Hakan, I find no dispute with the difficulties of integrating biofuels (or anything worthwhile) into existing markets. I never have. Nor do I find any dispute that biofuels pose significant benefits to society, no matter what level their use.
But simply switching consumption of fuels from one form of production to another is not, as I said before, a magic bullet. Either form of production requires large amounts of inputs - energy, labor and economic. The most feasible method to reduce the totality of these inputs (setting aside any technological improvements in manufacturing) is to reduce consumption by consumers. And the most feasible methods of reducing consumer use is to improve efficiency and to retrain the consumer populace so as to create different priorities than presently exist. Simply switching to biodiesel or ethanol does not change volumes of consumption. Simply switching fuel sources does not alter fuel economy, nor does it enhance efficient or conservative use - the three most demonstrative factors applicable to reducing transportation energy demand. Switching to biofuels without any alteration in energy awareness and changes in consumption patterns is a superficial "solution" which only stalls for a brief period of time the inevitable consequences of energy gluttony. As for select marketing of biofuels, what you refer to as "dictatorial ambitions," there are considerable opportunities to legally select customer base. The discussion did not arise in response to anyone's race, color, creed or physical disposition. It emerges out of concern for grossly evident lack of principles and ethics. Refusing loggers or construction companies as part of one's customer base or utilizing a tiered price structure, based upon pre-established environmental criteria, is not illegal. Ad hoc refusal and inequitable application is. And one seriously must ask the question...How does the benefit of producing biofuels outweigh the cost when selling 500 gallons of biodiesel to a customer who is known to clearcut and hill top remove with complete disregard for everything but "financial success?" Principles, ethics, morals and philosophy have a great deal more to do with markets and successful marketing than some people care to believe. Todd Swearingen ----- Original Message ----- From: Hakan Falk <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <biofuel@yahoogroups.com> Sent: Monday, August 05, 2002 6:16 AM Subject: Re: [biofuel] Hubbert Peak > > Dear Todd, > > Bio fuels are the only thing that at least resembles a silver bullet > for the transportation industry. As pointed out by an other contributor, > Europe is advancing this. Bio diesel seems to be the more effective > choice and the use of diesel engines is larger in Europe than US. > > The local job creation effect is also a great advantage for any > country that have the agricultural capacity to produce bio fuel. It also > shifts the traditional international market, to local produce of energy. > It can also use existing distribution systems. For Europe it is also > a way out of the faulty system of agriculture subsidies etc.. But it > will also lead to a social restructuring again, with movements back > to the country side. > > Europe have a taxation of fuel, were the price at the pump have > around 70% tax part. The theory around this was that it would force > a development of more fuel efficient cars and voluntary restrictions > of use. It worked, but the weak point is that the governments become > oil dependent, by having such a large part of indirect taxes coming from > fuel. In fact, during the latest price crises, Blair in UK came out and > refused to lower the taxes. The argument was the negative effect this > would have on financing the state services like hospitals etc. > > Europe have a price structure that is perfect for introducing bio fuels, > if the original theories would be adhered to. By easing taxation, the > price at the pump would not have to change by introducing bio fuels. > The problem is the easing of taxation on fuels and to find other ways > to get the taxation, without political turmoil. Diesel is easier because > it already have tax exemptions and a lower tax. Heating oil would be > the easiest, since the taxes are low and the effect large. > > Bio fuels have to be integrated in a quite complicated structure of > vested interests, subsidies and taxes. To get farmers to produce, will > also need some special incentives or removal of incentives that now > inhibits bio fuel production in large scale. We are not only talking about > the technical feasibility, but also of the agricultural web of policies > and politics. On top of this is the large oil companies desires to maintain > their control of the energy business. > > It is going to be hard for new energy distributors to emerge. If those > energy producers want to have selective choices of customers it will > be harder. New producers and distributors will emerge either in an > early stage and with the help of very conscious customers, not the > mass market. Depending on the loopholes, when the web is altered, > it may be space for some new players. In some areas maybe the > society deliberately create the space for new local players. This > because energy and fuels becomes a local produce, instead of the > current international situation. > > Apart from my personal opinion about dictatorial ambitions, I do > not think that the society will allow for selective selling. In fact, > most democratic societies have laws against it. The only possible > manipulation can be done, if you have strong ownership of the > technology by patents and so forth. > > It is much more to say, but I will leave this subject here. > > Hakan > > > > At 04:24 PM 8/4/2002 -0400, you wrote: > >Hakan, > > > >I would hope that you could elaborate on your thought process as > >to how delivery of biofuels to precise markets, preferably > >markets that are already praciticing or exibiting "green > >conscience," is a direct corollary to any historical oil supply > >restrictions initiated by Mid-East nation states and or OPEC > >nation states. > > > >There exist "rewards" marketwide for those who exibit desired > >behavior patterns, patterns that fall in line with manufacturer's > >and distributor's desired end results. "Sales" and price > >incentives are used to maintain and/or induce consumption, > >thereby maintaining demand for a manufacture's services. Why > >should biofuels manufacture and distribution not have its own > >incentives, following specific environmental ethics, effectively > >distributing to end users who are more inclined to a sustainable > >ethic than those who are not? > > > >This is not a political "game." It's a matter of principle and > >ethics. Let the manufacturer who is only concerned with "monetary > >utility" market to all who can pay the toll. Let the manufacturer > >who is concerned more with "environmental utility" select and/or > >groom his or her clientele to achieve the greatest gain in that > >direction. > > > >Unfortunately, many people believe that simple fixes, like > >biofuels use rather than petrol, are some form of "magic pill" > >that solve the problems associated with energy. The sad truth of > >the matter is that the consumption aspect of energy and the ends > >to which the consumption is put to are considerably more > >important than the energy issue itself. To not include a cradle > >to grave principled and ethical approach to biofuels consumption > >wherever possible is nothing more than the same form of > >irresponsibility exhibited by the very idustry that biofuels is > >perceived as demonizing. > > > >And not to be intentionally contrary, but I hesitate at great > >length to agree that "The only thing that counts at the end is > >financial success." I think the following expresses the fallacy > >of such an approach far better than my words might.... > > > >Only after the last tree has been cut down, > >Only after the last river has been poisoned, > >Only after the last fish has been caught, > >Only then will you find that money cannot be eaten. > > > >Cree Indian prophecy. > > > >Todd Swearingen > > > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: Hakan Falk <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > >To: <biofuel@yahoogroups.com> > >Sent: Sunday, August 04, 2002 1:49 PM > >Subject: Re: [biofuel] Hubbert Peak > > > > > > > > > > > > > Dear Todd, > > > > > > This kind of thinking is not productive and if applied, it > >would > > > lead to unwanted side effects. It was the reason for the 1973 > > > oil crises and recently Saddam Hussein tried to pull it off > > > again. Who is the judge and who has the rights, for sure it > > > is neither Saddam Hussein nor US or indeed myself. > > > > > > We should keep away from political games, if we with > >seriousness > > > pursue sustainable energy alternatives. It is enough politics, > > > bad or good, in this world. > > > > > > Let us make bio fuels to a blooming industry, preferable in > > > more hands than current petroleum industry. We need some > > > more independence from fossil fuels and if possible from the > > > current petroleum industry. The only thing that counts at the > > > end is financial success. That does not mean a low price, it > > > is possible to find a lot of customers for high quality also. > > > > > > Hakan > > > > > > > > > At 01:18 PM 8/4/2002 -0400, you wrote: > > > >The real question is, "Should biofuels be used to preserve the > > > >status quo with a "green conscience," or applied only in those > > > >venues where consumers are already exercising a green > > > >conscience?" > > > > > > > >In other words, should a biodiesel manufacturer sell his or > >her > > > >fuel to a construction company that removes mountain tops or > > > >should it sell to construction firms that build in a > > > >"sustainably" conservative fashion, blending into the > >landscape? > > > > > > > >Should a biodiesel manufacturer sell his or her fuel to > >logging > > > >companies that wantonly practice clear cutting, or to > >companies > > > >that are acting cohesively within healthy land "management" > > > >guidelines? > > > > > > > >Should a biodiesel manufacturer sell his or her fuel to > >farmers > > > >who actively use biotech and implement soil depleting > >practices, > > > >or to farmers who are oriented to using less or no chemicals > >and > > > >practicing more nurturing techniques? > > > > > > > >Should a biodiesel manufacturer offer a discount to automobile > > > >owners who put the fuel into 50 mpg passenger cars and a > > > >dis-benefit to energy hogs? > > > > > > > >Biofuels in pursuit of maintaining the status quo only become > >a > > > >temporary stop gap. > > > > > > > >Todd Swearingen > > > > > > > >----- Original Message ----- > > > >From: Hakan Falk <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > >To: <biofuel@yahoogroups.com> > > > >Sent: Sunday, August 04, 2002 10:26 AM > > > >Subject: Re: [biofuel] Hubbert Peak > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Dear Keith, > > > > > > > > > > My point about oil reserves, is that it does not matter if > >the > > > >predictions > > > > > are wrong with a few hundreds of percent, the situation is > > > >fatal as it > > > > > is. We share the opinion that, for many reasons, big > >efforts on > > > >bio > > > > > fuels must taken now. > > > > > > > > > > Hakan > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > At 10:44 PM 8/4/2002 +0900, you wrote: > > > > > >womplex_oo1 wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > >I've done several extrapolations of oil consumption > >using a > > > > > > >spreadsheet, and the oil reserve information provided by > >BP > > > >World Oil > > > > > > >Statistics website: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >http://www.bp.com/centres/energy/world_stat_rev/oil/reserves.asp > > > > > > > > > > > > > >A straight linear extrapolation of oil consumption > >indicates > > > >that all > > > > > > >the world's oil will run out between the years > >2032-2045. > > > >By "run > > > > > > >out" I mean every last drop of oil gone. > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Oil production does not support this linear > >extrapolation > > > >however. > > > > > > >Production will reach a peak sometime before these > >terminal > > > >years, > > > > > > >and decrease exponentially forever after, preventing > >anyone > > > >from ever > > > > > > >extracting all the oil. This Hubbert Peak will have to > > > >occur > > > > > > >sometime before these dates, but the later it occurs the > > > >sharper the > > > > > > >decline in oil production. > > > > > > > > > > > > > >When do you think the Hubbert Peak will occur? > > > > > > > > > > > >There are some other extrapolations one could do. Take a > >range > > > >of > > > > > >issues that positively scream for judicious application of > >the > > > > > >precautionary principle and development of alternatives, > > > >however that > > > > > >would threaten the immediate interests of the > >powers-that-be; > > > >then > > > > > >calculate how long on average they manage to spend in > >denial, > > > >how > > > > > >long on average they manage to drag their feet, how long > >they > > > >get > > > > > >away with prolonged negotiations that only address part of > >the > > > > > >problem and propose inadequate solutions, and how long the > > > >transition > > > > > >period they manage to muscle across, add it all up, add 5, > > > >subtract > > > > > >the square root of the number you started off with, cross > >your > > > >heart > > > > > >and count to 13, and you have the number of decades after > >the > > > >point > > > > > >at which something could still have been done about it. > >This > > > >might > > > > > >perhaps be referred to as "Hubbert's Trough". > > > > > > > > > > > >Now isn't that young master Bush proposing to increase > >energy > > > > > >consumption over the next decade or two? > > > > > > > > > > > >On the other hand, when energy prices shot up in > >California > > > >last > > > > > >year, down went the demand. Maybe the market does indeed > >work > > > > > >sometimes. The Newsweek story below says Americans don't > > > >believe > > > > > >there's an energy crisis because the prices are low. Why > >the > > > >OECD, > > > > > >Todd, me, and a few million others keep saying US gas > >should > > > >cost at > > > > > >least $6 a gallon. > > > > > > > > > > > >Interesting quote in that story: 'Texaco chairman Peter > >Bijur > > > >once > > > > > >said that talk of failing energy supplies remind him of > > > >Cyprian, a > > > > > >Roman who warned in A.D. 250 that "the world has grown > >old... > > > >The > > > > > >rainfall and sun's warmth are both diminishing, the metals > >are > > > >nearly > > > > > >exhausted."' > > > > > > > > > > > >http://www.msnbc.com/news/732017.asp?cp1=1 > > > > > >The Thirst for Oil > > > > > > > > > > > >Actually there's another extrapolation that might be > >useful, > > > >concerning this: > > > > > > > > > > > > >A straight linear extrapolation of oil consumption > >indicates > > > >that all > > > > > > >the world's oil will run out between the years > >2032-2045. > > > > > > > > > > > >The Newsweek story also says this: "... it looked in 1970 > >as > > > >if oil > > > > > >would run out in 33 years-that is, next year. This year, > >the > > > >same > > > > > >calculation puts the day of reckoning in 2046." > > > > > > > > > > > >As Hakan said, survey techniques are much more accurate > >now. > > > >And > > > > > >that's it? We've got there, huh? No more progress, science > > > >stands > > > > > >still. In fact it's quite easy to get a handle on the rate > >of > > > > > >technological improvement. It's exponential, like > >computing > > > >power. > > > > > >Could just be you're looking at an ever-receding goalpost > >with > > > > > >Hubbert's Peak as well as with the final drop of oil being > > > >extracted. > > > > > > > > > > > >This is worth saying again: > > > > > > > > > > > > >One response to the $75 per bbl question above was this: > > > > > > > > > > > > >"... excellent point. We tried to stabilize the price of > > > >Gold for > > > > > > >years. Now its >200$ and mines are viable that weren't > >at > > > >$35/oz. > > > > > > >Plus, many commercial processes that used Gold have > >found > > > > > > >substitutes or ways to use less Gold. Gold-plated > >contacts > > > >are > > > > > > >alloyed with Nickel to extend and strengthen the > >microlayer > > > >of Gold. > > > > > > >Companies have arisen to reclaim Gold off e-scrap. Now, > >the > > > >analogy > > > > > > >is obvious. If Gold were held at $35, then none of these > > > >measures > > > > > > >would be existent. In the same way, tech-progress in > >energy > > > >has been > > > > > > >halted due to cheap oil. I have no doubt whatsoever that > > > >inventors > > > > > > >can come up with a way to make oil at $20-50 per barrel. > >So > > > >let the > > > > > > >price rise. I hope oil goes to $200 per barrel." > > > > > > > > > > > >Yup. > > > > > > > > > > > >So knock out ALL the artificial props from under US gas > > > >prices, > > > > > >charge the REAL price at the pump and everywhere else, > >then on > > > >top of > > > > > >that tax the hell out of it and use the taxes to promote > > > >energy > > > > > >efficiency, energy conservation, and renewable energy. > > > > > > > > > > > >And do it NOW - and not just because of Hubbert's Peak. > >Not > > > >even > > > > > >because of Hubbert's Peak, there are far more pressing > >reasons > > > >than > > > > > >that. > > > > > > > > > > > >I guess you might have to do something about your > >politicians > > > >first, LOL! > > > > > > > > > > > >Keith > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Biofuel at Journey to Forever: > > > > > >http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html > > > > > > > > > > > >Biofuels list archives: > > > > > >http://archive.nnytech.net/ > > > > > > > > > > > >Please do NOT send Unsubscribe messages to the list > >address. > > > > > >To unsubscribe, send an email to: > > > > > >[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > > > > > > >Your use of Yahoo! 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