Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
By land and by sea: http://motherboard.vice.com/read/if-we-release-a-small-fraction-of-arctic-carbon-were-fucked-climatologist?trk_source=popular On Wed, Jul 30, 2014 at 9:33 PM, Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com wrote: Horace, wherever you are, looks like you were right: http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/are-siberias-methane-blowholes-the-first-warning-sign-of-unstoppable-climate-change/story-fnjwvztl-1227006746397 On Mon, Sep 8, 2008 at 8:28 AM, Horace Heffner hheff...@mtaonline.net wrote: Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool, Science Daily, Sept 7, 2008: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080903134309.htm http://tinyurl.com/5acch6 This is just the permafrost issue. It doesn't include the ocean stored methane hydrate problem. We are in a canoe bobbing around in the river upstream from a giant waterfall. The water is possibly running too fast to paddle back upstream. Now what do we do? Let's close our eyes, relax, and pretend there is no problem. Best regards, Horace Heffner http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
But Jed, our elites are _very_ concerned about anthropogenic global warming! Why do you trouble their already troubled minds with your discontent? On Wed, Jul 30, 2014 at 9:31 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: This is unspeakably depressing. Somehow it is worse knowing that cold fusion might help. I know how Cassandra felt. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
Horace, wherever you are, looks like you were right: http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/are-siberias-methane-blowholes-the-first-warning-sign-of-unstoppable-climate-change/story-fnjwvztl-1227006746397 On Mon, Sep 8, 2008 at 8:28 AM, Horace Heffner hheff...@mtaonline.net wrote: Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool, Science Daily, Sept 7, 2008: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080903134309.htm http://tinyurl.com/5acch6 This is just the permafrost issue. It doesn't include the ocean stored methane hydrate problem. We are in a canoe bobbing around in the river upstream from a giant waterfall. The water is possibly running too fast to paddle back upstream. Now what do we do? Let's close our eyes, relax, and pretend there is no problem. Best regards, Horace Heffner http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
This is unspeakably depressing. Somehow it is worse knowing that cold fusion might help. I know how Cassandra felt. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool - Cassandra
Cassandra received the power to foretell the future from the god Apollo. Apparently, Apollo instructed the mortal woman and taught her about the art of prophecy because he had an ulterior motive - the god wished to win her affections. Cassandra accepted Apollo as a teacher, but not as a lover. Naturally, the god was insulted by this refusal. So he punished Cassandra. Apollo caused the gift that he gave Cassandra to be twisted, making everyone who heard her true and accurate foretellings of future events believe that they were instead hearing lies. In other words, the wondrous blessing bestowed upon a mortal became instead a terrible curse. She predicted the outcome of many disastrous events. And this, in the end, was to be Cassandra's tragic fate.by birkevics http://www.urbandictionary.com/author.php?author=birkevics August 02, 2008 Mark On July 30, 2014 at 10:31 PM Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: This is unspeakably depressing. Somehow it is worse knowing that cold fusion might help. I know how Cassandra felt. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
On Sep 12, 2008, at 5:57 PM, Robin van Spaandonk wrote: In reply to Horace Heffner's message of Fri, 12 Sep 2008 02:57:31 -0800: Hi, [snip] It is currently thought that the atmosphere of Venus up to around 4 billion years ago was more like that of the Earth with liquid water on the surface. The runaway greenhouse effect may have been caused by the evaporation of the surface water and subsequent rise of the levels of other greenhouse gases.[7] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus Quote:- The temperature and pressure at the surface are 740 K (467°C) and 93 bar, respectively.[1] Note that if all the Earth's oceans existed as water vapour in the atmosphere, the pressure at the surface would be about 250 bar. http://cdsads.u-strasbg.fr/abs/1988Icar...74..472K [snip] Quote from the abstract: Finally, the results of the model are used to speculate about when an Earth-like planet might lose its water and how much closer to the Sun Earth could have formed without ending up like Venus. ...I take it from this that they concluded that it couldn't have ended up like Venus at it's current location. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk [EMAIL PROTECTED] That's right. However, the abstract states The critical solar flux above which water is rapidly lost could be as low as 1.1S0. That's a 10% increase in solar flux. However, there is no mention of the inclusion of the effects of other greenhouse gasses like methane. They attribute the loss of water to hydrogen boiling out of the atmosphere. I don't have access to the article, but based on the abstract, which indicates the study was based on a one dimensional model, namely the loss water vs solar flux, it appears many critical considerations may have been sidestepped, like the presence of methane or other greenhouse gasses. The article apparently considers the loss of water to be photolysis of high altitude water: H2O - O + 2H Other pathways exist for the creation of hydrogen and therefore its eventua rise to the top of the atmosphere and ejection. For example, about 15% of the mass of volcanic ejecta is SO2. Even a mostly CO2 atmosphere can convert SO2 to H2SO4 by the following: CO2 → CO + O SO2 + O → SO3 SO3 + H2O → H2SO4 The more chemically active CO is then free to attack yet another water molecule: CO + H2O - H2 + CO2 Similar pathways exist for freeing hydrogen from methane to produce CO2 and eliminate water from the atmosphere. The H2SO4 depresses the freezing point of water in concentrations of up to 40%. This helps eliminate polar caps and accelerate a runaway. Pools of water on a glacier are well known to absorb heat and to quickly bore through a glacier and then float it on a thin layer of water, making it go rogue. It seems to me a 10% margin of protection against runaway global warming is a very thin veneer of protection at best. Best regards, Horace Heffner http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
On Sep 9, 2008, at 2:36 PM, Robin van Spaandonk wrote: In reply to Horace Heffner's message of Tue, 9 Sep 2008 10:49:11 -0800: Hi, [snip] On Sep 8, 2008, at 11:23 PM, Robin van Spaandonk wrote: If the oceans were to boil off, where would all the water to go? Same place it went on venus, into building a higher altitude more dense atmosphere. [snip] I doubt there was ever much water on Venus. See http://www.daviddarling.info/encyclopedia/V/Venusatmos.html Regards, Robin van Spaandonk [EMAIL PROTECTED] It is currently thought that the atmosphere of Venus up to around 4 billion years ago was more like that of the Earth with liquid water on the surface. The runaway greenhouse effect may have been caused by the evaporation of the surface water and subsequent rise of the levels of other greenhouse gases.[7] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus http://cdsads.u-strasbg.fr/abs/1988Icar...74..472K Best regards, Horace Heffner http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
In reply to Horace Heffner's message of Fri, 12 Sep 2008 02:57:31 -0800: Hi, [snip] It is currently thought that the atmosphere of Venus up to around 4 billion years ago was more like that of the Earth with liquid water on the surface. The runaway greenhouse effect may have been caused by the evaporation of the surface water and subsequent rise of the levels of other greenhouse gases.[7] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus Quote:- The temperature and pressure at the surface are 740 K (467°C) and 93 bar, respectively.[1] Note that if all the Earth's oceans existed as water vapour in the atmosphere, the pressure at the surface would be about 250 bar. http://cdsads.u-strasbg.fr/abs/1988Icar...74..472K [snip] Quote from the abstract: Finally, the results of the model are used to speculate about when an Earth-like planet might lose its water and how much closer to the Sun Earth could have formed without ending up like Venus. ...I take it from this that they concluded that it couldn't have ended up like Venus at it's current location. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
In reply to Horace Heffner's message of Mon, 8 Sep 2008 09:12:24 -0800: Hi, [snip] The immediate problem is passing the tipping point where the methane is released. The tipping point is presumably when the temperature rises above zero deg C and the ground starts to melt. Since the permafrost has already started melting in Siberia, the process has already begun. That means we are now in a race against the clock. Not only do we need to reduce CO2, we need to do it fast enough to actually drop the temperature back below freezing so that the methane production stops. Methane is 20 times more effective than CO2 at the greenhouse effect, and is lighter than air. It eventually oxidizes into CO2, but at high altitude. High altitude water vapor is a very effective greenhouse gas, and at some point the more you get the more you get. Even low altitude water vapour is an effective greenhouse gas, despite the fact that it rains out regularly. If we get enough of it we're permanent toast - fully burnt toast at that. The oceans will boil off and the surface of the earth will likely end up over 200 deg. C. Welcome to New Venus. If the oceans were to boil off, where would all the water to go? Besides, there is also the evaporative cooler effect. The faster the hydrological cycle takes place, the more rapidly heat is removed. I think this is the major negative feedback effect. Also increasing rainfall tends to dissolve more CO2 and carry it into the oceans. Though I don't know how close they are to saturation (another tipping point), though I suspect that they are already effectively in balance with the CO2 in the atmosphere. There is also the possibility that increasing geothermal action will release the methane from the clathrates (and they want to put CO2 down there too???). Regards, Robin van Spaandonk [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
On Sep 8, 2008, at 9:46 AM, Stephen A. Lawrence wrote: Horace Heffner wrote: The immediate problem is passing the tipping point where the methane is released. Methane is 20 times more effective than CO2 at the greenhouse effect, and is lighter than air. It eventually oxidizes into CO2, but at high altitude. High altitude water vapor is a very effective greenhouse gas, and at some point the more you get the more you get. If we get enough of it we're permanent toast - fully burnt toast at that. The oceans will boil off and the surface of the earth will likely end up over 200 deg. C. Welcome to New Venus. And then the carbonates boil out of the rocks and the curtain comes down for the last time, and the last thing we hear is the voice of a fundy saying We *told* you it was the end times, and this proves we were right! But it's very unlikely. If that was that easy to achieve it would have happened already. Not necessarily true. If it can happen on venus it can happen here. Also not valid is the argument it hasn't happened before. Things are different now in several regards. Our dumps, landfills, and the oceans are spewing out manufactured chemicals that we have been producing daily by the hundreds of tons for a century. The stuff is increasing in our atmosphere. For example see: http://www.sft.no/publikasjoner/overvaking/1970/ta1970.pdf We are dumping tons of stuff into the stratosphere daily via jet flights. That has never happened in earth's history. There is some evidence of solar system warming. We may be in a regime the earth has not seen since life evolved. Man adding to the problem may be just enough to tip us into the regime of no return. The *rate* of CO2 increase and temperature change is unprecedented in any record, and we can measure the fact most of the CO2 increase so far is from man. We know what we are producing in the way of CO2. Here's why: Check out the snowball Earth era(s) which occurred in the past. Glaciation was extreme, reaching all the way -- or nearly all the way -- to the Equator. The Earth's albedo went sky-high, as a result of which the effective insolation rate plummeted -- runaway cooling. Why, you may ask, do we no longer have a snowball Earth? What finally stopped the runaway? Apparently what ended it was volcanism coupled with the fact that plant life on Earth was basically dead or dormant. Little CO2 was being pulled from the atmosphere by the plants, but volcanoes went right on pumping the stuff out. The result was massive CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere. Finally the greenhouse effect grew strong enough to melt the snowball, despite the high albedo. But to get to that point the CO2 level had to go sky-high -- many times higher than the baseline value, and far, far higher than it is now. I haven't seen any evidence this is true. My understanding is the ice melted due to vulcanism changing the albedo by depositing dust on the ice. If this happened then there would be no CO2 overshoot. But when the ice melted and the albedo dropped again, all that CO2 was still in the atmosphere, and the result was massive overshoot: Toasted Earth. If we were ever in danger of turning into Nouveau Venus, that was the moment! Best regards, Horace Heffner http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
In reply to Horace Heffner's message of Tue, 9 Sep 2008 10:49:11 -0800: Hi, [snip] On Sep 8, 2008, at 11:23 PM, Robin van Spaandonk wrote: If the oceans were to boil off, where would all the water to go? Same place it went on venus, into building a higher altitude more dense atmosphere. [snip] I doubt there was ever much water on Venus. See http://www.daviddarling.info/encyclopedia/V/Venusatmos.html Regards, Robin van Spaandonk [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
In reply to Horace Heffner's message of Tue, 9 Sep 2008 11:02:40 -0800: Hi, [snip] I haven't seen any evidence this is true. My understanding is the ice melted due to vulcanism changing the albedo by depositing dust on the ice. If this happened then there would be no CO2 overshoot. [snip] In how many places around the world, is the ice dirty due to volcanic dust? The problem with this theory is that snow falls tend to be a lot more frequent than volcanic eruptions, and the next snowfall will cover the dust again. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
In reply to Taylor J. Smith's message of Tue, 09 Sep 2008 20:29:10 +: Hi, [snip] On Sep 8, 2008, at 9:46 AM, Stephen A. Lawrence wrote: Check out the snowball Earth era(s) which occurred in the past. Glaciation was extreme, reaching all the way -- or nearly all the way -- to the Equator. The Earth's albedo went sky-high, as a result of which the effective insolation rate plummeted -- runaway cooling. Why, you may ask, do we no longer have a snowball Earth? What finally stopped the runaway? [snip] Possible alternatives to a past snowball Earth:- 1) The crust has slipped several times, resulting in different land masses being located near the poles and accumulating ice, and leaving evidence that has been interpreted at snowball Earth. 2) Continental drift with the same result(?) IOW maybe there never was a snowball Earth. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
On Mon, Sep 8, 2008 at 8:28 AM, Horace Heffner [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Let's close our eyes, relax, and pretend there is no problem. Just as well since, if the cause is CO2, this will be a rapid positive feedback system which is severly underdamped. Terry
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
On Sep 8, 2008, at 8:45 AM, Terry Blanton wrote: On Mon, Sep 8, 2008 at 8:28 AM, Horace Heffner [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Let's close our eyes, relax, and pretend there is no problem. Just as well since, if the cause is CO2, this will be a rapid positive feedback system which is severly underdamped. Terry It's a little early to tell about the damping, and thus how much time we have. When the arctic ocean is open we may see increased polar evaporation, cloud cover, snow fall, over summer snow, and thus the beginning of an ice age. This won't stop the warming globally though, and other lethal effects like the acidification of the oceans. Warming of the crust should produce crustal deformation and thus more earthquakes and vulcanism, adding to global dimming. Changing weather patterns will create droughts and increased forest fires, and dust bowls, providing more global dimming. These things will slow down the warming, but not stop it. The immediate problem is passing the tipping point where the methane is released. Methane is 20 times more effective than CO2 at the greenhouse effect, and is lighter than air. It eventually oxidizes into CO2, but at high altitude. High altitude water vapor is a very effective greenhouse gas, and at some point the more you get the more you get. If we get enough of it we're permanent toast - fully burnt toast at that. The oceans will boil off and the surface of the earth will likely end up over 200 deg. C. Welcome to New Venus. Best regards, Horace Heffner http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
Re: [Vo]:Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
Horace Heffner wrote: The immediate problem is passing the tipping point where the methane is released. Methane is 20 times more effective than CO2 at the greenhouse effect, and is lighter than air. It eventually oxidizes into CO2, but at high altitude. High altitude water vapor is a very effective greenhouse gas, and at some point the more you get the more you get. If we get enough of it we're permanent toast - fully burnt toast at that. The oceans will boil off and the surface of the earth will likely end up over 200 deg. C. Welcome to New Venus. And then the carbonates boil out of the rocks and the curtain comes down for the last time, and the last thing we hear is the voice of a fundy saying We *told* you it was the end times, and this proves we were right! But it's very unlikely. If that was that easy to achieve it would have happened already. Here's why: Check out the snowball Earth era(s) which occurred in the past. Glaciation was extreme, reaching all the way -- or nearly all the way -- to the Equator. The Earth's albedo went sky-high, as a result of which the effective insolation rate plummeted -- runaway cooling. Why, you may ask, do we no longer have a snowball Earth? What finally stopped the runaway? Apparently what ended it was volcanism coupled with the fact that plant life on Earth was basically dead or dormant. Little CO2 was being pulled from the atmosphere by the plants, but volcanoes went right on pumping the stuff out. The result was massive CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere. Finally the greenhouse effect grew strong enough to melt the snowball, despite the high albedo. But to get to that point the CO2 level had to go sky-high -- many times higher than the baseline value, and far, far higher than it is now. But when the ice melted and the albedo dropped again, all that CO2 was still in the atmosphere, and the result was massive overshoot: Toasted Earth. If we were ever in danger of turning into Nouveau Venus, that was the moment! But even that huge overshoot didn't go high enough to boil the oceans and cook the rocks. And as it seems unlikely we'll be able to get anywhere near such a big bang out of our current activities, if only because we're running out of oil which will force us to cut the CO2 emission rate, it also seems very unlikely we'll get to the Venus point before the temperature levels off. Anyhow that's my impression; take it or leave it. I can't provide references, since this is gleaned from snippets from assorted sources over a number of years, along with a few lunch-time talks with someone who has followed this a lot more closely than I have.
