OrionWorks - Steven V Johnson wrote:
An obvious reason for
doing so would be to protect the vulnerability of the technology from
corporate espionage, until it has been officially patented.
Creating confusion is SOP in defense terms - generating decoys right
and left... causing everyone to pursue the wrong target(s).
If that is the strategy it is too clever by half. I do not think it will
protect against anything.
I do get a sense that Rossi considers himself a skilled business
tactician. So far, I don't get that impression, because people skilled
in business do not usually trail a cloud of confusion and contrary
information. But I know practically nothing about his business so I
cannot judge. On the plus side, he did start a successful company.
What's more, some sources say he may get 100 million euros in royalties
early on in the Defkalion deal. It would be astounding if he can pull
off that deal for an untried technology! If that's true then I suppose:
1. Rossi must be a fantastic deal maker.
2. Or, the people with the money know way more about the technology than
I do, and they are solid reasons to be comfortable with it. Maybe they
have proved to the Greek government that it is safe! Maybe things are
much farther along than I know about.
3. Or, the people with the money are stupid. I doubt that!
Edison thought of himself as a skilled businessman. I think he was
inept. He lost tens of millions of dollars in magnetic separation and
other bad ideas back when that was real money. He was constantly
grandstanding, giving out contradictory information, and claiming he had
accomplished one thing or another that he was nowhere near doing (or
hadn't even started). It is reminiscent of Rossi. If Edison had not been
such a superlative genius, and his inventions had not earned so much
money, his poor judgment in business would have wiped him out early on.
That is not say that Rossi depends on his inventive genius to paper over
his weaknesses! Edison did that. Many inventors did. I have no idea if
Rossi does -- but anyway, that is a common pattern in history. The
Wrights sure did it. They almost blew their chances to make any money,
waiting until 1908 to demonstrate in public.
Another aspect of Edison that is reminiscent of Rossi is that he kept
doing things everyone thought was impossible. Edison was enveloped in
clouds of smoke of confusion, and on one occasion in literal smoke from
burning prototype bulbs, generators and curtains at his house when he
tried to demonstrate incandescent lights to his investors. (Mrs. Edison
called the investors into the next room for a buffet and then she and
the maid beat out the flames.) When the (figurative) smoke cleared
months later, there stood Edison with of the most important discoveries
in the history of technology. In the end he accomplished everything he
claimed he would, and far more than his detractors thought possible.
Edison did that time after time, with the phonograph, the incandescent
bulb, movies and other discoveries. People kept underestimating him, and
he kept blowing his critics out of the water. He gave his investors
nightmares while he struggled to pull off these things.
Edison also failed to pull off several key discoveries, after wasting
millions on them -- but he succeeded more often than he failed. I do not
know what Rossi's track record is.
- Jed
