People unfamiliar with plug-in hybrid technology may not realize the
full impact of the program I described. See:
http://www.calcars.org/
To make a long story short, after 20 years of development, these cars
would probably get on the order of 200 to 1000 mpg. That is to say,
miles per gallon of gasoline, plus a great deal of electricity, of
course. Fortunately, in the US electricity is not generated with oil.
During the 20-year span of this project we could build enough new,
non-polluting electric power generation capacity to meet the needs of
these cars.
Today's automobiles get ~20 mpg. So if nearly every automobile and
long-haul truck was a plug in hybrid, we would consume somewhere
between 2% to 10% of what we consume today. U.S. production of oil is
falling rapidly and irrevocably because we passed the height of
Hubbard's curve in 1975, but even with this decrease we could easily
meet the demand for 10% of today's consumption.
Bear in mind also that if we began this project, the US would not be
the only country rapidly converting to plug-in hybrids. Japan Europe
and China would follow suit, because if they did not, GM and Ford
would soon put their automobile manufacturers out of business. So
after 20 years not only would US consumption fall by a factor of 10
or more, so would consumption nearly everywhere else in the world.
This would bankrupt OPEC and Al Qaeda.
Needless to say, plug-in hybrids are not the only way we could save
oil and other sources of energy. There are many other technologies
waiting in the wings. The cost, as I said, would be negative. As one
expert put it, when describing the benefits of compact fluorescent
lights, "this is not a free lunch: it is a lunch you are paid to
eat." Not only does the improved hardware save energy, the hardware
itself costs less over the lifetime of the product. This is usually
the case with well-engineered, advanced technology.
Any U.S. president or automobile CEO could have begun this project
any time in the last 100 years, as I said. Certainly anytime since
1970. There is simply no excuse for continued energy shortages, high
prices, pollution, wars for oil, and the "Marshall Plan for for
terrorists and dictators." These things are caused by stupidity,
greed, bad management and -- in the face of terrorism -- energy
policy that is tantamount to treason. (These policies have been
endorsed by both parties and the last six presidents, but I still
think they are close to treason.) Myriad technical solutions to these
problems have been available all along, in plain sight. These
solutions are nowhere near as good as cold fusion, and they are at
least a thousand times more expensive than cold fusion, but they
could easily have ameliorated the problems.
- Jed
- Re: Your Surrender has Been Ordered Jed Rothwell
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