Alain Sepeda <alain.sep...@gmail.com> wrote: It seems oils companies like Amoco, Shell have participated the research. > Today they participate investment in renewables, like do oild kingdoms, to > prepare for the transition... >
A few scientists at these companies did research. I doubt that upper management was aware of their work. Furthermore, even if management was aware, I doubt they would look at these results and think that they might result in practical technology any time in the next 50 years. > what you describe is better explained by self-delusion like the one of hot > fusionist... > I feel that oil companies won't be the most victims of that delusion (they > will have few decade to die). > Studies by Christensen (the author of "The Innovator's Dilemma") show that existing corporations seldom survive the transition to a radical new technology. He has many case studies. For example, he showed that when ships converted from sail to steam power, the leading ship builders did not survive the transition. They did not even try to make steamships. They did make steel hulls for sailing ships, so they might have built steamships. In some sense it did not even occur to them. He has many 20th century examples. I happen to like that one. One of the problems for the oil companies will be that they will have no relevant experience, research capabilities, or marketing skills for cold fusion. Selling cold fusion will mainly be the business of selling household appliances, automobiles, and factory equipment. This is not something an oil company does. They are less qualified to do it than, say, Dell computer, and far less qualified than General Electric or Toshiba. Having a ton of money and a bunch of petroleum engineers will not give them the skills they need in this market. Digging wells and shipping millions of tons of oil is not remotely like manufacturing a battery or a cold fusion device. - Jed
