiDou system time, etc.  Each of
those days is 86400 SI seconds in its own reference frame.

In other contexts there are days of Universal Time, Sidereal Time,
Ephemeris Time.  Each of those days is 86400 of its own kind of
seconds.


   I disagree. One wants to compare all these time scales with
   each other, and comparison requires expression in the
   /same/ unit, not in different units.

   For instance, the differential rate d(TAI - UT1)/d(UT1) is
   published as LOD by the IERS as a dimensionless number
   with unit ms/d. To compute this, one must be able to
   subtract the reading of UT1 from that of TAI, and to
   compute the difference numerically one has to convert to
   equal units. The rate is computed correctly /only/ if
   one assumes that a second of TAI equals a second of UT1.

   I agree that it can still make sense to use different
   symbols for the same unit (such as s{TAI} and s{UT1});
   it is similarly common practice to distinguish masses
   of carbon dioxide from masses of carbon by different
   unit symbols g{CO₂} and g{C} for the same unit gram.

   Nevertheless, the BIPM seem to advise against such use
   [SI brochure 2006, section 5.3.2, p 132]:
Units are never qualified by further information
about the nature of the quantity; any extra
information on the nature of the quantity should
be attached to the quantity symbol and not to the
unit symbol.

   Reference:
 [SI brochure 2006]:
 http://www.bipm.org/utils/common/pdf/si_brochure_8_en.pdf

  Michael Deckers.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] the big artillery

2014-11-02 Thread Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS


  On 2014-11-02 19:04, Warner Losh wrote:


On Nov 2, 2014, at 11:21 AM, Michael Deckers via LEAPSECS 
leapsecs@leapsecond.com wrote:


   For instance, the differential rate d(TAI - UT1)/d(UT1) is
   published as LOD by the IERS as a dimensionless number
   with unit ms/d. To compute this, one must be able to
   subtract the reading of UT1 from that of TAI, and to
   compute the difference numerically one has to convert to
   equal units. The rate is computed correctly /only/ if
   one assumes that a second of TAI equals a second of UT1.


This isn’t entirely true. You have to compute the length of the
different time scales to the same seconds. You can compute the
difference by comparing the clock readings at a fixed point
in time after interpolation to a common grid. This will give you the
difference in terms of the units of the common grid. If you select UT1
as the common grid, then you can also get a rate to come up
with the unit less number.


   Thanks for your reply. If I understand you right you are saying
   that comparisons require the same time unit being used in the
   expression of the time scale values. I agree.

   But I must confess that I do not understand your use of grid.

   Time scales are quantities whose values can always be expressed
   as a sum fundamental epoch + a time value, the latter expressed
   in a common time unit. The difference between the values
   (= phases) of two time scales at the same point in spacetime
   thus is just the sum of the difference of their fundamental
   epochs plus the difference of their time values (both
   differences are again time values).

   And if I compare the rates of the two time scales, then the
   fundamental epochs used to express the values of either become
   irrelevant because they are fixed for each time scale.

   I am not sure which common grid is needed here.


You can also compute the frequency ticking of each time scale
in terms of one or the other (or a third independent one) to compute
the frequency error of one or both of the time scales. Once you have
a frequency error (or difference), conversion of units is trivial. This is
more likely how the LOD drift number is computed. It’s how you compare
different atomic clocks to say this one is slow, that one is fast and assign
a frequency error to each one (and a similar construct to assign the
phase error of the PPS each one is producing). ...


   Yes, measuring the differential quotient d(TAI)/d(UT1) and
   measuring the drift rate LOD = d(TAI - UT1)/d(UT1)
   = d(TAI)/d(UT1) - 1 are obviously equivalent.


.. There are a variety
of ways to measure these differences (though UT1 something has to
involve astronomy since it is an observational time base) and compute
these numbers.


   Well, most time scales are observed, directly or indirectly -- just
   the relationships TCB - TDB and TCG - TT are fixed, and UTC
   and the many civil time scales are determined by fiat.


Also, UT1 were ticking in SI seconds, there would be no rate difference. :)


   No. The unit used to express the values of a time scale does not
   determine the rate of the time scale.

   UT1 is a timescale that ticks 1 SI second when the Earth Rotation Angle
   increases by exactly (2·π rad)/86 636.546 949 141 027 072, and TCB
   ticks 1 SI second when proper time at the barycenter of the solar
   system increases by 1 SI second. Each of these time scales is
   defined or extended to the geoid where their rates differ from
   that of TAI.

   Michael Deckers.


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