Jed, your comparison seems appropriate at first glance, except you forgot one
thing.
Actuarial Studies and Medicine are fields of science with solid
mathematical,experimental and actual data. It is hard science that is
refutable and falsiable and has stood the test of time.
Global Warming and Weather forecasting is based on assumptions made in the
modelling. The models used are all assumptions that are no more accurate that
a 10 year old guessing what the weather will be like tommorrow. Supporters of
Global Warming are only able to claim good results because of the
aforementioned "all-inclusive" symptoms list. Everything is taken as proof of
the theory.
Jojo
----- Original Message -----
From: Jed Rothwell
To: vortex-l@eskimo.com
Sent: Friday, August 22, 2014 9:24 AM
Subject: Re: [Vo]:global warming?
ChemE Stewart <cheme...@gmail.com> wrote:
Bullsh&t
The comparison between weather forecasting and long term climate change is
not bullshit at all. It has been made by many experts. There are many other
scientific fields with similar limitations, and also fields such as history,
psychology, social science research, some areas of engineering and physics, and
much else in which similar statistical proof is available but it does not work
in a more granular analyses, or on a shorter timescale. This is common
knowledge. You can learn about it in detail. You should not call this concept
"bullshit" if you have not studied it. Frankly, you are out of line in this
forum publishing such an ignorant dismissal.
To be a little more specific, do you have the notion that an insurance
company can tell you the year and month when you will die? That would be magic.
Unless you happen to have a serious, terminal disease, no one can tell you
that. But any insurance company can sell you a policy, and they can be sure
that in the aggregate, their policies will make money, barring some major
disaster such as 1918 avian influenza.
I would also point out that short term weather forecasts are incredibly
accurate these days, and the error ranges are well understood by forecasters.
Everyone knows you can predict the weather in Georgia, but not in southern
Pennsylvania. (Or, for Pennsylvania, you can say: "there will be rain,
sunshine, clouds and bright sun repeated at random times during the day," which
is a sort of forecast, after all.)
- Jed
