Hakan, I would hope that you could elaborate on your thought process as to how delivery of biofuels to precise markets, preferably markets that are already praciticing or exibiting "green conscience," is a direct corollary to any historical oil supply restrictions initiated by Mid-East nation states and or OPEC nation states.
There exist "rewards" marketwide for those who exibit desired behavior patterns, patterns that fall in line with manufacturer's and distributor's desired end results. "Sales" and price incentives are used to maintain and/or induce consumption, thereby maintaining demand for a manufacture's services. Why should biofuels manufacture and distribution not have its own incentives, following specific environmental ethics, effectively distributing to end users who are more inclined to a sustainable ethic than those who are not? This is not a political "game." It's a matter of principle and ethics. Let the manufacturer who is only concerned with "monetary utility" market to all who can pay the toll. Let the manufacturer who is concerned more with "environmental utility" select and/or groom his or her clientele to achieve the greatest gain in that direction. Unfortunately, many people believe that simple fixes, like biofuels use rather than petrol, are some form of "magic pill" that solve the problems associated with energy. The sad truth of the matter is that the consumption aspect of energy and the ends to which the consumption is put to are considerably more important than the energy issue itself. To not include a cradle to grave principled and ethical approach to biofuels consumption wherever possible is nothing more than the same form of irresponsibility exhibited by the very idustry that biofuels is perceived as demonizing. And not to be intentionally contrary, but I hesitate at great length to agree that "The only thing that counts at the end is financial success." I think the following expresses the fallacy of such an approach far better than my words might.... Only after the last tree has been cut down, Only after the last river has been poisoned, Only after the last fish has been caught, Only then will you find that money cannot be eaten. Cree Indian prophecy. Todd Swearingen ----- Original Message ----- From: Hakan Falk <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <biofuel@yahoogroups.com> Sent: Sunday, August 04, 2002 1:49 PM Subject: Re: [biofuel] Hubbert Peak > > > Dear Todd, > > This kind of thinking is not productive and if applied, it would > lead to unwanted side effects. It was the reason for the 1973 > oil crises and recently Saddam Hussein tried to pull it off > again. Who is the judge and who has the rights, for sure it > is neither Saddam Hussein nor US or indeed myself. > > We should keep away from political games, if we with seriousness > pursue sustainable energy alternatives. It is enough politics, > bad or good, in this world. > > Let us make bio fuels to a blooming industry, preferable in > more hands than current petroleum industry. We need some > more independence from fossil fuels and if possible from the > current petroleum industry. The only thing that counts at the > end is financial success. That does not mean a low price, it > is possible to find a lot of customers for high quality also. > > Hakan > > > At 01:18 PM 8/4/2002 -0400, you wrote: > >The real question is, "Should biofuels be used to preserve the > >status quo with a "green conscience," or applied only in those > >venues where consumers are already exercising a green > >conscience?" > > > >In other words, should a biodiesel manufacturer sell his or her > >fuel to a construction company that removes mountain tops or > >should it sell to construction firms that build in a > >"sustainably" conservative fashion, blending into the landscape? > > > >Should a biodiesel manufacturer sell his or her fuel to logging > >companies that wantonly practice clear cutting, or to companies > >that are acting cohesively within healthy land "management" > >guidelines? > > > >Should a biodiesel manufacturer sell his or her fuel to farmers > >who actively use biotech and implement soil depleting practices, > >or to farmers who are oriented to using less or no chemicals and > >practicing more nurturing techniques? > > > >Should a biodiesel manufacturer offer a discount to automobile > >owners who put the fuel into 50 mpg passenger cars and a > >dis-benefit to energy hogs? > > > >Biofuels in pursuit of maintaining the status quo only become a > >temporary stop gap. > > > >Todd Swearingen > > > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: Hakan Falk <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > >To: <biofuel@yahoogroups.com> > >Sent: Sunday, August 04, 2002 10:26 AM > >Subject: Re: [biofuel] Hubbert Peak > > > > > > > > > > Dear Keith, > > > > > > My point about oil reserves, is that it does not matter if the > >predictions > > > are wrong with a few hundreds of percent, the situation is > >fatal as it > > > is. We share the opinion that, for many reasons, big efforts on > >bio > > > fuels must taken now. > > > > > > Hakan > > > > > > > > > At 10:44 PM 8/4/2002 +0900, you wrote: > > > >womplex_oo1 wrote: > > > > > > > > >I've done several extrapolations of oil consumption using a > > > > >spreadsheet, and the oil reserve information provided by BP > >World Oil > > > > >Statistics website: > > > > > > > > > > > >http://www.bp.com/centres/energy/world_stat_rev/oil/reserves.asp > > > > > > > > > >A straight linear extrapolation of oil consumption indicates > >that all > > > > >the world's oil will run out between the years 2032-2045. > >By "run > > > > >out" I mean every last drop of oil gone. > > > > > > > > > >Oil production does not support this linear extrapolation > >however. > > > > >Production will reach a peak sometime before these terminal > >years, > > > > >and decrease exponentially forever after, preventing anyone > >from ever > > > > >extracting all the oil. This Hubbert Peak will have to > >occur > > > > >sometime before these dates, but the later it occurs the > >sharper the > > > > >decline in oil production. > > > > > > > > > >When do you think the Hubbert Peak will occur? > > > > > > > >There are some other extrapolations one could do. Take a range > >of > > > >issues that positively scream for judicious application of the > > > >precautionary principle and development of alternatives, > >however that > > > >would threaten the immediate interests of the powers-that-be; > >then > > > >calculate how long on average they manage to spend in denial, > >how > > > >long on average they manage to drag their feet, how long they > >get > > > >away with prolonged negotiations that only address part of the > > > >problem and propose inadequate solutions, and how long the > >transition > > > >period they manage to muscle across, add it all up, add 5, > >subtract > > > >the square root of the number you started off with, cross your > >heart > > > >and count to 13, and you have the number of decades after the > >point > > > >at which something could still have been done about it. This > >might > > > >perhaps be referred to as "Hubbert's Trough". > > > > > > > >Now isn't that young master Bush proposing to increase energy > > > >consumption over the next decade or two? > > > > > > > >On the other hand, when energy prices shot up in California > >last > > > >year, down went the demand. Maybe the market does indeed work > > > >sometimes. The Newsweek story below says Americans don't > >believe > > > >there's an energy crisis because the prices are low. Why the > >OECD, > > > >Todd, me, and a few million others keep saying US gas should > >cost at > > > >least $6 a gallon. > > > > > > > >Interesting quote in that story: 'Texaco chairman Peter Bijur > >once > > > >said that talk of failing energy supplies remind him of > >Cyprian, a > > > >Roman who warned in A.D. 250 that "the world has grown old... > >The > > > >rainfall and sun's warmth are both diminishing, the metals are > >nearly > > > >exhausted."' > > > > > > > >http://www.msnbc.com/news/732017.asp?cp1=1 > > > >The Thirst for Oil > > > > > > > >Actually there's another extrapolation that might be useful, > >concerning this: > > > > > > > > >A straight linear extrapolation of oil consumption indicates > >that all > > > > >the world's oil will run out between the years 2032-2045. > > > > > > > >The Newsweek story also says this: "... it looked in 1970 as > >if oil > > > >would run out in 33 years-that is, next year. This year, the > >same > > > >calculation puts the day of reckoning in 2046." > > > > > > > >As Hakan said, survey techniques are much more accurate now. > >And > > > >that's it? We've got there, huh? No more progress, science > >stands > > > >still. In fact it's quite easy to get a handle on the rate of > > > >technological improvement. It's exponential, like computing > >power. > > > >Could just be you're looking at an ever-receding goalpost with > > > >Hubbert's Peak as well as with the final drop of oil being > >extracted. > > > > > > > >This is worth saying again: > > > > > > > > >One response to the $75 per bbl question above was this: > > > > > > > > >"... excellent point. We tried to stabilize the price of > >Gold for > > > > >years. Now its >200$ and mines are viable that weren't at > >$35/oz. > > > > >Plus, many commercial processes that used Gold have found > > > > >substitutes or ways to use less Gold. Gold-plated contacts > >are > > > > >alloyed with Nickel to extend and strengthen the microlayer > >of Gold. > > > > >Companies have arisen to reclaim Gold off e-scrap. Now, the > >analogy > > > > >is obvious. If Gold were held at $35, then none of these > >measures > > > > >would be existent. In the same way, tech-progress in energy > >has been > > > > >halted due to cheap oil. I have no doubt whatsoever that > >inventors > > > > >can come up with a way to make oil at $20-50 per barrel. So > >let the > > > > >price rise. I hope oil goes to $200 per barrel." > > > > > > > >Yup. > > > > > > > >So knock out ALL the artificial props from under US gas > >prices, > > > >charge the REAL price at the pump and everywhere else, then on > >top of > > > >that tax the hell out of it and use the taxes to promote > >energy > > > >efficiency, energy conservation, and renewable energy. > > > > > > > >And do it NOW - and not just because of Hubbert's Peak. Not > >even > > > >because of Hubbert's Peak, there are far more pressing reasons > >than > > > >that. > > > > > > > >I guess you might have to do something about your politicians > >first, LOL! > > > > > > > >Keith > > > > > > > > > > > >Biofuel at Journey to Forever: > > > >http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html > > > > > > > >Biofuels list archives: > > > >http://archive.nnytech.net/ > > > > > > > >Please do NOT send Unsubscribe messages to the list address. > > > >To unsubscribe, send an email to: > > > >[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > > >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to > >http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ > > > > > > > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Sponsor > > > ADVERTISEMENT > > > > > > > > > > > > Biofuel at Journey to Forever: > > > http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html > > > > > > Biofuels list archives: > > > http://archive.nnytech.net/ > > > > > > Please do NOT send Unsubscribe messages to the list address. > > > To unsubscribe, send an email to: > > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of > >Service. > > > > > > > > > > > >Biofuel at Journey to Forever: > >http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html > > > >Biofuels list archives: > >http://archive.nnytech.net/ > > > >Please do NOT send Unsubscribe messages to the list address. > >To unsubscribe, send an email to: > >[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ > > > > Yahoo! Groups Sponsor > ADVERTISEMENT > > > > Biofuel at Journey to Forever: > http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html > > Biofuels list archives: > http://archive.nnytech.net/ > > Please do NOT send Unsubscribe messages to the list address. > To unsubscribe, send an email to: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service. > > Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Biofuels list archives: http://archive.nnytech.net/ Please do NOT send Unsubscribe messages to the list address. To unsubscribe, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
