Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-03 Thread Jed Rothwell
Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com wrote: Now that's what I'm talking about: http://www.duke-energy.com/news/releases/2013012301.asp http://www.sandia.gov/ess/docs/pr_conferences/2011/3_Ratnayake_Notrees.pdf Okay, the first article says it has 36 MW of capacity and it costs . . . $44

Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-02 Thread Jed Rothwell
Jouni Valkonen jounivalko...@gmail.com wrote: I calculated for german capacity factor 19 % from 2011 data. There was on average 28 GW wind power installed during the year and total output was 46 500 GWh. Therefore I would assume that your sources used misleading data. Your assumption is

Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-02 Thread Jed Rothwell
Jouni Valkonen jounivalko...@gmail.com wrote: It must be considered that windmills in Germany are quite old. And efficiency has improved quite significantly in recent years. The equipment wears out in 20 years and it is scrapped and replaced. Only the towers remain. Fortunately, the tower is

Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-02 Thread James Bowery
In solving the baseload elex coal problem, I had to generate enough ammonia to photosynthetically fix all fossil fuel elex CO2 into algal biomass. One way I looked at was to carpet the Dakotas with wind energy generators to drive conventional water electrolysis to generate hydrogen for the

Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-02 Thread Jed Rothwell
James Bowery jabow...@gmail.com wrote: In solving the baseload elex coal problem, I had to generate enough ammonia to photosynthetically fix all fossil fuel elex CO2 into algal biomass. An interesting hybrid approach. Things that sound complicated like this sometimes work surprisingly well. A

Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-02 Thread James Bowery
On Sat, Feb 2, 2013 at 3:03 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: James Bowery jabow...@gmail.com wrote: In solving the baseload elex coal problem, I had to generate enough ammonia to photosynthetically fix all fossil fuel elex CO2 into algal biomass. An interesting hybrid

[Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-01 Thread Jed Rothwell
This is a little complicated. Honestly, too complicated for a spreadsheet or for my limited mathematical abilities. We have a moving target and two sets of numbers, one ending in December and the other in November. There are reportedly ~60,000 MW of wind turbines in the U.S. as of the end of

Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-01 Thread Jouni Valkonen
The bulk of the new 2012 installations happened on Q4. This amounted total of 8380 MW new wind power. This would imply that the capacity factor in 2012 was near 0.3 what is usually rounded up into ⅓. Official: US Wind Power Accounted For 42% Of New Power Capacity In 2012, Beat Natural Gas

Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-01 Thread Jouni Valkonen
On Feb 2, 2013, at 12:58 AM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: That would produce 155,789 GWH which is still considerably above the actual total of 125,914. Using that crude method of assuming the average was 53,500 nameplate, the capacity would be 27%, not 33%. I did more exact

Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-01 Thread Jed Rothwell
Jouni Valkonen jounivalko...@gmail.com wrote: I did more exact although still crude approximation using following formula: (47GW+(13.1GW-8.4GW)×.7)×.285×24h×366 = 125 900 GWh This formula considers that 8.4 GW was installed on Q4 . . . Thanks! It is actually a little better because the

Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-01 Thread Terry Blanton
On Fri, Feb 1, 2013 at 8:52 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: Close to 29% I guess. Optimistic: The Dutch national wind capacity factor is a dismal 0.186. The German wind capacity factor “is even more dismal at 0.167,” the article said.

Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-01 Thread Terry Blanton
The Brits put it at 15%: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1361316/250bn-wind-power-industry-greatest-scam-age.html#axzz2JhrhkNKt We really need someone like EEStor to make a better battery for grid leveling.

Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-01 Thread Terry Blanton
Again 16 to 20 %: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermittent_Power_Sources

Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-01 Thread Jed Rothwell
Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com wrote: Close to 29% I guess. Optimistic: The Dutch national wind capacity factor is a dismal 0.186. The German wind capacity factor “is even more dismal at 0.167,” the article said. This is not optimistic or pessimistic. This is actual performance data

Re: [Vo]:Would someone care to estimate actual wind capacity factor from this data?

2013-02-01 Thread Jouni Valkonen
It is surprising that everyone hates German wind power expect germans them-self. Windmills are very popular in Germany and local politician must do unpopular decisions such as reducing the tariffs, because German grid infrastructure has hard time to handle the peak loads caused by windmills.